Which West African Nation Is Mastering the Art of Diplomatic Balance?

As geopolitical dynamics shift in West Africa, Togo has emerged as a key player, navigating a complex landscape of alliances between France and Russia. Following the failed coup in neighbouring Benin on 7 December, Togo's role in facilitating the escape of the coup leader highlights its strategic positioning. This article explores Togo's balancing act in foreign relations, its internal political landscape, and the broader implications for the region.

Last updated: 17 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The aftermath of the attempted coup in Benin has left regional tensions high and underscored the intricate web of alliances in West Africa. Lt Col Pascal Tigri, the leader of the coup, is reportedly in hiding, having fled to Togo before potentially seeking asylum in Burkina Faso or Niger. Togo's President Faure Gnassingbé has been careful not to overtly support or condemn the failed coup, maintaining a diplomatic balance that allows Togo to engage with both France and Russia.

Key takeaways

Togo is strengthening ties with Russia while maintaining its relationship with France.
The Lomé regime is navigating regional dynamics carefully amidst increasing instability in West Africa.
Togo's strategic location enhances its role as a transport and trade hub in the region.

Timeline: how we got here

Since 2020, West Africa has witnessed a series of military coups that have altered the political landscape. Key dates include:

7 December 2023: Attempted military coup in Benin, led by Lt Col Pascal Tigri.
30 October 2023: Togo's President Gnassingbé meets with French President Macron in Paris.
Mid-November 2023: Gnassingbé visits Moscow, deepening military ties with Russia.
January 2023: Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali withdraw from Ecowas.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The recent coup attempt in Benin has increased scrutiny on Togo's diplomatic manoeuvres. The Lomé regime's handling of Tigri's escape illustrates its complex position between competing powers.

What was already established

Togo has historically positioned itself as a key transit point for trade in West Africa, leveraging its port facilities and transport corridors to enhance economic ties across the region.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

While the direct impact on UK households may be limited, fluctuations in regional stability can affect global supply chains and trade routes, potentially leading to increased import prices.

Businesses and jobs

Togo's strategic location as a transport hub may attract UK businesses looking to engage with West Africa. However, political instability in neighbouring countries poses risks to investment.

Policy and regulation

The UK government may need to monitor developments closely, particularly regarding human rights and stability in the region, as it could influence foreign policy and trade agreements.

Numbers that matter

1: The number of military coups in Benin this month, highlighting regional instability.
4: The number of countries in the Alliance of Sahelian States, which includes Burkina Faso, Niger, Mali, and potentially Togo.
30%: The percentage of Togo's population that lives in poverty, despite its strategic economic position.

Definitions and jargon buster

Ecowas: Economic Community of West African States, a regional political and economic union.
AES: Alliance of Sahelian States, a coalition of military-led governments in the Sahel region.
UNIR: Union for the Republic, Togo's ruling political party.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Watch for developments regarding Tigri's whereabouts and any further actions taken by the Togolese government concerning regional security.

Medium term (1–6 months)

The potential for increased military cooperation between Togo and Russia could reshape regional power dynamics. Monitor for shifts in alliances and public sentiment within Togo.

Signals to watch

Government statements on security and foreign policy.
Public protests or unrest in Togo related to political repression.
Updates from Ecowas regarding its stance on member states’ military regimes.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about regional developments through reliable news sources.
Consider the implications of West African geopolitics on global markets.

Don’t

Assume that Togo's diversification of relationships will lead to stability in the region.
Neglect the potential humanitarian impacts of political unrest.

Checklist

Monitor Togo's political landscape for signs of unrest.
Assess the impact of regional alliances on trade and investment.
Stay updated on human rights conditions in Togo and neighbouring countries.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The political situation in Togo remains fluid, with the potential for sudden unrest. While Gnassingbé appears confident in his international strategy, underlying discontent poses risks to stability. Furthermore, the evolving relationships with Russia and France may provoke reactions from both domestic and international actors, complicating Togo's diplomatic balancing act.

Bottom line

Togo's strategic positioning between France and Russia underscores the complexities of West African geopolitics. As the region grapples with instability, Togo's ability to navigate these relationships could have significant implications for its future, both politically and economically.

FAQs

What is Togo's current diplomatic strategy?

Togo is pursuing a diplomatic strategy that blends relations with both France and Russia, aiming to diversify its international partnerships without severing ties with its traditional allies.

How does the recent coup in Benin affect Togo?

The coup attempt in Benin has heightened tensions in the region, underscoring the precariousness of political stability in West Africa and Togo's role in navigating these dynamics.

What challenges does Togo face internally?

Togo faces significant internal challenges, including political dissent and economic disparities, which remain under the surface despite the government's efforts at international engagement.