Will Lifting the Curfew in Tanzania's Main City Restore Calm After Election Unrest?

The Tanzanian police have lifted a night-time curfew in Dar es Salaam, imposed after violent election protests led to significant unrest. Following the election, which saw President Samia Suluhu Hassan declared the winner with 98% of the vote, deadly clashes between security forces and opposition supporters resulted in numerous fatalities. As the nation begins to recover, life is slowly returning to normal, but concerns over casualties and government accountability remain high.

Last updated: 27 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As of now, the immediate aftermath of the recent unrest in Tanzania is a cautious return to normality. The night-time curfew that restricted movement in Dar es Salaam has been lifted, allowing shops to reopen and traffic to resume, albeit with some disruptions such as long queues at petrol stations. The government has cut internet access nationwide, which has severely impacted communication and access to information for citizens. Families are still searching for missing relatives, while reports of high mortality rates during the protests have raised alarms among human rights groups.

Key takeaways

The night-time curfew in Dar es Salaam has been lifted, allowing some businesses to reopen.
President Samia Suluhu Hassan has been inaugurated following an election marred by violence.
Human rights organisations report significant fatalities from clashes, with some estimates suggesting over 800 deaths.
The government has not released official casualty figures, and concerns about transparency remain.
Opposition leaders were barred from contesting the election under controversial circumstances.

Timeline: how we got here

The events leading to the current situation in Tanzania unfolded rapidly:

28 October 2023: President Samia Suluhu Hassan is sworn in after winning the election with 98% of the vote.
27 October 2023: Night-time curfew is imposed in Dar es Salaam following violent protests.
26 October 2023: Reports emerge of deadly clashes between police and opposition supporters.
25 October 2023: Tanzania holds a contested general election, with opposition leaders barred from participation.
24 October 2023: Protests erupt in response to allegations of electoral misconduct and violence.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Following the lifting of the curfew, some normalcy has returned to Dar es Salaam, although many citizens are still grappling with the aftermath of the violence. The government’s response to the protests has drawn criticism from human rights groups, and officials have been accused of downplaying the severity of the situation.

What was already established

The election held on 25 October has been widely condemned for lacking democratic standards, as international observers noted significant irregularities. The opposition has claimed that the election was a sham, particularly as two key leaders were unable to participate due to legal and political manoeuvring.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For UK citizens with ties to Tanzania, particularly those with family and friends in the region, the unrest may impact communication and connectivity due to the internet shutdown. The escalating violence and uncertainty could lead to increased costs for goods and services, affecting prices for imported Tanzanian products in the UK.

Businesses and jobs

The situation has disrupted local businesses significantly, particularly in Dar es Salaam, where many shops have been forced to close. This disruption could have a ripple effect, influencing Tanzanian exports and imports, which may impact UK businesses reliant on Tanzanian goods.

Policy and regulation

UK policymakers may need to monitor the situation closely, particularly regarding human rights implications and the stability of the region. Diplomatic relations could be influenced by the government’s handling of the protests and allegations of human rights violations.

Numbers that matter

98%: Percentage of votes received by President Samia Suluhu Hassan in the recent election.
800+: Estimated number of deaths reported by the Chadema party since the protests began.
500: Credible evidence suggesting at least this many fatalities according to a diplomatic source.
10: Minimum number of deaths reported by the UN human rights office in three cities during the unrest.
3: Number of key opposition leaders barred from contesting the election.

Definitions and jargon buster

Chadema: A prominent opposition party in Tanzania, known for its advocacy for democratic reforms.
Sadc: Southern African Development Community, a regional intergovernmental organisation comprising 16 member states in southern Africa.
Municipal Burial Services: Local authority services responsible for the handling and burial of deceased individuals.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, it is crucial to monitor developments as the government stabilises and assesses the fallout from the protests. Observers should pay attention to any additional measures taken by the government to restore order and the response of civil society.

Medium term (1–6 months)

In the coming months, the focus will likely be on the political landscape of Tanzania, particularly the potential for opposition parties to regroup and challenge the current administration. Furthermore, the international community will be watching closely for signs of reform or continued repression.

Signals to watch

Official government reports on casualty figures and protest-related incidents.
Reactions from international human rights organisations regarding the treatment of protestors.
Changes in the political landscape, including potential legal challenges by opposition parties.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed through credible news sources regarding the situation in Tanzania.
Maintain communication with family and friends in the region to ensure their safety.
Support human rights organisations advocating for justice and accountability.

Don’t

Assume that the situation is stable; continue to monitor developments as they unfold.
Engage in speculation about missing persons without verified information.
Neglect the importance of supporting calls for transparency and accountability from the Tanzanian government.

Checklist

Verify information from multiple sources before sharing updates on the situation.
Consider the implications of the unrest on community ties and support systems.
Engage with community resources that provide support for affected individuals.
Understand the broader political implications of the election results on regional stability.
Keep abreast of guidance from UK foreign affairs regarding travel or engagement in Tanzania.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The situation in Tanzania remains fluid, with ongoing risks related to government repression and human rights violations. While some reports suggest high casualty figures, the government has not provided official numbers, leading to uncertainty about the scale of the violence. Additionally, the potential for further unrest exists as opposition parties assess their next steps in the wake of the elections.

Bottom line

The political landscape in Tanzania is fraught with tension following the recent elections and subsequent protests. With a significant number of casualties reported and ongoing concerns about government accountability, it is essential for UK citizens to remain vigilant and informed about the situation. As life begins to return to normal, the implications of these events will likely resonate beyond Tanzania’s borders, affecting regional stability and international relations.

FAQs

What caused the protests in Tanzania?

The protests in Tanzania were sparked by allegations of electoral misconduct following the general election held on 25 October 2023, where opposition leaders were barred from participating.

How many people have died in the protests?

Estimates of fatalities vary, with reports suggesting over 800 deaths according to opposition sources, while a diplomatic source indicated at least 500 deaths.

What is the current situation in Dar es Salaam?

As of now, the night-time curfew has been lifted, and businesses are beginning to reopen, although many citizens are still searching for missing loved ones and dealing with the aftermath of the unrest.