Can Scotland Finally Break the All Blacks Curse?

The upcoming match between Scotland and New Zealand on 8 November 2023 at Murrayfield, Edinburgh, represents a significant moment in rugby history, especially for Scotland as they strive to break a 120-year winless streak against the All Blacks. With three changes to their lineup, including the notable absence of key players like Zander Fagerson, Scotland faces a formidable challenge to finally secure a victory over New Zealand.

Last updated: 02 November 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

In the lead-up to the match, New Zealand has made three changes to their side following a recent victory over Ireland. The All Blacks are looking to extend their dominance over Scotland, having not lost to them since a memorable draw in 1964. This history looms large, with fans and analysts questioning whether the current Scottish team can finally turn the tide. With several key players missing and a challenging lineup, the anticipation builds as Scotland prepares for what could be a defining moment in their rugby history.

Key takeaways

Scotland has not beaten New Zealand in 32 matches over 120 years.
The All Blacks' recent performance has shown vulnerabilities, but they remain a powerful force.
Scotland's absence of players like Zander Fagerson poses significant challenges in the scrum.
New Zealand's scoring patterns indicate the need for Scotland to start strong and maintain momentum.
Recent matches have seen Scotland narrow the scoring gap, sparking hope for a potential upset.

Timeline: how we got here

Understanding the journey to this pivotal match involves recognising key moments in the long-standing rivalry between Scotland and New Zealand:

January 1964: Scotland achieves a historic 0-0 draw against New Zealand at Murrayfield.
1972, 1975, 1981: New Zealand wins each encounter, reinforcing their dominance.
1983: A second draw occurs, but Scotland fails to secure victory in the crucial moments.
2000-2022: A series of 20 consecutive wins for New Zealand, with Scotland coming close in several recent matches.
8 November 2023: Scotland and New Zealand face off again at Murrayfield in the Autumn Nations Series.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Scotland's squad changes include the absence of Zander Fagerson, a player renowned for his endurance and strength in the scrummage. The team has made tactical substitutions, with Kyle Steyn stepping in for Duhan van der Merwe and Rory Darge starting on the bench. This reshuffle raises questions about Scotland’s ability to compete against New Zealand's formidable pack.

What was already established

The historical context of Scotland's struggles against New Zealand is well-documented. Despite some narrow defeats in recent years, the All Blacks have consistently shown resilience, often scoring heavily in the early stages of matches. The historical data indicates that Scotland's chances of victory rely heavily on starting strong and maintaining pressure throughout the game.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The excitement surrounding this match has implications for local businesses and the economy, particularly in Edinburgh. Pubs and restaurants are expected to see increased patronage as fans gather to watch the match and celebrate or commiserate. Additionally, the match presents an opportunity to boost national pride and community spirit.

Businesses and jobs

Local businesses are likely to benefit from the influx of fans, both local and international. The hospitality sector, in particular, may experience a surge in demand as fans prepare for the match. However, the outcome may also influence sponsorships and investments in Scottish rugby moving forward.

Policy and regulation

Scottish Rugby Union may face increased scrutiny regarding team selections and performance as expectations rise. The outcome of this match could influence future policy decisions related to player development and investment in grassroots rugby, especially if Scotland manages a historic win.

Numbers that matter

32: The number of matches Scotland has played against New Zealand without a win.
87: Tries scored by New Zealand in the first half over the last three years compared to 60 in the second half.
20: The average points scored by teams that have managed to beat New Zealand in recent years.
3: The number of key players missing from the Scottish lineup, including Zander Fagerson.
14: The number of unanswered points Scotland scored in their last match against New Zealand, showcasing their potential.

Definitions and jargon buster

All Blacks: New Zealand's national rugby union team, known for their dominance in international rugby.
Grand Slam: Achieving victory over all opponents in a tournament or series.
Scrum: A method of restarting play in rugby where players pack closely together with their heads down.
Tighthead prop: A front-row player in a scrum, known for their strength and technique.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Scotland must focus on immediate performance improvements in preparation for the match against New Zealand. This includes refining tactics, addressing weaknesses in the scrum, and fostering team cohesion.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Regardless of the outcome against New Zealand, Scotland should analyse their performance to inform future selections and strategies. Continued investment in player development will be crucial.

Signals to watch

Player performance metrics, especially in the scrum.
Fan engagement and attendance figures at local venues.
Media coverage and public sentiment regarding Scottish rugby's trajectory.

Practical guidance

Do

Support local businesses by watching the match at pubs or restaurants.
Engage with the match through social media to enhance community spirit.
Encourage discussions about player performance and potential team strategies.

Don’t

Underestimate the impact of historical context on current match outcomes.
Forget to back the team, regardless of past performances.
Ignore the importance of community support for Scottish rugby.

Checklist

Ensure your matchday plans are set, whether at home or out.
Familiarise yourself with the latest team news and player changes.
Stay updated on match statistics and historical performance trends.
Prepare to engage with other fans and celebrate the sport.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The unpredictability of sports outcomes is ever-present, especially in rugby, where injuries, weather conditions, and referee decisions can significantly influence the match. Scotland’s historical struggles against New Zealand create a psychological barrier that could affect player performance. Additionally, the absence of key players raises concerns about the team's ability to execute their game plan effectively.

Bottom line

The upcoming match between Scotland and New Zealand is not just another fixture; it represents a chance for Scotland to rewrite history and secure a long-awaited victory. With careful preparation and a strong performance, they have the opportunity to inspire a generation of rugby fans and potentially shift the narrative surrounding their rivalry with the All Blacks.

FAQs

What is the significance of the match for Scotland?

This match represents Scotland's opportunity to end a 120-year winless streak against New Zealand, making it a historic moment in their rugby history.

Who are the key players missing from the Scottish lineup?

Zander Fagerson is a notable absence, along with Huw Jones, which raises concerns about Scotland's performance in the scrum and backline.

How has Scotland performed against New Zealand in recent years?

Scotland has shown improvement, with closer margins in recent matches, but they have yet to secure a victory, with 20 consecutive losses since their last win.