Is China's Expanding Navy Set to Dominate the Seas?

China's shipbuilding industry has surged in recent years, positioning the country as a dominant force in naval power and global shipping. With over 60% of the world’s shipbuilding orders going to Chinese shipyards in 2023, the nation is not only expanding its commercial fleet but also rapidly developing its military capabilities. This article explores the implications of China's maritime ambitions and the strategic responses from the US and its allies.

Last updated: 26 October 2023 (BST)

Key Takeaways

• China's shipbuilding capacity is significantly larger than that of the US, with a production rate 200 times greater.
• The Chinese Navy now boasts the largest fleet in the world, with 234 warships compared to the US's 219.
• China's dual-use shipyards accelerate military and civilian ship production, enhancing its strategic advantage.
• Pending technologies, like underwater drones, may change naval warfare dynamics, although their effectiveness remains unproven.
• The geopolitical implications of China's naval expansion may trigger escalating tensions in regions like the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

The Rise of Chinese Shipbuilding

Over the past two decades, China has transformed its shipbuilding industry into a global powerhouse. With substantial government investment, the country has increased its shipbuilding orders dramatically. As of this year, Chinese shipyards have secured over 60% of the world's orders, outpacing competitors by both volume and speed of production.

Comparative Capacity

Experts estimate that China's overall shipbuilding capacity is around 200 times that of the United States. Nick Childs, a maritime expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, describes the scale of China's shipbuilding as "extraordinary" and "eye-watering". This capacity not only applies to commercial vessels but also extends to military applications.

China's Naval Expansion

Currently, the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has the largest fleet globally, counting 234 vessels against the 219 of the US Navy. However, while the US fleet boasts a higher overall displacement due to its larger aircraft carriers, the Chinese are closing the gap, producing a significant number of warships in a shorter timeframe.

Key Shipyards and Production Stats

China’s leading shipyards, including Dalian, Guangzhou, Jiangnan, and Hudong-Zhonghua, have built 39 warships from 2019 to 2023, with a total displacement of 550,000 tonnes. In comparison, the UK's Royal Navy has an estimated total displacement of around 399,000 tonnes. This impressive output highlights China's focus on naval capability and the strategic importance of its shipyards.

Technological Advancements and Limitations

While China has made significant strides in shipbuilding, it still faces limitations in naval technology. The Chinese navy operates only two aircraft carriers and has fewer submarines compared to the US. Some analysts argue that Chinese submarines are less sophisticated than their American counterparts, which have benefited from decades of development since the Cold War.

Emerging Technologies

Recent satellite imagery indicates that China is investing heavily in expanding its naval bases, particularly at Yulin, where new piers have been constructed for its Jin-class submarines, which are capable of carrying nuclear missiles. Additionally, new unmanned underwater drones are reportedly set to be unveiled, suggesting that China is not only expanding its fleet but also modernising its capabilities.

Geopolitical Implications

China's maritime ambitions are not merely economic; they are deeply intertwined with national security and geopolitical strategy. President Xi Jinping has framed naval expansion as crucial for safeguarding national interests and preventing historical "humiliations". The issue of Taiwan remains particularly contentious, with Beijing asserting its intention to "reunify" the island, a situation that could escalate into conflict.

Potential for Conflict

As Chinese naval power grows, so does the potential for confrontation, particularly in the South China Sea and around Taiwan. The US, bound by law to support Taiwan's defence, views China's military posturing as a serious threat. Recent military exercises by the Chinese navy, including live-fire drills near Australia and naval operations close to Japan, have raised concerns among regional allies.

China's Strategic Maritime Messaging

China's military parades and public displays of naval power are part of a broader strategy to project strength and unity. Prof Hu Bo from Peking University asserts that China is not seeking to disrupt global stability but is instead focusing on national security. However, the increasing boldness of China's naval operations has led to heightened tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.

The Dual-Use Advantage

One of China's strategic advantages lies in its dual-use shipyards, which are capable of producing both commercial and military vessels. This integration allows for rapid scaling of naval capabilities during times of conflict, providing a significant edge over adversaries who may be constrained by separate military and civilian shipbuilding infrastructures.

What Lies Ahead?

The future of naval power is uncertain, and while China is currently leading in shipbuilding capacity, the effectiveness of its navy on the global stage remains to be seen. The ability to project power beyond its shores will be a critical factor in determining China's role in future maritime conflicts. Analysts are particularly focused on how far China can extend its influence, especially in the Indian Ocean and beyond.

Conclusion

As the world watches China's naval expansion, the strategic implications are profound. The balance of power in the Asia-Pacific is shifting, and the US and its allies must adapt to this evolving landscape. Whether China's maritime ambitions lead to increased stability or conflict remains an open question, but the urgency for a robust response is clear. As nations navigate these complex waters, the stakes have never been higher.

FAQs

What is China's current naval capacity compared to the US?

China currently operates 234 warships, while the US Navy has 219 vessels. However, the US fleet has a greater overall tonnage due to its larger aircraft carriers.

How has China's shipbuilding industry changed in recent years?

China has significantly increased its shipbuilding capacity, now accounting for over 60% of global shipbuilding orders. This surge is attributed to substantial government investment.

What implications does China's naval power have for Taiwan?

China views Taiwan as a breakaway province and has not ruled out the use of force for reunification. This situation could lead to heightened tensions and potential conflict with the US, which supports Taiwan's defence.

What are the technological advancements in China's navy?

China has been developing new technologies, including unmanned underwater drones and expanding its naval bases. However, some of these technologies remain unproven.

How does China's dual-use shipbuilding strategy work?

China's dual-use shipyards can produce both commercial and military vessels, allowing for rapid scaling of naval capabilities in times of conflict, providing a strategic advantage.