Can Bold Choices Save Your FPL Season?

If you're struggling in your Fantasy Premier League (FPL) this season, there are still opportunities to turn your fortunes around with strategic choices. Experts suggest that with the right adjustments, including focusing on high-performing players like Matheus Cunha and Hugo Ekitike, you can make a comeback and climb the rankings. This article explores six bold suggestions to help you rejuvenate your FPL team during this congested festive period.

Last updated: 07 December 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The current FPL season is proving challenging for many managers, especially those trailing in mini-leagues. However, recent performances indicate that certain players and teams are poised to deliver significant returns. Manchester United's resurgence, particularly with their attacking options, and the ongoing form of players like Matheus Cunha, set the stage for a potential turnaround for latecomers. With the festive schedule approaching, there are ample opportunities for managers to make impactful changes to their squads.

Key takeaways

Matheus Cunha and Hugo Ekitike are key players to consider for immediate gains.
Shifting formations to include five defenders could yield better results.
Investing in teams with favourable fixtures, like Manchester United, can be advantageous.

Timeline: how we got here

Since the start of the 2023/2024 Premier League season, several key events and trends have emerged affecting FPL managers. Here’s a brief timeline of significant milestones:

August 2023: Season kickoff with early standout performances from players like Erling Haaland.
September 2023: Injury woes for key players, causing shifts in FPL strategy.
November 2023: Manchester United began to show improved form, particularly in their attacking play.
December 2023: The festive period begins, presenting a congested fixture schedule that can impact player performance and selection.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent discussions among FPL experts focus on the impact of player injuries and fixture congestion. Matheus Cunha’s impressive return to form and his potential as a key replacement for the injured Bruno Fernandes have been highlighted. Additionally, the value of players like Hugo Ekitike, given Liverpool’s recent shifts in attacking dynamics, has become a focal point for managers looking for alternatives.

What was already established

Prior to recent developments, Manchester United and their attacking potential were already on the radar for many FPL managers. The team has consistently shown high expected goals (xG) rates, suggesting a wealth of scoring opportunities. However, the injury to Fernandes has prompted a reassessment of attacking investments in United's squad.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

As the festive period approaches, FPL managers in the UK may find themselves juggling not only their fantasy teams but also the demands of holiday schedules. The increased frequency of matches could lead to more opportunities for players to earn points, but it also amplifies the risk of injuries and rotation, which could impact overall team performance.

Businesses and jobs

For those in the football industry, including clubs and broadcasters, the festive period represents a critical time for revenue generation. High viewership of matches during this time can lead to increased advertising revenue and merchandise sales, which are crucial for clubs' financial health.

Policy and regulation

As the Premier League continues to navigate player safety and fixture congestion, there may be discussions surrounding player welfare policies. With an eye on maintaining competitive balance, any regulatory changes could influence how teams manage player rotations and injuries moving forward.

Numbers that matter

8: Goals scored by Hugo Ekitike, making him the leading goalscorer for his side this season.
3: Consecutive matches with goal involvements for Matheus Cunha, showcasing his current form.
30%: Ownership percentage of Bruno Fernandes before his injury, indicating he was a low-risk option for many managers.
2: The number of strong fixtures for Manchester United in the upcoming gameweeks, which could yield significant returns.
20: Points scored in a single gameweek by Cole Palmer in the past, illustrating his potential for explosive performances.

Definitions and jargon buster

FPL: Fantasy Premier League, a game where participants create a virtual football team based on real players and earn points based on their performance.
xG: Expected Goals, a metric that estimates the likelihood of a goal being scored from a particular shot based on historical data.
Defcon: A scoring system in FPL that rewards defensive contributions, including clean sheets and bonus points.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Focus on players returning from injury or showing improved form, such as Cunha and Ekitike. Monitor fixture schedules closely to identify teams with advantageous matchups. This period is crucial for making impactful transfers before the holiday fixtures.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Evaluate your team’s balance and consider a shift in formation. As the season progresses, maintaining flexibility will be key, especially if injuries arise or form fluctuates among your players.

Signals to watch

Player injury updates, particularly for key figures like Bruno Fernandes.
Fixture difficulty ratings for teams in the upcoming weeks.
Form trends and performance metrics of players across the league.

Practical guidance

Do

Keep an eye on players returning from injury who could provide immediate benefits.
Consider switching to a formation with five defenders to take advantage of defensive scoring opportunities.
Monitor fixture schedules and player form closely to make informed transfer decisions.

Don’t

Neglect players on teams with favourable fixtures just because they're not highly owned.
Hold onto underperforming players for too long; be proactive in your transfers.
Rely solely on popular picks; exploring differentials can give you an edge.

Checklist

Assess current squad performance and identify potential weak links.
Research players with upcoming favourable fixtures.
Plan potential transfers ahead of the festive schedule.
Check for injury updates on key players regularly.
Consider changing formations to maximise point potential.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

In the unpredictable landscape of FPL, injuries and fixture congestion can drastically alter player performance and availability. Managers should be cautious with their selections and remain flexible in their strategies. Additionally, while relying on less popular picks can yield rewards, it also carries the risk of those players failing to deliver, especially if they feature in teams with poor form or tough fixtures.

Bottom line

While this season may have started slow for some FPL managers, there are strategic opportunities to turn things around with the right transfers and formations. Keeping a close watch on player form, fixtures, and injuries will be crucial in making successful decisions during this congested period.

FAQs

How can I improve my Fantasy Premier League team this season?

To improve your FPL team, consider investing in high-performing players like Matheus Cunha and Hugo Ekitike, while also monitoring fixture schedules and player injuries for strategic transfers.

What are some effective formations for FPL?

Switching to a formation with five defenders can be effective this season, especially since defensive contributions can yield significant points even in low-scoring matches.

Who are the best differential picks for FPL right now?

Currently, players like Dominik Szoboszlai and Cole Palmer are considered strong differential picks due to their potential for high point returns and relatively low ownership rates.