Will Syria's Sharaa Make Waves in Talks with Trump After Sanctions Lift?

Syrian President Ahmed Sharaa's arrival in Washington marks a significant shift in US-Syrian relations, especially following the revocation of his status as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist. President Sharaa aims to discuss joint efforts in combating the remnants of the Islamic State group during his meeting with US President Donald Trump, amidst ongoing efforts to lift sanctions and reintegrate Syria into the international community.

Last updated: 05 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Ahmed Sharaa's visit to Washington comes at a crucial time for Syria, with the US recently adjusting its stance towards the new Syrian leadership. The collaboration to tackle the remaining threat posed by the Islamic State is expected to dominate discussions between Sharaa and Trump. This meeting represents a potential thawing in relations after years of isolation under the previous Assad regime, and highlights the changing dynamics in the Middle East as Syria seeks to re-establish its standing on the global stage.

Key takeaways

• Sharaa's visit signifies a potential shift in US-Syrian diplomatic relations.
• Joint efforts against the Islamic State group are a top priority in discussions.
• US sanctions on Syria are being gradually lifted, coinciding with Sharaa's leadership.

Timeline: how we got here

The relationship between the US and Syria has evolved significantly over the past few years. Key events include:

• 2011: The Syrian civil war begins, leading to international isolation for the Assad regime.
• 2016: The US lists Sharaa as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist due to his leadership role in Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), affiliated with al-Qaeda.
• 2023: In a move to re-engage, the US lifts sanctions on HTS and revokes Sharaa's terrorist designation, allowing him to visit Washington.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Sharaa's visit to the US has been framed as a significant step in restoring relations. The recent detainment of 71 suspected Islamic State members and the seizure of weapons in Syria underscores the ongoing security challenges that may be addressed during talks with Trump.

What was already established

Sharaa’s previous leadership roles in extremist groups and his efforts to distance himself from past affiliations have raised questions about his ability to lead a stable and inclusive government. His previous meetings with Trump and other global leaders have hinted at a shift in perception regarding his potential to govern effectively in post-war Syria.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

As the UK continues to monitor global terrorism threats, shifts in US foreign policy regarding Syria could impact the security landscape in the region. Changes in the Syrian government may affect migration patterns and humanitarian aid, which are of concern for UK citizens and policymakers.

Businesses and jobs

With the potential easing of sanctions, UK businesses may find new opportunities for investment and trade in Syria as the country stabilises. However, the situation remains fluid, and companies will need to navigate the complexities of operating in a recovering war-torn nation.

Policy and regulation

The UK government will need to assess its own policies regarding Syria in light of US actions. Any shifts in international sanctions or support could prompt a reevaluation of the UK's stance on assistance and engagement with the Syrian state.

Numbers that matter

• 71 suspected Islamic State members arrested in Syria, highlighting ongoing security issues.
• $10 million: The bounty previously placed on Sharaa by the US government.
• 13 years: The duration of the Syrian civil war, leading to significant humanitarian crises.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Specially Designated Global Terrorist: Individuals designated by the US government for their involvement in terrorism.
• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): A jihadist group in Syria that was affiliated with al-Qaeda until its leader severed ties in 2016.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, expect outcomes from Sharaa's meetings that may shape US policy towards Syria. Close monitoring of announcements regarding sanctions and cooperation against the Islamic State will be crucial.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As Syria seeks to reintegrate internationally, the effectiveness of Sharaa's government in establishing stability and governance will be key indicators of future US and UK engagement. The international community will assess whether Sharaa can fulfil his promises of moderation and inclusivity.

Signals to watch

• Statements from US officials following Sharaa’s visit.
• Reports on the effectiveness of Syrian security operations against extremist groups.
• Changes in the humanitarian situation in Syria and international responses.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about developments in US-Syrian relations as they may affect regional stability.
• Monitor changes in UK policy regarding humanitarian aid to Syria.

Don’t

• Don't assume immediate improvements in the security situation; it may take time for changes to manifest.
• Don't overlook the ongoing humanitarian needs of the Syrian population amidst political changes.

Checklist

• Review current UK foreign policy on Syria.
• Assess personal or business interests regarding potential investment in Syria.
• Keep updated on humanitarian initiatives related to Syria.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While Sharaa's leadership is being viewed positively by some international actors, there are significant risks involved. The potential for renewed violence remains high, given Syria's complex ethnic and sectarian dynamics. Additionally, the effectiveness of Sharaa's government in unifying various factions is uncertain, and the legacy of his past could complicate his efforts to garner broad support.

Bottom line

Ahmed Sharaa's visit to Washington signifies a pivotal moment in US-Syrian relations, reflecting a broader shift towards engagement with a new Syrian leadership. As the situation evolves, UK stakeholders must remain vigilant and adaptable to the changing geopolitical landscape in the region.

FAQs

What does Sharaa's visit mean for US-Syrian relations?

Sharaa's visit indicates a potential thaw in relations, with discussions on joint efforts against terrorism and the easing of sanctions likely to shape future engagement.

How has the US lifted sanctions on Syria?

The US has gradually eased sanctions in recognition of progress made by Sharaa's leadership, particularly in combating terrorist elements.

What challenges does Sharaa face as he leads Syria?

Sharaa must navigate complex sectarian dynamics and the ongoing threat of violence while striving to unify disparate factions within Syria.