Can International Action Curb Weapons Supply to Sudan's Paramilitaries?

The recent comments by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlight the urgent call for international action to cut off weapons supplies to Sudan's paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This follows appalling reports of mass killings and systematic atrocities, including murder and sexual violence, against civilians in el-Fasher, exacerbating the already severe humanitarian crisis in Sudan.

Last updated: 06 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The conflict in Sudan has escalated dramatically since April 2023, when a power struggle between the leaders of the RSF and the Sudanese army erupted into civil war. Recent actions taken by Rubio, following a G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Canada, reflect the international community's growing concern over the RSF's brutal tactics, particularly in the western Darfur region. Rubio's description of the RSF's actions as "systematic atrocities" underlines the gravity of the situation, with reports indicating that women and children are primary targets.

Key takeaways

• Marco Rubio has called for international action against the RSF to halt weapons supplies.
• The RSF has reportedly committed mass killings and sexual violence against civilians in el-Fasher.
• Sudan's army accuses the UAE of providing support to the RSF, a claim the UAE denies.

Timeline: how we got here

The situation in Sudan has unfolded over several months, with key events including:

• April 2023: Civil war erupts between the RSF and Sudanese army following a power struggle.
• September 2023: The RSF captures el-Fasher after an 18-month siege, gaining control over all major cities in Darfur.
• October 2023: Marco Rubio's statements at the G7 meeting call for international intervention to stop the RSF's atrocities.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The recent statements by Secretary of State Rubio represent a significant escalation in the US's stance on the RSF, calling for immediate international action to prevent further atrocities. The emphasis on systematic violence against civilians, particularly targeting women and children, adds urgency to the situation.

What was already established

Prior to these developments, the RSF had already been implicated in numerous human rights violations throughout Sudan. The ongoing conflict has led to what the G7 describes as the world's largest humanitarian crisis, with millions affected by violence and displacement.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The situation in Sudan could indirectly impact UK consumers through increased humanitarian aid requirements and potential shifts in international relations. The UK's role in global humanitarian efforts may necessitate increased support for those fleeing violence.

Businesses and jobs

UK businesses with ties to Sudan may face operational challenges due to the instability and conflict, impacting supply chains and market access. Companies should monitor the situation closely to mitigate risks.

Policy and regulation

The UK government may respond to the situation through policy discussions in alignment with G7 partners, potentially leading to sanctions against countries supplying arms to the RSF. Upcoming consultations may focus on humanitarian aid and the UK's stance on international arms sales.

Numbers that matter

• Thousands of civilians have reportedly been killed since the conflict began in April 2023.
• El-Fasher, now under RSF control, has seen an estimated 18-month siege prior to its capture.
• Over 5 million people have been displaced within Sudan due to the ongoing violence, according to humanitarian reports.

Definitions and jargon buster

• RSF: Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group involved in the conflict in Sudan.
• G7: Group of Seven, an intergovernmental organisation consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US, focusing on economic governance.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, UK and international responses to the atrocities reported in Sudan will likely take shape through diplomatic channels and potential sanctions against suppliers of arms to the RSF.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Over the next few months, the situation may evolve with increased international pressure on the RSF and the Sudanese army. Humanitarian aid efforts will need to be scaled up to address the needs of displaced populations.

Signals to watch

• Changes in military support to the RSF from external nations.
• International diplomatic resolutions regarding arms embargoes or sanctions.
• Humanitarian aid statistics and reports from NGOs on civilian conditions in Sudan.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about the situation through reputable sources.
• Support humanitarian organisations providing aid to affected populations.

Don’t

• Don’t spread unverified information regarding the conflict.
• Don’t ignore the humanitarian needs arising from the crisis.

Checklist

• Verify sources of information related to Sudan's conflict.
• Engage with charities focused on humanitarian relief.
• Monitor government actions regarding international relations with Sudan.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The situation in Sudan remains fluid, with ongoing violence and humanitarian needs. There are uncertainties regarding the scale of atrocities committed and the effectiveness of international responses. The potential for misinformation is high, and it's crucial to rely on verified sources for updates.

Bottom line

The calls for international action against the RSF reflect a growing concern over human rights violations in Sudan. As the situation continues to develop, it is essential for the UK and other nations to remain vigilant and responsive to the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the region.

FAQs

What actions is the US taking regarding the RSF?

The US Secretary of State has called for international action to cut off weapons supplies to the RSF and is encouraging partner nations to join in this effort.

What are the allegations against the RSF?

The RSF is accused of committing systematic atrocities, including mass killings and sexual violence against civilians, particularly in el-Fasher.

How has the conflict affected civilians in Sudan?

The conflict has led to significant civilian casualties and displacement, with millions affected by violence and humanitarian crises.