Can Trump Revitalize the 'Toothless' Asian Summit?

The recent ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur marked a significant moment for the region, showcasing a notable "peace deal" between Thailand and Cambodia amid ongoing conflicts. While US President Donald Trump leveraged this opportunity to further his diplomatic agenda, the summit raised questions about ASEAN's effectiveness and relevance in addressing regional issues. The summit underscored both the potential of ASEAN to unite member states and the challenges it faces in enforcing its principles of non-interference and peaceful conflict resolution.

Last updated: 05 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The ASEAN Summit concluded with a spotlight on the peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia, a conflict that had escalated recently. President Trump's presence at the summit not only facilitated this agreement but also resulted in several trade deals that could impact ASEAN’s economic landscape. While this summit provided a platform for diplomatic dialogue, it also highlighted ASEAN’s ongoing struggles with its core principles, particularly in managing internal affairs of member states.

Key takeaways

The ASEAN Summit succeeded in facilitating a peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia, although this does not resolve the underlying issues.
Trump's attendance underscored the US's influence in the region, leveraging trade deals to foster cooperation.
ASEAN's effectiveness continues to be questioned, particularly regarding its inability to address major crises like the Myanmar civil war.

Timeline: how we got here

The ASEAN Summit has evolved significantly since its inception in 1967. Key milestones leading to the recent summit include:

July 2023: Open conflict erupts between Thailand and Cambodia over border disputes.
September 2023: Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim brokers an initial ceasefire between the two nations.
October 2023: The ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur concludes, with Trump officiating a "peace deal" and announcing trade agreements.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The signing of the peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia at the ASEAN Summit is a new development that brings hope for de-escalation. Additionally, Trump’s economic threats reportedly pressured both nations to cease hostilities quickly.

What was already established

ASEAN's history of diplomacy has often been marred by its principle of non-interference, leading to criticisms of its effectiveness in conflict resolution. Past efforts to mediate disputes, such as the ongoing Myanmar civil war, have often yielded limited results.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

UK consumers may see indirect impacts from the agreements made at the ASEAN Summit, particularly through changes in global trade dynamics. As ASEAN countries are key suppliers of various goods, any shifts in trade policies could affect prices and availability in the UK market.

Businesses and jobs

UK businesses that trade with Southeast Asia may benefit from improved relations and trade agreements. The ASEAN region is vital for various sectors, including textiles, electronics, and agricultural products, and any stabilisation could open new opportunities for UK exporters.

Policy and regulation

UK policymakers will be closely monitoring developments in ASEAN as they could influence trade negotiations and foreign policy strategies. Enhanced stability in Southeast Asia may lead to more robust economic ties, which could also impact the UK's approach to global trade agreements.

Numbers that matter

5: The number of ASEAN member states that signed trade agreements with the US during the summit.
1.4 million: The population of East Timor, which recently became an ASEAN member.
4 years: The duration of Myanmar's civil war that ASEAN has struggled to address.

Definitions and jargon buster

ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a regional intergovernmental organisation comprising ten Southeast Asian countries.
Non-interference: A principle of ASEAN that discourages intervention in the internal affairs of member states.
Ceasefire: An agreement between conflicting parties to stop fighting temporarily.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Attention will focus on the implementation of the peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia and how this could influence regional stability. The outcomes of the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping will also be closely watched.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the dust settles on the latest ASEAN developments, the ongoing situation in Myanmar will likely remain a point of contention. Additionally, the effectiveness of the new trade agreements will be evaluated as economic relations evolve.

Signals to watch

Updates on the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia.
Reactions from the Myanmar military government to ASEAN’s calls for peace.
Economic indicators reflecting changes in trade patterns due to new agreements.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about developments in ASEAN that could affect trade and diplomatic relations.
Monitor news regarding the Myanmar civil war to understand regional stability issues.

Don’t

Ignore the implications of ASEAN's effectiveness on global trade dynamics.
Assume that peace agreements will lead to immediate resolution of underlying conflicts.

Checklist

Review trade agreements with ASEAN countries to identify impacts on your business.
Check for updates on the Thailand-Cambodia situation to assess regional peace prospects.
Stay updated on the UK government’s response to ASEAN developments.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

Despite the recent peace agreement, unresolved tensions between Thailand and Cambodia remain, and the long-standing border dispute is far from settled. Furthermore, ASEAN's principle of non-interference limits its ability to impose solutions on member states. Critics argue that this makes the organisation ineffective in handling serious crises, particularly the ongoing conflict in Myanmar. There are uncertainties surrounding the implementation of agreements made during the summit, and skeptics question whether these will lead to meaningful change.

Bottom line

The ASEAN Summit showcased both the potential and limitations of the organisation in facilitating peace and economic cooperation in Southeast Asia. While the peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia is a positive step, the challenges ASEAN faces in addressing internal conflicts and maintaining relevance are significant. Future developments will determine whether ASEAN can adapt to changing geopolitical dynamics and effectively manage its member states.

FAQs

What is the ASEAN Summit?

The ASEAN Summit is a biennial meeting where leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations gather to discuss regional issues, trade agreements, and diplomatic relations.

How does ASEAN impact global trade?

ASEAN members are key players in global trade, and their agreements can influence tariffs, trade routes, and economic policies, which subsequently affect international markets.

Why is ASEAN's principle of non-interference controversial?

Non-interference limits ASEAN's ability to intervene in member states' internal issues, which some critics argue hampers its effectiveness in resolving conflicts and promoting stability.