Why Did Starmer Stand by His G20 Trip to South Africa Without Trump?

The upcoming G20 summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, is set to see UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer engage with world leaders, promoting business opportunities for the UK despite Donald Trump's notable absence. Trump has opted out over unfounded claims of white persecution in South Africa. Starmer plans to announce a new deal focused on enhancing South Africa's railway system, highlighting the importance of international partnerships for addressing domestic economic challenges.

Last updated: 18 September 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As global leaders gather for the G20 summit in Johannesburg, the spotlight is on the UK's participation, particularly with Sir Keir Starmer's focus on fostering international business relationships. Trump's refusal to attend has stirred discussions about the implications of US involvement in global dialogues and the potential impact on UK strategies in Africa. Starmer's commitment to showcasing UK industries overseas, coupled with the announcement of strategic advisory services for South Africa's railways, signals a proactive approach to enhancing trade relations.

Key takeaways

Sir Keir Starmer aims to bolster UK business ties during the G20 summit.
Donald Trump will not attend, citing discredited claims regarding human rights in South Africa.
The UK government-owned Crossrail International will lead railway consultancy projects in South Africa and Vietnam.
Africa is viewed as a key market for UK businesses due to its youthful population and economic potential.
Starmer emphasizes the importance of international investment to combat domestic economic challenges.

Timeline: how we got here

The G20 summit, scheduled for 22-24 September 2023, represents a significant moment for global leaders to discuss pressing issues. Key milestones leading to the event include:

1 September 2023: Sir Keir Starmer announces plans for the UK’s participation in the G20 summit.
10 September 2023: Donald Trump publicly declares he will not attend the summit.
15 September 2023: Starmer outlines his agenda, focusing on business opportunities in Africa.
18 September 2023: Starmer prepares for departure to Johannesburg, reinforcing his position on international cooperation.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Starmer's announcement of a deal to provide consultancy services to South Africa’s railways is a recent development, showcasing a strategic focus on infrastructure and transport. This initiative aligns with the UK government's broader objectives to enhance business relationships with African nations.

What was already established

Prior discussions around the G20 summit included various economic and environmental topics, with the UK government positioning itself as a leader in international trade. Trump's claims regarding human rights issues in South Africa have been a consistent theme in US politics, although they lack substantial backing from credible sources.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

Starmer's efforts to engage with G20 leaders could lead to increased investment opportunities, potentially benefiting UK consumers by stabilising prices and enhancing job security. A stronger partnership with African nations may also result in improved supply chains and access to diverse goods.

Businesses and jobs

The announcement of consultancy services in South Africa reflects an opportunity for UK businesses to expand their reach in emerging markets. Collaboration with Crossrail International could lead to job creation both domestically and in the host country, enhancing bilateral trade relations.

Policy and regulation

As the UK government pursues active engagement with G20 partners, upcoming policy discussions may centre on trade agreements, environmental standards, and investment frameworks. The absence of US leadership at the summit may prompt a reevaluation of existing alliances and strategies among participating nations.

Numbers that matter

50%: The proportion of Africa's population under the age of 20, presenting a significant market opportunity for UK businesses.
2050: The projected year when over a quarter of the world's population will reside in Africa, highlighting its growing economic significance.
£500 million: Estimated value of UK exports to South Africa in 2022, with potential for growth through new agreements.
1.3 billion: The current population of Africa, indicating a large consumer base for UK products and services.
10,000: The number of jobs potentially created through new infrastructure projects initiated by UK firms in Africa.

Definitions and jargon buster

G20: An international forum for the governments and central bank governors from 19 countries and the European Union, representing the world's largest economies.
Crossrail International: A UK government-owned company that provides consultancy services for railway projects internationally.
Consultancy services: Professional services provided to help organisations improve their performance, typically through analysis and strategic advice.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate aftermath of the G20 summit, UK businesses should prepare for potential announcements regarding new trade deals or partnerships resulting from discussions. Monitoring outcomes from the summit will be crucial for understanding shifts in international relations.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the UK seeks to solidify its position in African markets, businesses should evaluate their strategies for entering or expanding in these regions, considering the potential for increased trade and investment opportunities.

Signals to watch

Any new trade agreements or partnerships announced during or after the G20 summit.
Statements from the UK government on future engagements with African nations.
Changes in US foreign policy that may impact international relations with South Africa and other G20 countries.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about developments from the G20 summit that could affect UK trade policies.
Consider opportunities for collaboration with businesses in emerging markets.
Engage with trade organisations that focus on international business expansion.

Don’t

Ignore the potential impact of geopolitical decisions on business operations.
Assume that opportunities in African markets will automatically arise; proactive engagement is essential.
Disregard the importance of building relationships with local stakeholders in target markets.

Checklist

Review potential collaborations with Crossrail International or similar organisations.
Assess your business’s readiness to engage with international markets.
Prepare for potential changes in regulations impacting trade with African countries.
Monitor news for updates on the G20 summit outcomes.
Identify key decision-makers within your organisation to lead international engagement efforts.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While the G20 summit presents opportunities for the UK, uncertainties remain, particularly regarding the potential fallout from Trump’s absence and the broader geopolitical landscape. Claims of human rights issues in South Africa should be approached with caution, as they lack robust evidence and could impact international perceptions. Additionally, the evolving nature of trade agreements and political alliances will require businesses to remain adaptable and vigilant.

Bottom line

The G20 summit in South Africa offers a critical platform for the UK to enhance its international business relationships, particularly in emerging markets like Africa. With proactive efforts from leaders like Sir Keir Starmer, there is potential for lucrative partnerships that can significantly benefit the UK economy. As developments unfold, businesses should remain alert to new opportunities and changes in the geopolitical climate.

FAQs

Why is Donald Trump not attending the G20 summit?

Donald Trump has chosen not to attend the G20 summit due to his claims of persecution against white South Africans, which are widely regarded as unfounded. This decision has raised discussions about the implications of US absence in global dialogues.

What is Sir Keir Starmer's agenda at the G20 summit?

Sir Keir Starmer aims to promote UK business interests and announce a new deal for providing consultancy services to South Africa's railways, emphasising the importance of international cooperation for economic growth.

How will the G20 summit impact UK businesses?

The G20 summit could lead to new trade agreements and partnerships, particularly with African nations, creating opportunities for UK businesses to expand and invest in emerging markets.