Is the MAGA Movement Splitting and What Does It Mean for Trump?

The political landscape in the United States is shifting as speculation grows over who will succeed Donald Trump as the leader of the Republican Party. Despite being limited to two terms by the Constitution, Trump has hinted at the potential successors within his cabinet. With the 2028 election looming, the dynamics of Trump's Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement are under scrutiny, revealing fractures that could impact the party's future.

Last updated: 29 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

In recent weeks, there has been a palpable sense of unease within Trump's inner circle as the next Republican presidential nomination approaches. During a cabinet meeting, Trump suggested that the next candidate might already be sitting at the table, indirectly indicating potential rivalries among his closest advisers. This speculation comes amid reports of declining support for Trump among key voter demographics, including minority and working-class groups who were instrumental in his previous electoral victories.

Key takeaways

Trump has hinted at possible successors within his cabinet, despite being term-limited.
Recent local elections indicate a decline in support for Republicans among minority and working-class voters.
Fractures within the MAGA movement could significantly affect the party's future direction and unity.

Timeline: how we got here

The landscape of the Republican Party has evolved significantly in recent years. Key milestones include:

2016: Trump wins the Republican nomination amidst a crowded field.
2020: Trump loses the presidential election to Joe Biden but continues to command a strong base.
2021-2022: The Republican Party faces internal strife, with factions emerging over various policies and candidates.
October 2023: Trump's cabinet meeting reveals potential successors and hints at fractures in the MAGA movement.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent discussions among Trump's advisers indicate a growing concern regarding the future of the MAGA movement and the potential for new leadership to emerge. As Trump contemplates his legacy, speculation about his successors intensifies, particularly regarding figures like Vice-President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

What was already established

Trump's influence on the Republican Party has been profound, reshaping its core principles around economic nationalism, secure borders, and America-first policies. The party has seen an influx of new voters, but with them comes a challenge to maintain a cohesive coalition.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

While the dynamics within the U.S. political landscape may seem distant, the impact of American politics on global markets, including the UK, cannot be underestimated. Changes in U.S. policy, especially regarding trade and international relations, can directly affect UK consumers and businesses.

Businesses and jobs

As the Republican Party navigates its internal fractures, UK businesses that rely on trade with the U.S. must remain vigilant. Economic policies from the next U.S. administration could reshape trade agreements and affect job markets on both sides of the Atlantic.

Policy and regulation

UK policymakers will closely monitor the U.S. elections and their aftermath, as shifts in the Republican Party could lead to changes in bilateral relations. Future trade deals, foreign policy, and regulatory alignment will depend significantly on the outcome of the 2028 elections.

Numbers that matter

-14: Trump's current net approval rating, down from +6 in January 2023.
65%: Percentage of Republican voters identified as "core Republicans" in the Manhattan Institute survey.
29%: Percentage of "new entrant Republicans" who are younger and more diverse, indicating a shift in the party's base.
70%: Core Republicans who have a positive view of Marco Rubio.
80%: Core Republicans who have a positive view of JD Vance.

Definitions and jargon buster

MAGA: Make America Great Again, a political slogan popularised by Donald Trump during his presidential campaigns.
Core Republicans: Voters who have consistently supported Republican presidential nominees since 2016.
New entrant Republicans: A demographic within the party that includes younger, more diverse voters with views that may differ from traditional conservatism.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

The immediate focus for Republicans will be the upcoming mid-term elections, where they will seek to solidify their base and address concerns about declining support among key voter groups.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As potential candidates for the 2028 nomination emerge, the party will need to navigate internal tensions while attempting to maintain a united front to appeal to a diverse electorate.

Signals to watch

Polling data on voter support for potential Republican candidates.
Trends in voter demographics and their attitudes towards party policies.
Key endorsements from influential party figures and grassroots leaders.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about the evolving political landscape and candidate positioning.
Engage with local Republican party events to understand grassroots sentiments.
Monitor shifts in voter demographics and preferences that may influence future elections.

Don’t

Assume that traditional party loyalties will remain unchanged.
Neglect the importance of addressing the concerns of new entrant Republicans.
Overlook the influence of social media and online discourse on voter sentiment.

Checklist

Review polling data regularly to gauge voter sentiment.
Attend community meetings to understand local Republican dynamics.
Engage with diverse voter groups to bridge gaps within the party.
Stay updated on policy discussions that may affect the party's platform.
Evaluate potential candidates' positions on key issues relevant to voters.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

As the Republican Party grapples with internal divisions, there are significant risks associated with maintaining a cohesive coalition. The emergence of new political voices may challenge established norms and create friction among traditional party members. Moreover, the potential for voter disillusionment could lead to electoral setbacks, particularly if the party fails to address the concerns of its diverse base.

Bottom line

The future of the Republican Party hinges on its ability to navigate the complexities of a rapidly changing political landscape. As Trump's influence continues to shape the party, the emergence of new leadership will require a careful balance between tradition and innovation to maintain voter support. The 2028 election will serve as a critical juncture for defining the party's direction.

FAQs

Who are the potential successors to Trump within the Republican Party?

Potential successors include Vice-President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, both of whom are seen as likely heirs to Trump's political legacy.

How has the Republican Party's voter base changed recently?

The Republican Party has seen an influx of "new entrant Republicans," who are younger, more diverse, and hold views that may diverge from traditional conservatism.

What challenges does the MAGA movement face going forward?

The MAGA movement faces challenges related to internal fractures, declining support among key voter demographics, and the need to unify various factions within the party.