Will the Indian State Election Be a Crucial Test for Modi?

The votes are currently being counted in Bihar, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) aims to secure another term in alliance with its partner, the Janata Dal (United). The recent elections, held in two phases on 6 and 11 November, saw a record voter turnout of 66.91%, the highest since 1951, according to India's Election Commission. Although exit polls suggest a favourable outcome for the BJP alliance, past inaccuracies in these polls warrant caution. The election's integrity has been questioned due to a contentious revision of electoral rolls, which critics argue could disadvantage genuine voters.

Last updated: 17 November 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The counting of votes began at 08:00 local time (02:30 GMT) on Friday, with trends anticipated to emerge by noon local time. However, the final tally may not be completed until later in the evening. The elections in Bihar are particularly significant as they serve as a precursor to upcoming elections in other key states such as West Bengal, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu, where the BJP has struggled to gain traction. Bihar holds more than 74 million voters and is known as one of India's poorest states, with many residents migrating out for employment opportunities.

Key takeaways

• The Bihar elections witnessed a record voter turnout of 66.91%.
• Exit polls predict a potential victory for the BJP alliance, though their accuracy is uncertain.
• The election followed a controversial revision of electoral rolls, raising concerns about voter exclusion.

Timeline: how we got here

The electoral process in Bihar has unfolded as follows:

• 6 November 2023: Phase one of the elections is held.
• 11 November 2023: Phase two of the elections takes place.
• 17 November 2023: Vote counting begins at 08:00 local time.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

As of the latest updates, the counting of votes is in progress, and trends are expected to be clearer by noon. Exit polls have suggested a potential victory for the BJP alliance, but the final results are still pending.

What was already established

The election process was marked by a record voter turnout and allegations regarding the integrity of the electoral rolls. The opposition has raised concerns about the exclusion of voters, particularly from minority communities, during the recent revision of the electoral list.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

While the elections in Bihar may not have a direct impact on UK consumers, the political stability in India can influence global markets, particularly in sectors such as trade and investment. Changes in government policies in India can affect UK businesses operating in or with India.

Businesses and jobs

The political outcome in Bihar could affect economic policies that impact investment and job creation. A BJP win could continue the current economic approach, while a shift in power might lead to changes that could resonate in the international business community.

Policy and regulation

Depending on the election results, there may be implications for UK-India relations, especially in areas of trade agreements and cooperation on economic policies. The stability of the Bihar government could serve as a barometer for future policies in other challenging states in India.

Numbers that matter

• 66.91%: Record voter turnout in Bihar.
• 74 million: Total registered voters in Bihar.
• 4.7 million: Names removed from the electoral rolls in a controversial revision.
• 71.6%: Female voter turnout, the highest in history.
• 2: Phases in which the elections were conducted.

Definitions and jargon buster

• BJP: Bharatiya Janata Party, a major political party in India.
• JD(U): Janata Dal (United), an alliance partner of the BJP in Bihar.
• RJD: Rashtriya Janata Dal, a regional party in Bihar and part of the opposition alliance.
• EC: Election Commission, the body responsible for administering elections in India.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

As votes are counted and results are declared, observers should monitor the political climate in Bihar, especially any immediate reactions from the parties involved and any potential calls for recounts or disputes over the results.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Post-election, the new government (if there is a change) will likely unveil its policies and priorities, which will be significant for economic conditions in Bihar and potentially influence broader Indian politics.

Signals to watch

• Official results of the Bihar elections.
• Public response to the election outcomes.
• Policy announcements from the new government.

Practical guidance

Do

• Keep informed about the election results and subsequent political developments.
• Consider how changes in Bihar's government might affect trade and investment opportunities.

Don’t

• Make assumptions about the results based solely on exit polls.
• Overlook the potential implications of Bihar's election on broader Indian politics.

Checklist

• Stay updated on the counting process and results.
• Monitor reactions from political leaders and parties.
• Assess how new policies may impact business operations in India.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The ongoing vote counting carries uncertainties, particularly concerning the accuracy of exit polls and the potential for disputes over the electoral process. Allegations regarding the exclusion of voters due to the recent revision of electoral rolls have raised questions about the integrity of the election. These factors could lead to political instability or challenges to the election results.

Bottom line

The Bihar elections are a critical juncture for both regional and national politics in India. As results are anticipated, the implications for governance, economic policies, and the future of political alliances will become clearer. Observers should remain vigilant regarding any fallout from the election outcomes and their potential impact on the overall political landscape in India.

FAQs

What was the voter turnout in the Bihar elections?

The voter turnout in the Bihar elections was a record 66.91%, the highest since the state's first elections in 1951.

What are the main political parties involved in the Bihar elections?

The main political parties involved in the Bihar elections are the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), and the opposition alliance led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress.

Why were the electoral rolls revised before the elections?

The electoral rolls were revised to update the list of eligible voters, but the process faced criticism from the opposition, which claimed it could disenfranchise genuine voters.