Is 2023 the Toughest Year for Democracy in Africa?

The recent events in Tanzania highlight the growing tensions and challenges facing African politics, particularly in the context of democracy. Following a controversial election marred by violence and opposition repression, President Samia Suluhu Hassan was re-elected with a staggering 98% of the vote. This situation reflects a troubling trend across the continent, where the divide between the governed and their leaders is widening, raising concerns about the future of governance in Africa.

Last updated: 25 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

October 2025 has been particularly tumultuous for Tanzania, where police responded to protests against alleged electoral fraud with deadly force, resulting in several demonstrator deaths. This incident not only shattered Tanzania's long-standing reputation for stability but also sparked outrage across the region. As a result, the electoral process has come under intense scrutiny, with accusations of a return to authoritarianism under President Hassan. This situation mirrors wider unrest and dissatisfaction in other African nations, where democracy is increasingly under threat.

Key takeaways

Demonstrations in Tanzania highlight growing unrest over electoral integrity.
President Samia Suluhu Hassan's overwhelming victory raises concerns about democracy.
Wider African trends show a rise in military-led governments and a decline in democratic governance.
Younger populations are increasingly voicing dissatisfaction with their leaders.
Geopolitical dynamics are shifting, providing African leaders more leeway in governance.

Timeline: how we got here

Since the beginning of 2025, several significant events have unfolded in African politics:

January 2025: Allegations of electoral irregularities mar the elections in Uganda, where President Yoweri Museveni has been in power for 40 years.
March 2025: Protests erupt in multiple African nations due to rising living costs and demands for democratic reforms.
October 2025: Tanzanian police fatally shoot demonstrators protesting the election results, causing national and international outcry.
December 2025: A coup occurs in Guinea-Bissau, marking the eighth military takeover in Africa this year.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The most recent escalation in Tanzania, where police violence against protesters has raised alarms both domestically and internationally, underscores the fragility of democratic processes. The responses from regional bodies have been critical, but the effectiveness of such condemnations remains to be seen.

What was already established

Prior to these events, analysts had noted a worrying trend of declining democratic governance across Africa, exacerbated by military coups and increasing authoritarianism. The ongoing economic challenges, particularly the spike in living costs, have been a common catalyst for public unrest.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The unrest in African nations, including Tanzania, could have indirect impacts on UK consumers, especially in sectors reliant on African exports. Any instability that affects trade routes or production could lead to increased prices for goods in the UK market.

Businesses and jobs

For UK businesses operating in Africa, particularly in sectors like agriculture and mining, the current climate of instability poses risks. Companies may face operational challenges, regulatory hurdles, and reputational risks if they are seen as complicit in undemocratic practices.

Policy and regulation

UK policymakers are likely to scrutinise their diplomatic relations with African nations that are experiencing political unrest. The changing dynamics may prompt a reassessment of foreign aid and trade agreements, particularly if governance continues to decline.

Numbers that matter

98%: Percentage of votes received by President Samia Suluhu Hassan in the recent election, raising questions about electoral integrity.
8: Number of countries in Africa currently led by military governments following coups in 2025.
40: Years President Yoweri Museveni has ruled Uganda, marking a significant period of governance amid allegations of electoral malpractice.
18: Average age of the population in Cameroon, highlighting the generational divide between leaders and citizens.
43: Years Paul Biya has held the presidency in Cameroon, making him the world's oldest sitting president.

Definitions and jargon buster

Electoral fraud: Illegal interference with the election process, including vote manipulation and intimidation.
Coups: Sudden, often violent, takeover of a government, typically by a small group.
Authoritarianism: A political system that concentrates power in a leader or an elite not accountable to the public.
Democratic governance: A system where government is based on the will of the people, expressed through free and fair elections.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, observers should monitor responses from global organisations regarding Tanzania's recent unrest. The potential for sanctions or diplomatic pressure could emerge as a response to human rights violations.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As we move into 2026, the political landscape may shift depending on how governments respond to civil unrest. In nations like Uganda and Cameroon, upcoming elections will be critical in determining the trajectory of governance.

Signals to watch

International responses to Tanzania's election aftermath.
Public protests in response to economic conditions across Africa.
Political developments in countries facing elections, particularly Uganda and Cameroon.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about political developments in African nations.
Engage with reputable organisations that monitor governance and human rights.
Support initiatives that promote democratic governance and accountability.

Don’t

Ignore the impact of geopolitical dynamics on African governance.
Assume that past electoral practices will hold in future elections.
Overlook the voices of young populations demanding change.

Checklist

Review recent election results in Africa for integrity issues.
Assess the impact of protests on governmental policies.
Monitor international reactions to African governance issues.
Stay updated on economic conditions affecting public sentiment.
Understand the implications of military governance in regional stability.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The political landscape in Africa is fluid, with significant risks associated with military coups and declining democratic governance. The effectiveness of regional bodies like the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) in responding to these challenges remains uncertain. Additionally, the influence of global powers on African governance could change, impacting the trajectory of democracy across the continent.

Bottom line

The events of October 2025 in Tanzania serve as a stark reminder of the challenges facing African governance. As discontent grows among young populations, the potential for change exists, but it will require a concerted effort from both leaders and citizens to foster a more democratic and responsive political environment.

FAQs

What events led to the unrest in Tanzania?

The unrest in Tanzania was primarily triggered by allegations of electoral fraud during the recent presidential elections, where President Samia Suluhu Hassan was re-elected under controversial circumstances.

How is the situation in Tanzania reflective of broader African trends?

Tanzania's situation mirrors a wider trend across Africa, where public dissatisfaction with governance is leading to protests and, in some cases, military takeovers, highlighting a growing divide between leaders and citizens.

What role does youth play in African politics today?

The youth in Africa, representing a significant demographic majority, are increasingly vocal about their demands for better governance and opportunities, challenging long-standing leaders and advocating for change.