Will Modi's Party Triumph in the Key Indian State Election?

Voting has officially commenced in Bihar, India, where over 74 million eligible voters are participating in a critical election for 243 legislative assembly seats. This election is pivotal not only for Bihar but also serves as a precursor for upcoming state polls across India, especially with significant implications for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Last updated: 14 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The elections in Bihar are unfolding amid a backdrop of controversy, particularly concerning the revision of electoral rolls. The opposition parties have raised concerns that the changes may disenfranchise genuine voters, potentially benefitting the BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Despite these allegations, both the BJP and the Election Commission have contested these claims, asserting that the voter list revision was routine and justified.

The voting process is split into two phases, with the counting of votes scheduled for 14 November 2023. This election holds immense importance given Bihar's status as one of India's poorest and most populous states, where millions migrate for jobs, highlighting the need for effective governance and representation.

Key takeaways

Over 74 million people are eligible to vote for 243 assembly seats in Bihar.
The election is critical for the BJP, which has not formed a government in Bihar independently.
Controversial voter roll revisions have raised concerns about voter disenfranchisement.
Women voters are projected to play a significant role, with nearly half of the electorate being female.
This election may mark the last active participation of influential leaders Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav.

Timeline: how we got here

The political landscape in Bihar has been shaped by several key events leading up to this election:

September 2023: The Election Commission released a revised voter list, removing 4.7 million names.
October 2023: Voting commenced in Bihar, with anticipated voter turnout on the rise.
14 November 2023: Counting of votes will take place, determining the next state government.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The ongoing elections have begun, with significant voter turnout expected, especially among women. Reports suggest that local campaigns have intensified, focusing on issues that resonate with female voters.

What was already established

Prior to the elections, there were established concerns regarding the electoral roll revision process, which many believe could disadvantage certain voter demographics. The political alliances have remained consistent, with the BJP partnering with the Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), while the Congress party has aligned with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and smaller parties.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

While the immediate effects of the Bihar elections may not directly impact UK households, the outcomes could influence economic policies and migration patterns, particularly in sectors where Indian migrants form a significant workforce in the UK.

Businesses and jobs

For businesses, especially those with ties to India, the election results could signal changes in trade policies or investment climates based on the winning party's agenda. The potential for increased migration may also affect job markets in certain industries.

Policy and regulation

The results of the Bihar elections could inform national policies in India, including those that affect bilateral relations with the UK. Political stability in Bihar may lead to more coherent economic policies that can benefit international trade.

Numbers that matter

74.2 million: Total number of registered voters in Bihar as per the latest electoral roll.
4.7 million: Number of voters removed from the electoral roll during the recent revision.
243: Total assembly seats contested in this election.
14 November: Date scheduled for the counting of votes.
50%: Approximate percentage of women among the electorate, indicating rising female voter participation.

Definitions and jargon buster

**BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party)**: The current ruling party in India, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
**JD(U) (Janata Dal (United))**: A regional political party in Bihar, currently in alliance with the BJP.
**RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal)**: A prominent regional party in Bihar, traditionally representing social justice.
**Electoral rolls**: A list of registered voters eligible to vote in elections.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate aftermath of the elections, attention will shift to the counting of votes and the formation of the new government. Observers will monitor alliances and potential shifts in political power.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Following the elections, the elected government will set its legislative agenda, which could influence economic policies and social initiatives in Bihar and beyond.

Signals to watch

Voter turnout rates, particularly among women.
Coalition formations and shifts in political allegiances post-election.
Government announcements regarding economic policies and welfare schemes.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay updated on the election results and their implications for Bihar and India.
Engage with community discussions about the impact of these elections.
Monitor how the new government addresses women's issues and welfare schemes.

Don’t

Assume that the election outcomes will not affect international relations or economic policies.
Ignore the voices and concerns of underrepresented communities in Bihar.

Checklist

Review the electoral roll to ensure you’re registered if you're eligible.
Understand the key issues being debated during the election.
Engage with local leaders and candidates to stay informed about their platforms.
Participate in community forums discussing the election outcomes.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

There are significant uncertainties surrounding the elections due to allegations of voter disenfranchisement and the ongoing health concerns of key political leaders. The political landscape may shift dramatically depending on the results, and potential coalition dynamics could lead to unexpected alliances. It is essential to remain cautious about the implications of these elections for national politics.

Bottom line

The Bihar elections are a crucial event not only for the state but potentially for national politics in India. With significant stakes for the BJP and the opposition alliances, the outcomes may influence governance models and socio-economic policies. For stakeholders in the UK, staying informed about these developments is vital as they may have broader implications on UK-India relations.

FAQs

What is the significance of the Bihar elections?

The Bihar elections are significant as they are a precursor to other key state elections in India, impacting the political landscape and governance in one of India's most populous states.

How many voters are eligible to vote in Bihar?

Over 74 million voters are eligible to participate in the Bihar elections, making it a major electoral event in India.

What controversies surround the Bihar elections?

Controversies include allegations of voter disenfranchisement due to a recent revision of the electoral rolls, raising concerns about the fairness of the electoral process.