Is China Gaining the Upper Hand in the Naval Race with Its New Aircraft Carrier?

The Fujian, China's most advanced aircraft carrier, has officially entered service following a grand commissioning ceremony led by President Xi Jinping. Equipped with cutting-edge electromagnetic catapults, the Fujian represents a significant advancement in China's naval capabilities, allowing for faster aircraft launches and greater operational reach compared to its predecessors. This development underscores China's rapid naval expansion, positioning it as a formidable force in global maritime power.

Last updated: 14 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The Fujian aircraft carrier has officially joined the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), marking a crucial milestone in China's military ambitions. This latest addition comes in the wake of growing tensions in the South China Sea and increasing competition with the United States. The commissioning ceremony, held on 11 October 2023, showcased the carrier's advanced capabilities, with Xi Jinping emphasising its role in enhancing China's maritime strength.

Key takeaways

The Fujian is China's third aircraft carrier, boasting advanced electromagnetic catapult technology.
It can launch various types of aircraft, enhancing its operational flexibility.
This carrier significantly improves China's ability to strike targets at greater distances.
The commissioning reflects China's rapid naval expansion under Xi Jinping's leadership.
The Fujian's launch puts pressure on the US and its allies to maintain naval parity.

Timeline: how we got here

China's journey to develop its aircraft carrier fleet began with the acquisition of the Liaoning in 2012, followed by the launch of the Shandong in 2019. The key milestones leading up to the Fujian's commissioning include:

2012: Liaoning, China's first aircraft carrier, enters service.
2019: Shandong, the second carrier, is commissioned.
2021: Construction of the Fujian officially completed.
2023: Fujian launched, featuring state-of-the-art technology.
11 October 2023: Fujian officially commissioned into service.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The Fujian has now entered service, making it operational as of 14 October 2023. Its electromagnetic catapult technology is a key differentiator, allowing for faster aircraft launches and the capability to carry heavier payloads. This positions the Fujian as a more formidable asset compared to China's earlier carriers.

What was already established

Prior to its commissioning, the Fujian was noted for its advanced design and construction, which included features inspired by modern naval engineering practices. The emphasis on electromagnetic catapults was a strategic decision, reportedly made by Xi Jinping, to enhance operational effectiveness and extend the range of China’s naval air power.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

While the direct impact on UK consumers may not be immediately apparent, the strategic implications of China's expanding naval capabilities could affect global shipping routes and international trade security. Increased naval activity in contested waters may lead to higher insurance costs for shipping, potentially impacting prices for goods.

Businesses and jobs

For UK businesses, particularly those involved in defence and maritime industries, China's advancements in naval technology could prompt increased competition. Firms may need to invest in innovation to maintain a competitive edge in a rapidly changing global defence landscape.

Policy and regulation

The UK government may need to reassess its defence and foreign policy strategies in light of China's growing naval power. This could involve increased funding for the Royal Navy and greater emphasis on international naval partnerships to ensure regional stability in the face of China's assertiveness.

Numbers that matter

3: The number of aircraft carriers currently in service with China (Fujian, Liaoning, Shandong).
1: The number of countries (the USA) with aircraft carriers employing similar electromagnetic catapult technology.
10: Estimated years of accelerated naval expansion under Xi Jinping's leadership since he took office in 2012.
40: The approximate number of ships in the PLA Navy that could potentially be launched from the Fujian.
800: The increased total combat range of aircraft launched from the Fujian compared to previous carriers.

Definitions and jargon buster

Electromagnetic Catapult: A launch system that uses electromagnetic energy to propel aircraft from the flight deck, allowing for faster launches compared to traditional steam catapults.
Aircraft Carrier: A warship that serves as a seagoing airbase, equipped to carry, deploy, and recover aircraft.
People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN): The naval force of the People's Liberation Army of China, responsible for naval warfare and operations.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Watch for the first operational missions of the Fujian, as these may provide insights into its capabilities and the strategic direction of the PLAN.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Monitor China's naval exercises and international maritime activities, particularly in contested areas such as the South China Sea, to assess how the Fujian is integrated into broader naval strategies.

Signals to watch

Official reports on the operational readiness of the Fujian and its deployments.
Responses from the US and its allies regarding naval capabilities and military exercises.
Changes in trade routes and shipping patterns in response to heightened naval activity.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about global naval developments, especially regarding China and the US.
Consider the implications of increased military presence on international business operations.
Engage with defence and security analysts to understand potential impacts on UK policy.

Don’t

Underestimate the significance of China's advancements in naval technology.
Ignore the potential for increased tensions in international waters.
Assume that current naval capabilities will remain static; adapt to changing geopolitical landscapes.

Checklist

Review your business's exposure to international maritime risks.
Assess the potential impacts of naval developments on global supply chains.
Stay updated on UK defence spending and policy changes.
Engage with experts to understand the implications of emerging technologies in defence.
Monitor international relations and alliances affecting naval power dynamics.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While the commissioning of the Fujian signifies a leap in China's naval capabilities, it is essential to consider the uncertainties surrounding its operational effectiveness and maintenance. Reports from state media may present an overly optimistic view, and the actual performance of the carrier in real-world scenarios remains to be tested. Additionally, geopolitical tensions could affect how and where the Fujian is deployed, introducing further complexities to its operational potential.

Bottom line

The Fujian's entry into service marks a pivotal moment in China's naval history, significantly enhancing its maritime capabilities and operational reach. This development will have implications not only for regional security but also for global naval dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China relations. As the UK navigates this evolving landscape, vigilance and strategic foresight will be crucial.

FAQs

What makes the Fujian different from earlier Chinese carriers?

The Fujian is equipped with electromagnetic catapults, allowing for faster aircraft launches and the ability to carry heavier payloads compared to earlier carriers like the Liaoning and Shandong.

How does the Fujian affect global naval power dynamics?

The commissioning of the Fujian enhances China's naval capabilities, creating pressure on the US and its allies to adapt their strategies in response to China's growing maritime influence.

What should the UK do in light of the Fujian's commissioning?

The UK should reassess its naval policies and defence strategy, considering increased investment in maritime capabilities and strengthening international alliances to address potential challenges posed by China's naval expansion.