Will the Welsh Government's Budget Talks with Independent MS Shape Future Policies?

Recent discussions between independent Montgomeryshire Senedd member Russell George and the Welsh government regarding the approval of the government's £27 billion budget have raised significant concerns for residents in Powys. George is advocating for additional funding to allow patients from Powys to access hospital treatments in England more swiftly, amidst his ongoing legal issues related to alleged betting offences.

Last updated: 24 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The Welsh government is currently in negotiations to secure the passage of its budget for the coming financial year. With Labour holding 29 of the 60 seats in the Senedd, they require the support of at least two opposition members to approve the budget. Russell George's proposals for extra funding for healthcare in Powys and the Conservative push to eliminate a housing tax could play crucial roles in these negotiations.

Key takeaways

• Russell George is advocating for quicker access to hospital treatment for Powys patients in England.
• The Welsh government needs support from opposition members to pass its £27 billion budget.
• George is under legal scrutiny for alleged betting offences related to the 2024 general election.

Timeline: how we got here

Key dates leading to the current budget negotiations include:

• April 2023: Russell George suspended from the Conservative Senedd group amidst allegations of betting offences.
• January 2024: The Senedd will vote on the budget, with potential consequences for public services if not passed.
• September 2027: The earliest date for the trial regarding George's alleged betting offences.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Russell George's renewed push for additional healthcare funding for Powys patients has emerged as a prominent talking point in the budget discussions. His support for scrapping the housing tax also aligns with Conservative priorities.

What was already established

The Welsh government has stated its commitment to working with all parties in the Senedd to ensure the budget passes. Previous concerns about funding and service delivery in Powys have been noted, especially regarding the reliance on hospitals in England for treatment.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For residents of Powys, the discussions around healthcare funding could greatly affect access to timely medical treatment. With many patients travelling to England for services that are not available locally, any delays in budget approval could exacerbate existing healthcare challenges.

Businesses and jobs

Job losses could occur in the public sector if the budget is not passed, impacting local economies. Furthermore, businesses that rely on public sector contracts may also face instability, leading to wider economic repercussions across Powys and beyond.

Policy and regulation

Upcoming discussions on the budget will involve potential changes to taxation, including the Land Transaction Tax (LTT). The Welsh government has indicated a reluctance to scrap this tax entirely but is open to reviewing its thresholds, which could influence property transactions across Wales.

Numbers that matter

• £27 billion: The total budget proposed by the Welsh government for the next fiscal year.
• 40%: The proportion of Powys Teaching Health Board's budget spent on services outside its borders.
• £16 million: The estimated savings if Welsh NHS waiting times were applied to treatment costs.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Senedd: The Welsh Parliament, which governs Wales and is responsible for passing legislation.
• Land Transaction Tax (LTT): The Welsh equivalent of stamp duty, applied to property transactions.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the coming weeks, discussions between Russell George and Welsh ministers are crucial. The focus will likely be on healthcare funding and tax reforms as the January budget vote approaches.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Should the budget pass, it will set the financial landscape for public services in Wales for the upcoming year. Conversely, failure to approve the budget could lead to significant cuts and a reversion to previous spending plans.

Signals to watch

• Statements from the Welsh government regarding budget negotiations and potential compromises.
• Responses from opposition parties, particularly the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.
• Updates regarding the legal proceedings involving Russell George, which could impact his political future and influence negotiations.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about budget discussions and how they may impact local services.
• Engage with local representatives to express concerns about healthcare access and funding.

Don’t

• Ignore the implications of budget cuts on public services in your area.
• Assume that budget negotiations will not affect you personally.

Checklist

• Check local news updates on budget negotiations.
• Contact your local Senedd member to discuss your views on healthcare funding.
• Monitor any announcements regarding changes to the Land Transaction Tax.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

As discussions continue, there are uncertainties relating to the outcome of negotiations and the potential impact of George's legal situation. If the budget is not passed, the Welsh government will revert to 75% of the current spending plans, which could severely constrain public services.

Bottom line

The ongoing budget negotiations in the Welsh Senedd are critical for the future of public services in Wales, especially healthcare access for Powys residents. With significant financial implications at stake, the outcome will shape the political landscape and affect the lives of many. Stakeholders must remain alert as these discussions unfold.

FAQs

What is Russell George advocating for in the budget discussions?

Russell George is advocating for additional funding to allow Powys patients faster access to hospital treatment in England while also supporting calls to eliminate a housing tax.

What happens if the budget is not passed?

If the budget is not passed, the Welsh government will revert to 75% of the current spending plans, leading to potential job losses and cuts in public services.

What is the Land Transaction Tax?

The Land Transaction Tax (LTT) is the Welsh equivalent of stamp duty, applied to property transactions in Wales, which the Welsh government is considering reviewing.