Can Cloud Seeding Save Iran from Its Historic Drought?

Iran has initiated cloud-seeding operations to induce rainfall amid its most severe drought in decades, targeting the Urmia lake basin. This method, which involves dispersing chemical salts into clouds to enhance precipitation, aims to alleviate record-low rainfall and potential water shortages in Tehran. With officials warning of possible rationing and evacuations, this urgent action highlights the dire state of water resources across the country.

Last updated: 18 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Cloud-seeding operations began on Saturday over the Urmia lake basin, which has been severely affected by drought, resulting in significant water shortages across Iran. The country’s meteorological organisation reported an alarming 89% decrease in rainfall this year compared to the long-term average, marking the driest autumn in 50 years. President Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed concerns over the dwindling water supply in Tehran, warning that rationing may become necessary if rainfall remains insufficient.

Key takeaways

• Iran is deploying cloud-seeding to combat the worst drought in decades.
• The Urmia lake basin, where operations commenced, is critically dry.
• Record low rainfall has led to warnings of potential water rationing in Tehran.

Timeline: how we got here

The timeline of Iran's drought and subsequent cloud-seeding initiative is as follows:

• 1 January 2023: Iran experiences a significant decrease in rainfall, signalling the start of a severe drought.
• 15 October 2023: Reports indicate that rainfall has dropped by 89% compared to historical averages.
• 14 October 2023: Cloud-seeding operations commence over the Urmia lake basin.
• 18 October 2023: The Iranian president warns of potential water rationing in Tehran.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Cloud-seeding has officially begun in Iran as a response to the dire drought conditions affecting the Urmia lake basin. The Iranian meteorological organisation has reported some rainfall in western regions, although the overall situation remains critical.

What was already established

Prior to these operations, it was well-documented that Iran was facing one of its worst droughts in recent history, with significant water shortages reported across various regions. The situation was exacerbated by long-term climatic changes and poor management of water resources.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

While the immediate effects of Iran's drought may not directly impact UK consumers, there are broader implications for global agricultural markets and climate discussions. Increased water scarcity in regions like Iran can lead to spikes in agricultural product prices, which may eventually affect UK consumers.

Businesses and jobs

As Iran struggles with water shortages, key industries such as agriculture may face disruptions, potentially impacting UK businesses involved in agricultural trade or related sectors. Reduced agricultural output in Iran could influence global supply chains and food prices.

Policy and regulation

The Iranian government's response to the drought, including cloud-seeding and penalties for excessive water consumption, may serve as a case study for UK policymakers as they consider their own strategies for climate resilience and water conservation.

Numbers that matter

• 89%: The decrease in rainfall this year compared to the long-term average.
• 50 years: The duration since Iran has experienced such a dry autumn.
• Single-digit percentages: Current water levels in Tehran's dams, indicating a critical shortage.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Cloud-seeding: A weather modification technique that involves dispersing substances into the atmosphere to induce precipitation.
• Urmia Lake: Iran's largest lake, which has largely dried up due to prolonged drought and mismanagement.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, Iran will continue cloud-seeding operations in efforts to generate rainfall and relieve water shortages. Monitoring of rainfall patterns and their effects will be crucial.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the situation evolves, observers should watch for potential changes in water management policies within Iran, alongside the effectiveness of cloud-seeding in mitigating the drought.

Signals to watch

• Updates on rainfall levels following cloud-seeding operations.
• Government announcements regarding water rationing in Tehran and other regions.
• International responses to Iran's drought and climate management strategies.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about global weather patterns, particularly in regions affected by drought.
• Consider the implications of water scarcity on agricultural goods and prices.

Don’t

• Assume that local drought conditions do not have global consequences.
• Neglect the importance of sustainable water management practices.

Checklist

• Monitor news updates on Iran's drought and cloud-seeding efforts.
• Review personal water usage and consider conservation measures.
• Stay aware of potential impacts on food prices and availability.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

There are uncertainties surrounding the effectiveness of cloud-seeding, as results can vary significantly based on environmental conditions. Additionally, while cloud-seeding may provide short-term relief, it does not address the underlying issues of water management and climate change that have led to the current drought conditions.

Bottom line

Iran’s cloud-seeding operations represent a critical response to an unprecedented drought, highlighting the urgent need for effective water management strategies. As the situation develops, both Iranian citizens and the international community must consider the broader implications of water scarcity in the context of climate change and resource management.

FAQs

What is cloud-seeding?

Cloud-seeding is a weather modification technique that involves injecting chemicals into clouds to encourage rainfall, aimed at alleviating drought conditions.

Why is Iran facing such severe drought?

Iran's severe drought can be attributed to a combination of climatic changes, poor water management, and record low rainfall levels, impacting water resources nationwide.

What can be done to address water shortages in Iran?

To address water shortages, Iran needs to implement sustainable water management practices, invest in infrastructure, and possibly continue using cloud-seeding as a short-term solution.