Will Christmas Hospital Admissions Drop as Flu Rates Decline?

Flu cases are continuing to rise in Wales, but the rate of increase is starting to slow down, according to the latest figures from Public Health Wales (PHW). This article will explore the current flu situation in Wales, the impact on the NHS, and what residents should know about vaccinations and health precautions during this season.

Last updated: 13 December 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As of the second week of December 2023, flu activity in Wales is classified as "medium intensity," with a noticeable rise in consultations to general practitioners (GPs). Despite this increase, predictions suggest that hospital admissions related to flu will be lower than the same period last year. Welsh authorities are cautiously monitoring the situation as people gather for the Christmas holidays, which may lead to increased flu transmission.

Key takeaways

Flu cases are currently at medium intensity in Wales.
Hospital admissions for flu are forecasted to decrease compared to last year.
Vaccination uptake among vulnerable groups remains low, with only about a third vaccinated.
Healthcare officials urge eligible individuals to get vaccinated before Christmas.
Early evidence suggests this season's flu strain is not significantly more dangerous than in previous years.

Timeline: how we got here

The flu season typically peaks during the winter months. Here’s a brief timeline of the current season's key events leading up to December 2023:

September 2023: Flu vaccination campaign begins, targeting vulnerable groups.
November 2023: Reports emerge of rising flu cases and increased GP consultations.
Early December 2023: PHW classifies flu activity at medium intensity; hospital admissions begin to rise.
Second week of December 2023: Current assessments indicate a potential slowing in the rate of flu case increases.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent data shows a rise in the percentage of flu-positive tests among hospital patients, now at 18.7%, the highest level recorded this winter. Additionally, while the number of patients admitted to hospitals has decreased slightly to 152, the overall number of patients in hospital with confirmed flu has risen, indicating ongoing challenges for the healthcare system.

What was already established

Prior assessments indicated that flu was circulating at levels consistent with a typical winter season. Public health officials have been monitoring flu trends and have expressed concerns about the possibility of rising cases during the holiday season, particularly as people gather for Christmas.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The rise in flu cases could affect consumers directly, especially during the holiday season. Families may need to consider health precautions to avoid illness, particularly among vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. The NHS recommends that individuals eligible for the flu vaccine take advantage of the offer to mitigate risks.

Businesses and jobs

For businesses, particularly those in the healthcare sector, the increase in flu cases may affect workforce availability. Hospitals are under pressure, but officials express confidence in their ability to manage the situation through proper planning and resource allocation. This could mean temporary adjustments to operations as staff manage flu-related absences.

Policy and regulation

The Welsh government is actively encouraging vaccination as a key public health measure. With only a third of at-risk groups vaccinated, public health campaigns may intensify to ensure higher uptake ahead of peak flu season. Monitoring will continue to assess the impact of policies aimed at controlling flu spread.

Numbers that matter

278: Patients in hospital with confirmed flu, up from 254 the previous week.
18.7%: Proportion of flu-positive tests among those tested for respiratory conditions.
152: Patients admitted to hospital with flu during the second week of December.
860,000: Total vaccinations given in Wales so far this flu season.
38%: Vaccination rate among frontline NHS staff.

Definitions and jargon buster

Flu: Influenza, a viral infection that affects the respiratory system.
Public Health Wales (PHW): The national public health agency responsible for protecting and improving health in Wales.
GP: General Practitioner, a medical doctor who treats acute and chronic illnesses and provides preventive care and health education to patients.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

As we approach Christmas, residents should monitor flu activity closely, especially as family gatherings could lead to increased transmission. Vaccination should be prioritised for those eligible.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Expect continuing updates from health authorities regarding flu trends and vaccination rates. Monitoring of hospitalisation rates will be crucial as the peak flu season progresses.

Signals to watch

Flu hospitalisation rates in the coming weeks.
Updates on vaccination uptake in at-risk groups.
Emergence of any new flu strains.

Practical guidance

Do

Get vaccinated if you’re eligible to protect yourself and others.
Practice good hygiene, such as frequent handwashing.
Seek medical advice if flu symptoms worsen or persist.

Don’t

Ignore symptoms; early treatment can prevent complications.
Attend gatherings if feeling unwell.
Assume flu is just a common cold; it can be serious.

Checklist

Have you received your flu vaccine?
Are you practicing good hygiene at home and work?
Have you had a plan in place for seeking medical advice if symptoms arise?

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While the current data indicates a slowing rate of increase in flu cases, uncertainties remain regarding the emergence of new strains and overall flu activity as the season progresses. Predictions made by health officials are based on current trends and may change as more data becomes available. Public health messaging will evolve based on ongoing assessments of flu activity and vaccination rates.

Bottom line

The flu situation in Wales is being carefully monitored as cases continue to rise but at a decelerating rate. With the Christmas season approaching, public health officials are urging those eligible for vaccinations to take action to protect themselves and their loved ones. Adequate vaccination and continued health vigilance will be essential in managing flu risks this winter.

FAQs

How serious is the flu this season in Wales?

Flu cases are currently classified at medium intensity, suggesting a typical winter season. However, public health officials caution that trends could change, and vaccination is strongly encouraged for vulnerable populations.

What should I do if I have flu symptoms?

If you exhibit flu symptoms, such as fever and fatigue, seek medical advice, especially if symptoms worsen or do not improve after seven days. Early intervention can prevent complications.

How can I protect myself from flu during the holidays?

To protect yourself this holiday season, get vaccinated if eligible, practice good hygiene, and avoid gatherings if feeling unwell. Staying vigilant can help reduce flu transmission.