Are Violent Protests Deepening the Crisis in India-Bangladesh Relations?

The killing of a Hindu man during violent protests in Bangladesh has strained diplomatic ties between Dhaka and Delhi, raising questions about the future of their historically close relationship. The incident, involving the lynching of Dipu Chandra Das, has escalated anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh while igniting protests among Hindu nationalist groups in India. As both nations grapple with the fallout, the ongoing tensions threaten to destabilise regional relations further.

Last updated: 10 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The recent violence in Bangladesh has escalated tensions between the two countries, leading to the suspension of visa services in several Indian cities and mutual accusations regarding the safety of diplomatic missions. Following the brutal murder of Dipu Chandra Das, a member of Bangladesh's Hindu minority, protests erupted in India, where Hindu nationalist groups condemned the violence. The situation remains volatile as both nations seek to navigate the diplomatic fallout and address growing public anger.

Key takeaways

• The lynching of Dipu Chandra Das has intensified anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh.
• India and Bangladesh have suspended visa services in several cities amidst rising tensions.
• The security of diplomatic missions has become a major concern for both countries.

Timeline: how we got here

Understanding the recent tensions requires a brief overview of key events:

• 12 February 2023: Bangladesh is set to hold elections amid rising political tensions.
• Week of 3 October 2023: Protests erupt in Bangladesh following the murder of prominent student leader Sharif Osman Hadi.
• Week of 2 October 2023: Dipu Chandra Das is lynched by a mob in Mymensingh, Bangladesh.
• October 2023: Bangladesh police arrest 12 individuals connected to Das’s killing.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The killing of Dipu Chandra Das and the subsequent protests have highlighted the fragility of Bangladesh's social fabric and the rise of anti-India sentiments. Furthermore, the suspension of visa services by both nations marks a significant diplomatic shift.

What was already established

Historically, tensions have existed between India and Bangladesh, particularly concerning issues of governance and influence. Past administrations in Bangladesh have faced criticism for perceived overreliance on India, which has been exacerbated under the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

UK citizens with ties to either country may face disruptions in travel and communication due to the suspension of visa services. Additionally, rising tensions could affect trade relations and economic stability in the region, with potential repercussions for British businesses engaged in South Asia.

Businesses and jobs

UK businesses operating in Bangladesh or India may experience heightened risks due to the current instability. Companies may need to reassess their operations and employee safety protocols in light of the escalating violence and anti-India sentiments.

Policy and regulation

British policymakers are likely monitoring the situation closely, as further deterioration in relations between Bangladesh and India could impact the UK's diplomatic strategies in South Asia.

Numbers that matter

• 27: Age of Dipu Chandra Das, the lynching victim.
• 15: Years of Sheikh Hasina's rule before her recent ousting, contributing to growing anti-India sentiment.
• 12: Individuals arrested in connection with Das's murder.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Awami League: A major political party in Bangladesh, led by Sheikh Hasina.
• BNP: Bangladesh Nationalist Party, a significant political party expected to emerge as a winner in the upcoming elections.
• Radical Islamists: Groups advocating for strict interpretations of Islam, often opposing pluralism and diversity.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, both countries should focus on diplomatic channels to de-escalate tensions. Monitoring the situation for further violence or protests will be crucial.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As Bangladesh approaches its elections on 12 February, the interim government will need to maintain stability to avoid further unrest. The outcome of these elections could reshape the political landscape significantly.

Signals to watch

• Reports of violence associated with the upcoming elections.
• Statements from governmental and political leaders in both Bangladesh and India.
• Public sentiment and protest activities in both countries.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about current events in Bangladesh and India.
• Engage with local communities to understand diverse perspectives.
• Monitor travel advisories if planning to visit these countries.

Don’t

• Ignore the rising tensions; they could escalate rapidly.
• Make assumptions based on media portrayals alone.
• Engage in inflammatory discussions without understanding the complexities.

Checklist

• Review news updates regularly on the situation in Bangladesh and India.
• Understand the political landscape and recent events affecting both nations.
• Follow guidelines from the UK government regarding travel to the region.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The current situation in Bangladesh is fluid, with the potential for further violence as political tensions rise. The involvement of radical elements and their influence on public sentiment poses a significant risk to both national and regional stability. Analysts caution that the narrative surrounding anti-India sentiments can easily shift, leading to unpredictable outcomes for citizens in both countries.

Bottom line

The current tensions between India and Bangladesh call for careful navigation by both governments. With an election looming in Bangladesh, the need for stability is paramount, not just for diplomatic relations but for the safety of citizens. Both nations must strive to rebuild trust and address the underlying issues fueling public anger.

FAQs

What triggered the recent violence in Bangladesh?

The violent protests were triggered by the murder of Sharif Osman Hadi, a student leader, which led to the lynching of Dipu Chandra Das, intensifying anti-India sentiment.

How are India and Bangladesh responding to the crisis?

Both countries have suspended visa services and summoned each other's diplomats to address security concerns following the violent incidents.

What are the implications for minorities in Bangladesh?

The recent events have raised significant concerns regarding the safety of minorities in Bangladesh, as religious fundamentalism appears to be on the rise.