Can Wales or Japan Escape World Cup Disaster?

On Saturday, 15 November, Wales will face Japan at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff, marking a crucial match for both teams amidst their preparations for the upcoming World Cup. Wales seeks to end their 10-Test losing streak in Cardiff while Japan aims to improve their world ranking. Both head coaches, Steve Tandy and Eddie Jones, are under pressure to secure a win, making this Autumn Nations Series clash a must-watch.

Last updated: 15 November 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As the Autumn Nations Series unfolds, Wales faces Japan in a pivotal encounter that could shape the trajectory of both teams leading up to the 2027 Rugby World Cup. After a disappointing start under new head coach Steve Tandy, who began his tenure with a 52-28 loss to Argentina, Wales is desperate to secure a victory to build momentum and confidence. With their current world ranking at 12th, a loss could see them slip further behind, impacting their World Cup seeding. For Japan, ranked 13th, a win would elevate them past Wales, intensifying the competition for both sides.

Key takeaways

• Wales seeks to halt a 10-Test losing streak at home, highlighting the pressure on Steve Tandy.
• Japan can leapfrog Wales in world rankings with a victory.
• The match is critical for both teams' preparations ahead of the 2027 Rugby World Cup.

Timeline: how we got here

Wales' journey to this match has been tumultuous, particularly following their summer tour to Japan, where they ended an 18-match losing streak. Key dates include:

• 15 November 2023: Wales vs. Japan, Principality Stadium, Cardiff.
• 3 December 2023: World Cup draw for 2027, with a new format set to impact team placements.
• August 2023: Wales' summer tour to Japan, where they secured a win after a prolonged losing streak.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Wales will field a team featuring several new faces, including Ben Thomas, who is expected to play a crucial role in the midfield alongside Max Llewellyn. The team will need to adapt quickly as they deal with the absence of key players due to injury and availability issues, with 12 squad members set to miss the autumn finale against South Africa.

What was already established

Wales' recent history has been marred by losses, culminating in a significant defeat against Argentina, which raised concerns about their current form. The team has struggled to maintain a consistent performance level, leading to questions about Tandy's strategy and player selection as they prepare for Japan.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The outcome of this match has implications beyond the pitch, as it affects the national mood and pride in Welsh rugby. A win could boost local support and interest in the sport, encouraging attendance at future matches and enhancing community engagement.

Businesses and jobs

Local businesses around the Principality Stadium, including bars and restaurants, stand to benefit from increased foot traffic if Wales secures a victory. Additionally, a successful campaign could lead to increased investment in rugby at the grassroots level, fostering new talent and job opportunities within the sport.

Policy and regulation

With the World Cup draw approaching, the Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) will need to consider the implications of their performance in this match on future funding and support from sponsors. The team's ranking could influence negotiations for partnerships and investment in Welsh rugby.

Numbers that matter

• 10: The number of tests Wales has lost consecutively at home.
• 12: Current world ranking of Wales, which could drop if they lose to Japan.
• 13: Japan's current world ranking, which they could improve with a win.
• 24: The number of teams set to compete in the 2027 Rugby World Cup, with a new format that includes six groups of four.

Definitions and jargon buster

• World Cup: An international rugby tournament held every four years.
• Autumn Nations Series: An annual rugby union competition featuring northern and southern hemisphere teams.
• TMO: Television Match Official, a referee's assistant who reviews decisions using video footage.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Wales must focus on refining their game plan and building team cohesion ahead of the match against Japan. This includes addressing defensive weaknesses and improving communication on the field.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the 2027 Rugby World Cup draw approaches, Wales will need to maintain a competitive edge in upcoming matches. Building a robust squad depth will be crucial as they face other top-tier teams like New Zealand and South Africa.

Signals to watch

• World rankings updates post-match against Japan.
• Injury reports and player availability leading up to the South Africa match.
• Performance metrics from the Japan match, particularly in attack and defence.

Practical guidance

Do

• Support the team by attending matches and engaging with local rugby initiatives.
• Stay updated on player performances and team news as the World Cup approaches.

Don’t

• Dismiss the importance of this match in the context of the World Cup preparation.
• Overlook the impact of player morale and team dynamics on performance.

Checklist

• Check the match schedule and plan to watch or attend the game.
• Follow updates on player fitness and team selections.
• Engage with community events related to Welsh rugby.
• Monitor the WRU's announcements regarding future fixtures and strategies.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

There are several uncertainties surrounding this match, including player fitness and the potential for last-minute changes in the line-up. Additionally, performance inconsistencies could lead to unpredictable outcomes. The impact of external factors, such as weather conditions and crowd support, may also play a significant role in the match's outcome.

Bottom line

This match against Japan is a critical juncture for Wales, providing an opportunity to break their losing streak and build confidence ahead of the World Cup. A victory will not only improve their world ranking but also set a positive tone for the remainder of the autumn series and beyond.

FAQs

What time is the Wales vs Japan match?

The Wales vs Japan match kicks off at 17:40 GMT on Saturday, 15 November.

Where can I watch the match live?

The match will be available on BBC Sounds, BBC Radio Wales, BBC Radio Cymru, and live text updates on BBC Sport online.

Why is this match important for Wales?

This match is vital for Wales as it provides an opportunity to end their home losing streak and improve their world ranking ahead of the 2027 Rugby World Cup.