Is Tanzania's Stability Crumbling Under Presidential Leadership?

Tanzania is currently experiencing significant turmoil following its recent elections, which have been marred by the worst post-election violence in decades. This crisis casts doubt on Tanzania's long-standing image as a stable and peaceful nation in Africa. President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who secured 98% of the vote, claims the election was fair, but she acknowledges the violent backlash and blames foreign interference for the protests. The death toll remains unclear as families continue to search for missing loved ones amidst the unrest.

Last updated: 17 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The aftermath of Tanzania's recent elections has seen widespread protests and civil unrest, shaking the nation to its core. Many citizens are expressing their dissatisfaction with the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party, which has faced accusations of stifling opposition and manipulating the electoral process. While President Samia continues to maintain that the election was free and fair, the violent repercussions suggest a deeply divided nation.

Key takeaways

• Tanzania's post-election violence marks a significant shift from its previously stable image.
• President Samia Suluhu Hassan's government faces increasing scrutiny both domestically and internationally.
• Younger generations are leading the protests, mirroring global movements against autocratic leadership.

Timeline: how we got here

The timeline of events leading to the current crisis includes several key milestones:

• March 2021: Samia Suluhu Hassan takes office following the death of John Magufuli.
• 2021-2023: Samia initially opens political space for opposition parties, fostering hope for reforms.
• August 2023: Opposition leaders are barred from contesting elections, heightening tensions.
• October 2023: Elections occur amid widespread violence and protests, resulting in a disputed outcome.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent reports indicate that the protests are intensifying, with new instances of violence and families continuing to report missing persons. International organisations have condemned the election processes, citing a lack of transparency and fairness.

What was already established

Prior to the elections, there was a growing dissatisfaction among the populace, particularly the youth, regarding the CCM's longstanding grip on power. The government's prior attempts to suppress dissent contributed to an explosive atmosphere leading up to election day.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For UK residents, the unrest in Tanzania could have implications for UK-Tanzania relations, potentially affecting trade and investment opportunities. The instability may also disrupt aid and development projects that involve UK stakeholders.

Businesses and jobs

Businesses operating in Tanzania may face challenges due to the unpredictable political climate. Companies may need to reassess their operational strategies in light of potential protests and civil unrest, impacting employment and investment decisions.

Policy and regulation

The UK government may need to monitor the developments in Tanzania closely, considering diplomatic responses to the human rights concerns raised by the recent violence and repression. Future engagements may hinge on the Tanzanian government's willingness to address these issues.

Numbers that matter

• 98%: Percentage of votes Samia received in the election, raising questions about the electoral process.
• Undetermined: The death toll from the violence following the election, with reports suggesting hundreds may have died.
• Decades: Length of time that tensions have been brewing under the CCM's rule leading up to the recent unrest.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM): The ruling political party in Tanzania since its formation in 1977, previously known as the Tanganyika African National Union.
• Gen Z: Refers to the generation born from the late 1990s to early 2010s, often characterised by their activism and use of social media.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the coming weeks, observers will be looking for signs of further unrest or potential government crackdowns on dissent. International responses may begin to take shape as reports of human rights violations emerge.

Medium term (1–6 months)

If the situation does not stabilise, Tanzania may face increased international isolation, impacting its economy. The government’s response to protests will be critical in determining the political landscape going forward.

Signals to watch

• Official government statements regarding the unrest and any proposed reforms.
• International reactions, particularly from the African Union and other regional bodies.
• Updates on the situation of opposition leaders and activists currently detained or missing.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about the evolving political situation in Tanzania.
• Monitor updates from reputable news sources and international organisations.

Don’t

• Assume stability will return without significant political reforms.
• Engage in activities that may be seen as politically provocative if travelling to Tanzania.

Checklist

• Review travel advisories if planning to visit Tanzania.
• Consider the implications of the political situation on business operations in the region.
• Engage with reputable NGOs for insights into the local context.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The situation in Tanzania is fluid, with many uncertainties regarding the future of governance and civil liberties. Analysts caution that while there may be calls for reform, the entrenched power structures may resist meaningful change. Additionally, the potential for further violence remains high, particularly if the government continues to suppress dissent.

Bottom line

Tanzania's recent post-election violence has shattered its reputation for stability, revealing deep societal fractures. As President Samia Suluhu Hassan navigates her second term, her ability to address public grievances and restore trust will be crucial for the country's future. The international community will be watching closely, as the implications of this unrest could reverberate well beyond Tanzania's borders.

FAQs

What was the cause of the post-election violence in Tanzania?

The post-election violence in Tanzania stems from widespread allegations of electoral fraud, repression of opposition, and a growing discontent among the populace, particularly youth, against the ruling party.

How did the international community react to the Tanzanian elections?

International organisations such as the African Union have expressed concern over the electoral process, citing issues such as ballot-stuffing and repression, which did not meet accepted democratic standards.

What does the future hold for Tanzania under Samia's leadership?

The future of Tanzania remains uncertain, heavily dependent on the government's response to the ongoing unrest and the willingness to engage in genuine political reforms amidst growing international scrutiny.