Has Trump Delivered on His Promise to Lower Prices on Gas and Groceries?

In the aftermath of President Donald Trump's re-election, he made bold promises to address inflation and reduce living costs in the United States. A year into his presidency, the reality of grocery, energy, and car prices reveals a complex picture, with many costs having risen instead of fallen, raising questions about the effectiveness of his policies. This analysis examines the claims made by Trump and the actual trends in prices, alongside expert insights into the factors influencing these changes.

Last updated: 27 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As of October 2025, grocery prices in the United States have increased by 2.7% over the past year, with some specific items experiencing much sharper rises. While President Trump promised to immediately lower costs upon taking office, data shows that prices have generally continued to climb. This situation raises concerns for American households as they grapple with a higher cost of living, despite the administration's claims of progress. Experts highlight that the president has limited control over food prices, which are influenced by a myriad of factors including tariffs, immigration policies, and international market conditions.

Key takeaways

Grocery prices rose by 2.7% in the year leading to September 2025.
Experts indicate that presidential influence on food prices is minimal.
Energy prices have also risen, contrary to Trump's campaign pledges.
Consumer goods like cars have seen significant price increases due to tariffs.
Many costs, including gasoline, remain above the levels Trump pledged to achieve.

Timeline: how we got here

Here’s a brief timeline of key events and milestones leading up to the current situation:

August 2024: Trump pledges to reduce grocery and energy prices upon taking office.
January 2025: Trump officially assumes the presidency; average grocery prices begin to rise.
March 2025: Egg prices peak, attributed to bird flu outbreaks.
August 2025: Residential electricity rates hit 17.62 cents per kWh, up from 15.94 cents in January.
September 2025: Average car prices exceed $50,000 for the first time.
October 2025: Grocery prices reported to have increased by 2.7% over the previous year.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent reports indicate that grocery prices continue to rise, with specific items like eggs experiencing fluctuations due to market conditions. The current inflation rate reflects broader economic challenges, including tariffs imposed during Trump's presidency.

What was already established

It has been long established that the president has limited control over short-term price fluctuations in the food market, as many external factors influence costs. Experts have consistently pointed to tariffs and immigration policies as contributing factors to inflation.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

While the primary focus is on the US economy, any significant shifts in American inflation could have ripple effects on the UK. For instance, rising grocery prices in the US may impact import costs and global markets, potentially leading to inflationary pressures in the UK as well.

Businesses and jobs

Increased tariffs and immigration policies in the US could affect UK businesses that rely on exports to the US market. Additionally, supply chain disruptions may arise from US policy changes, impacting UK exporters and importers.

Policy and regulation

UK policymakers will be closely monitoring how Trump's administration manages inflation and economic recovery, as shifts in US policy could inform local strategies in addressing similar challenges in the UK economy.

Numbers that matter

2.7%: Increase in grocery prices in the 12 months to September 2025.
17.62 cents: Average residential electricity rate in August 2025, up from 15.94 cents in January.
$50,000: Average price of a new car in September 2025, a record high.
$3.125: Average price of a gallon of gas when Trump took office.
$3.079: Current average price of a gallon of gas, still above Trump's pledge.

Definitions and jargon buster

Tariffs: Taxes imposed on imported goods, which can affect prices domestically.
Inflation: The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, eroding purchasing power.
Supply chain: The network between a company and its suppliers to produce and distribute a specific product.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Watch for new inflation reports to see if the trends continue to rise or if there are signs of stabilisation. Monitor government responses to rising prices, as these could influence market conditions.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Evaluate the effects of any upcoming policy changes related to tariffs or immigration that may impact inflation rates and consumer prices. Changes in international trade agreements could also play a significant role.

Signals to watch

Monthly inflation reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Changes in tariffs or trade policies announced by the Trump administration.
Market responses to new data related to energy prices and supply chains.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about inflation trends and how they affect your purchasing power.
Consider adjusting budgets to accommodate rising costs in groceries and utilities.
Keep an eye on policy changes that may affect prices in the near future.

Don’t

Don’t panic-buy or stockpile items, as this can exacerbate supply issues.
Don’t overlook the impact of tariffs on everyday goods.
Don’t ignore the potential for price fluctuations in essential services.

Checklist

Review monthly expenses to identify areas impacted by inflation.
Assess energy usage and explore ways to reduce costs.
Stay updated on national and local policies regarding tariffs and trade.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While current data shows rising prices in various sectors, the situation is fluid and influenced by numerous factors. External events such as geopolitical tensions, global supply chain issues, and unpredictable climate patterns can substantially alter price trends. It is essential to remain cautious and not draw definitive conclusions based solely on current statistics, as the economic landscape can shift dramatically.

Bottom line

As President Trump approaches the second year of his administration, the reality of rising prices stands in contrast to the promises made during his campaign. While some factors contributing to inflation are outside his control, the administration's policies have also played a role. It remains critical for consumers to stay informed and adapt to the changing economic conditions.

FAQs

What are the main reasons for rising grocery prices in the US?

Rising grocery prices are attributed to factors such as tariffs on imported goods, supply chain disruptions, and changes in immigration policy affecting labour availability.

How have energy prices changed under Trump's presidency?

Energy prices have increased, contrary to Trump's promise to halve them, due to rising demand and supply chain issues, including tariffs and cuts to renewable energy subsidies.

What impact do tariffs have on consumer goods?

Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which can lead to higher prices for consumers in the domestic market, particularly in sectors like groceries and automobiles.