How Will New Powers for Pakistan's Army Chief Impact the Nation?

The recent vote by Pakistan's parliament to grant army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir enhanced powers and lifetime immunity marks a significant shift in the balance of power within the country. This 27th constitutional amendment raises concerns about escalating military influence and the erosion of judicial independence, which critics argue could lead to a more autocratic governance structure. The amendment also introduces structural changes to the judiciary, fuelling fears of a further tilt towards military dominance.

Last updated: 27 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The Pakistani parliament's passage of the 27th constitutional amendment signals a pivotal moment in the nation's political landscape. The amendment bestows lifetime immunity from arrest and prosecution to Field Marshal Asim Munir, enhancing his authority not just over the army but also extending oversight to the navy and air force. Critics assert that this consolidation of power threatens democratic norms and reflects a shift towards autocracy. Furthermore, the amendment redefines the role of the judiciary, creating a Federal Constitutional Court (FCC) that will be appointed by the president, raising alarms about judicial independence in an already compromised legal environment.

Key takeaways

• The 27th amendment grants army chief lifetime immunity and new powers, intensifying military influence.
• A Federal Constitutional Court will be established, with judges appointed by the president, compromising judicial independence.
• Critics warn that the amendment signals a shift towards autocracy, undermining civil and judicial rights.

Timeline: how we got here

Understanding the context leading to this amendment requires examining key historical events and legislative changes:

• November 2022: Field Marshal Asim Munir appointed as army chief.
• October 2023: The parliament votes to pass the 27th constitutional amendment.
• October 2023: Resignations from two Supreme Court justices occur on the day the amendment is signed into law.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The most significant development is the introduction of the 27th amendment, which not only grants lifetime immunity to Munir but also restructures the judiciary by creating the FCC. Critics have highlighted that the amendment alters the fundamental checks and balances intended to safeguard judicial independence.

What was already established

Pakistan has a history of military influence in politics, oscillating between civilian rule and military control. Previous military leaders have often established autocratic governance, and the current amendment is viewed as a continuation of this trend, suggesting a deeper entrenchment of military power.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For UK-based Pakistanis and their families, the political instability may affect remittances and investments in Pakistan. A government leaning towards autocracy may lead to economic uncertainty, impacting the livelihood of those reliant on financial support from abroad.

Businesses and jobs

UK businesses operating in Pakistan may face increased risks due to potential instability. A stronger military presence in governance could lead to an unpredictable business environment, affecting investment decisions and operational strategies.

Policy and regulation

The UK government might need to reassess its diplomatic and trade relations with Pakistan. A shift towards authoritarianism could prompt calls for human rights considerations in international dealings, impacting policy discussions and trade agreements.

Numbers that matter

• 1: The number of lifetime positions Field Marshal Asim Munir will hold, overseeing all military branches.
• 2: The number of Supreme Court justices who resigned immediately after the amendment.
• 27: The number of constitutional amendments that have shaped Pakistan's governance structure.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Field Marshal: A high-ranking military officer, often commanding multiple branches of the armed forces.
• Post-hybrid system: A term used to describe a governance model where military power is more pronounced than civilian authority.
• Federal Constitutional Court (FCC): A proposed court that will handle constitutional matters, with judges appointed by the president.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, observers should monitor the reactions from civil society and the judiciary, particularly regarding the operationalisation of the FCC and its impact on ongoing legal cases.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Over the next few months, the effects of the amendment on Pakistan's political landscape will likely become clearer. Watch for shifts in public sentiment regarding military influence and potential protests advocating for judicial independence.

Signals to watch

• Resignations or appointments within the judiciary.
• Public protests or civil society actions against the military's increased power.
• Changes in international diplomatic relations with Pakistan.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about developments in Pakistan's political landscape.
• Engage with community discussions regarding the implications of these changes.
• Support organisations advocating for human rights and judicial independence.

Don’t

• Ignore the potential implications of increased military power on civil liberties.
• Assume stability without considering the historical context of military influence in Pakistan.
• Take for granted the importance of a balanced civil-military relationship.

Checklist

• Review news sources for updates on political changes in Pakistan.
• Understand the implications of military power on your personal or business interests in Pakistan.
• Stay engaged with organisations focused on monitoring human rights in Pakistan.
• Consider the potential for changes in UK-Pakistan relations and how that may affect you.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

There are significant uncertainties surrounding the long-term impact of the 27th amendment. The potential for increased authoritarianism raises concerns about civil rights, judicial independence, and social stability. The situation could evolve rapidly, and various stakeholders may react unpredictably to these changes, challenging the current power dynamics.

Bottom line

The 27th amendment in Pakistan marks a critical juncture that may deepen military influence over governance and diminish judicial independence. As the political landscape evolves, the implications for both domestic and international stakeholders will need careful scrutiny to understand the broader consequences for democracy and civil liberties in Pakistan.

FAQs

What does the 27th constitutional amendment entail?

The 27th constitutional amendment grants army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir lifetime immunity and expands his authority over the navy and air force, while also restructuring the judiciary.

How does this amendment affect the judiciary in Pakistan?

The amendment creates a Federal Constitutional Court (FCC) appointed by the president, raising concerns about judicial independence and the balance of power between the judiciary and the executive.

What are the implications of increased military power in Pakistan?

Increased military power may lead to autocratic governance, undermining civil rights and judicial independence, and could destabilise the social fabric of the country.