Could a Doctor Strike During Flu Season Really Happen? Starmer Thinks It's Unthinkable!

Sir Keir Starmer has urged resident doctors to reconsider planned strikes, labelling them "reckless" amidst a significant flu outbreak affecting the UK. With the NHS facing overwhelming pressure, Starmer argues that going ahead with the strikes would endanger patients and the healthcare system. The British Medical Association (BMA) is currently polling its members on whether to proceed with the industrial action slated for 17 December, which could escalate tensions between healthcare professionals and the government over pay and working conditions.

Last updated: 16 December 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The current situation regarding the potential strike by resident doctors is tense, with Sir Keir Starmer and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak both expressing grave concerns. The NHS is reportedly experiencing its "most precarious moment" since the pandemic due to rising flu cases, which have surged by 55% in just one week. Starmer's comments reflect a growing anxiety that the ongoing industrial action could exacerbate the strain on healthcare services already challenged by the flu outbreak.

Key takeaways

• Sir Keir Starmer has called the planned strikes "reckless" during a severe flu outbreak.
• The NHS is facing unprecedented pressure with hospital admissions for flu reaching record levels.
• The BMA is polling members to gauge support for calling off the strikes in response to a new government offer.

Timeline: how we got here

Here's a brief timeline of events leading to the current situation:

• 1 December 2023: Flu cases begin to rise significantly across the UK.
• 10 December 2023: Reports emerge of record flu hospitalisations, with 2,660 patients daily in England.
• 15 December 2023: Sir Keir Starmer publicly urges resident doctors to cancel strikes.
• 17 December 2023: A five-day strike by resident doctors is set to begin if BMA members vote against calling it off.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The BMA is polling its members to determine whether to proceed with the strike scheduled for 17 December. The results of this poll will be released on Monday, 18 December, potentially influencing the future of the planned industrial action.

What was already established

Prior to this week, the NHS had been reporting increasing flu cases, with health officials indicating that children and young people were particularly affected. The government has made an offer aimed at addressing pay and working conditions for doctors, which the BMA is currently reviewing.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For UK households, the potential strikes could lead to disruptions in healthcare services, particularly for vulnerable populations needing immediate care during the flu outbreak. With hospitals already overburdened, the strikes could complicate access to essential services and increase waiting times for treatments.

Businesses and jobs

The healthcare sector, which employs hundreds of thousands across the UK, faces risks as the strikes may trigger a broader impact on staffing and operational efficiency. The potential loss of resident doctors during a critical period could also hinder the training and development of new healthcare professionals.

Policy and regulation

The government is under pressure to negotiate with the BMA to prevent the strikes. With rising flu cases and the potential for disruptions, the administration may need to reassess its approach to healthcare funding and support for medical staff to avert further industrial action.

Numbers that matter

• 2,660: Average daily hospital admissions for flu in England last week, marking a record for this time of year.
• 55%: Increase in flu cases compared to the previous week.
• 5: Days of potential strikes planned by resident doctors starting 17 December.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Resident doctors: Also known as junior doctors, these are medical practitioners in training who have completed basic medical education and are receiving practical training.
• BMA: British Medical Association, a trade union that represents doctors in the UK.
• NHS: National Health Service, the publicly funded healthcare system in the UK.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, the BMA's polling results on whether to proceed with the planned strikes will be vital. If the strikes go ahead, the NHS may face immediate staffing challenges and increased pressure from flu cases.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Over the next few months, the government could face increased scrutiny regarding its healthcare policies and the handling of medical staff conditions. This may lead to further negotiations and potential reforms aimed at improving working conditions for doctors.

Signals to watch

• Polling results from the BMA on 18 December.
• Government responses to BMA feedback and any new offers made to the medical community.
• Flu case trends and hospitalisation rates over the winter months.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about the BMA's decision regarding the strikes.
• Monitor flu trends and NHS capacity updates from official sources.
• Consider your healthcare needs and plan ahead if strikes proceed.

Don’t

• Don’t ignore signs of flu symptoms; seek medical advice promptly.
• Don’t assume that healthcare services will remain unaffected during the strike.
• Don’t dismiss the importance of advocating for improved working conditions for healthcare staff.

Checklist

• Review your current health situation and prepare for potential delays in care.
• Stay updated on local NHS communications regarding strike impacts.
• Have a plan for accessing healthcare services if needed during the strike period.
• Support healthcare professionals by understanding their challenges and advocating for fair treatment.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

Given the evolving nature of the situation, there are uncertainties regarding the BMA's final decision on the strikes and the government's response. The flu outbreak's severity and its potential impact on NHS services also carry risks that may change rapidly. Stakeholders should remain vigilant as circumstances develop, and the healthcare landscape shifts.

Bottom line

The current tensions between resident doctors and the government highlight the critical intersection of healthcare provision and workforce conditions. As the NHS faces unprecedented challenges due to rising flu cases, the outcome of the BMA's polling could drastically influence healthcare access for UK residents. This situation underscores the need for ongoing dialogue and effective solutions within the NHS framework.

FAQs

Why are resident doctors planning to strike?

The planned strikes by resident doctors are primarily due to ongoing disputes over pay and working conditions, exacerbated by rising flu cases putting additional pressure on the NHS.

What is the role of the BMA in this situation?

The British Medical Association (BMA) represents doctors in the UK and is conducting a poll to determine whether its members support proceeding with strikes or accepting the government's new offer.

How might the strikes affect NHS services during the flu outbreak?

If the strikes proceed, they could significantly disrupt NHS services, particularly during a time when flu cases are already overwhelming healthcare facilities.