Is the Front-Runner for Bangladesh PM Back to Change the Game After 17 Years in Exile?

Tarique Rahman, the leading candidate for Bangladesh's prime ministerial position, has returned to his homeland after 17 years in exile, coinciding with significant general elections on the horizon. As the son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and a prominent figure in the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Rahman is poised to reclaim political power, particularly following the recent ousting of Sheikh Hasina. His return marks a pivotal moment in Bangladesh's political landscape, especially given the severity of upcoming elections.

Last updated: 17 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Tarique Rahman’s return to Bangladesh signals a potential shift in the country’s political dynamics as the BNP aims to capitalise on the current instability. With general elections scheduled for early 2024, Rahman, who has been living in London since 2008, is anticipated to lead the BNP in its quest to regain power from the ruling party. His figures are being closely watched, as the BNP hopes to emerge as the dominant political force amidst widespread public discontent that has led to calls for reform and accountability.

Key takeaways

Tarique Rahman returns to Bangladesh after 17 years in exile, aiming to lead the BNP in upcoming elections.
Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been ousted, and her party may be barred from participating in the elections.
Rahman was previously cleared of criminal charges after Hasina’s government fell.

Timeline: how we got here

The journey to this pivotal moment in Bangladeshi politics has been marked by significant events:

2008: Tarique Rahman goes into exile in London amid political turmoil.
2022: Sheikh Hasina is ousted, leading to a reshuffling of power dynamics in Bangladesh.
2023: Rahman returns to Bangladesh, setting the stage for the BNP's campaign ahead of the elections in early 2024.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Rahman's recent return is the most significant development, as it positions him at the forefront of the BNP's campaign. The political atmosphere is charged with uncertainty regarding the participation of Hasina's Awami League party, especially with the recent developments surrounding her legal troubles.

What was already established

Rahman had faced multiple criminal charges during Hasina's previous administration, but he was cleared when her government fell. The political landscape had been heavily influenced by the Awami League's governance, which faced criticism for its handling of protests and allegations of human rights violations.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The political changes in Bangladesh will likely have implications for Bangladeshi expatriates in the UK, as well as families with ties back home. Economic conditions may fluctuate depending on the stability of the new government and its policies on trade and remittances.

Businesses and jobs

Businesses with connections to Bangladesh might face uncertainties regarding trade agreements and operational conditions, particularly if the BNP implements significant reforms or changes in foreign policy.

Policy and regulation

Changes in the Bangladeshi government could lead to revised regulations that affect UK-Bangladesh relations, particularly in sectors such as textiles, agriculture, and technology.

Numbers that matter

1,400: The estimated number of fatalities during the protests against Hasina’s government, highlighting the unrest leading to her ousting.
17 years: The duration of Tarique Rahman's exile before his recent return.
2024: The year when Bangladesh is set to hold its next general elections, a crucial moment for the BNP.

Definitions and jargon buster

BNP: Bangladesh Nationalist Party, a major political party in Bangladesh, historically led by the Zia family.
Awami League: The ruling political party in Bangladesh, previously led by Sheikh Hasina.
Exile: A situation where a political figure is forced to live outside their home country, often due to persecution.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

The immediate focus will be on the BNP's preparations for the upcoming elections, including campaign strategies and alliances with other opposition groups. Rahman’s reintegration into Bangladeshi politics will be scrutinised closely.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the elections approach, the political landscape may shift rapidly, especially if further developments occur regarding Hasina's status and the Awami League's participation.

Signals to watch

Upcoming announcements regarding election regulations and the participation of political parties.
Public response to BNP's campaign efforts and any potential alliances formed with other opposition factions.
International reactions to the political changes in Bangladesh, especially from the UK and neighbouring countries.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about the political developments in Bangladesh to understand the implications for expatriates.
Engage with community groups that discuss Bangladeshi politics and its effects on the diaspora.

Don’t

Do not overlook the importance of the upcoming elections and their potential impact on the future of Bangladesh.
Avoid making assumptions about the stability of the new government until after the elections.

Checklist

Monitor news sources for updates on Tarique Rahman and the BNP.
Be aware of how political changes may affect remittances and trade.
Engage in discussions within local Bangladeshi communities regarding the elections.
Follow social media platforms for real-time updates from Bangladesh.
Consider the potential for changes in UK-Bangladesh relations following the elections.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The situation remains fluid, with many uncertainties surrounding the outcomes of the upcoming elections and the future of political parties in Bangladesh. The legal status of Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League's participation are particularly unpredictable, which could significantly alter the political landscape. Additionally, public sentiment is volatile, and any resurgence of protests or unrest could impact the BNP's campaign.

Bottom line

Tarique Rahman's return to Bangladesh marks a significant turning point in the nation's political narrative, especially with the impending elections. The BNP's strategies and public reception in the following months will be crucial in determining whether they can reclaim power and what that means for the future of the country. Observers should remain vigilant in tracking developments as they unfold.

FAQs

Who is Tarique Rahman?

Tarique Rahman is the son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and a prominent leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), recently returned after 17 years in exile.

What are the implications of Rahman's return?

Rahman's return may reshape Bangladesh's political landscape, especially as the BNP seeks to regain power amid the upcoming elections in early 2024.

Why was Sheikh Hasina ousted?

Sheikh Hasina was ousted due to widespread public discontent and allegations of human rights abuses during her administration.