Is Saudi Arabia Urging the UAE to Exit Yemen Following Recent Port Attack?

The recent escalation in Yemen's conflict is highlighted by Saudi Arabia's backing of a demand from Yemen's presidential council for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to withdraw its forces within 24 hours. This follows a Saudi-led coalition airstrike in Mukalla, aimed at a purported weapons shipment destined for UAE-supported separatists. The situation is critical as it underscores the fractious dynamics within Yemen, where the Southern Transitional Council (STC) seeks independence for southern regions and the ongoing struggle against the Iran-backed Houthi movement continues.

Last updated: 20 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The conflict in Yemen has reached a new peak of tension following the Saudi airstrikes on the port of Mukalla, which the Saudi coalition claims were necessary to neutralise an imminent threat from weapons shipments believed to support the STC. The Saudi foreign ministry has accused the UAE of pressuring the STC to launch attacks in the eastern provinces of Hadramawt and al-Mahra. In response, the Yemeni presidential council has cancelled its defence pact with the UAE, ordering their forces to exit Yemen in an urgent bid to maintain national security and unity.

Key takeaways

Saudi Arabia demands the UAE withdraw its forces from Yemen within 24 hours.
The Saudi-led coalition launched airstrikes on Mukalla, claiming to target weapons shipments for the STC.
The STC rejects Saudi accusations, asserting its role against the Houthis remains pivotal.

Timeline: how we got here

The situation has developed rapidly over recent weeks. Here is a brief timeline of key events:

2014: Yemen's civil war begins when the Houthis oust the internationally recognised government.
2015: The Saudi-led coalition intervenes to restore the Yemeni government.
October 2023: Saudi-led coalition conducts airstrikes on Mukalla, targeting weapons shipments allegedly linked to the UAE-supported STC.
20 October 2023: Saudi Arabia demands the UAE withdraw its forces within 24 hours, escalating tensions further.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The most recent developments include Saudi Arabia's ultimatum for the UAE to withdraw its forces from Yemen. This demand comes after a series of airstrikes targeting what Saudi Arabia describes as military threats posed by the STC. The cancellation of the joint defence pact and the declaration of a 90-day state of emergency by Rashad al-Alimi, the head of Yemen's presidential council, represents a significant escalation in the conflict.

What was already established

Prior to this escalation, the STC had been engaged in military operations against both the Houthis and other jihadist groups, claiming these efforts were necessary for restoring stability in southern Yemen. The STC had formed an alliance with the internationally recognised government to combat the Houthis but has since shifted towards pursuing greater autonomy.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The ongoing conflict in Yemen has serious implications for consumers and households in the UK, particularly concerning energy prices and supply chains. The instability in the region poses risks to global oil supplies, which could lead to increased energy costs for UK consumers.

Businesses and jobs

For businesses, the conflict could disrupt supply chains, particularly in sectors reliant on imports from the Gulf region. Companies with interests in the Middle East may face increased operational risks, impacting jobs and economic stability within the UK.

Policy and regulation

The UK government's stance on foreign conflict and arms sales could come under scrutiny as the situation develops. Potential responses may include reassessing arms export licenses to the parties involved, especially if civilian casualties increase or humanitarian crises worsen.

Numbers that matter

Over 150,000 people have died as a result of the ongoing civil war in Yemen since 2014.
Yemen is experiencing one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, with millions facing food insecurity.
The STC, formed in 2017, now controls significant portions of southern Yemen, including Aden, after a series of military operations.

Definitions and jargon buster

STC: Southern Transitional Council, a political group seeking independence for southern Yemen.
Houthis: An Iran-backed movement controlling much of northern Yemen.
Saudi-led coalition: A coalition of Arab states led by Saudi Arabia, intervening in Yemen's civil war since 2015.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, observers should monitor whether the UAE complies with Saudi Arabia's demand for withdrawal and the potential repercussions if it does not. Any further military actions could escalate tensions significantly.

Medium term (1–6 months)

In the coming months, the focus will likely be on the stability of the STC's control in the south and its ability to maintain partnerships against the Houthis. The humanitarian situation may also worsen, prompting international responses.

Signals to watch

Updates on the status of the UAE's military presence in Yemen.
Reactions from international humanitarian organisations regarding the crisis.
Changes in the dynamics between the STC and the internationally recognised government.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about developments in Yemen and their implications for energy prices.
Consider diversifying supply chains if your business relies on the Gulf region.

Don’t

Ignore the humanitarian situation; awareness can prompt action and support.
Assume stability will return without significant changes in the current political landscape.

Checklist

Monitor media updates on Yemen's conflict.
Evaluate the potential impact on energy costs for your household or business.
Stay engaged with policy discussions regarding arms sales and foreign aid.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

As the situation evolves, uncertainties remain regarding the UAE's military strategy and the STC's potential responses. The balance of power in Yemen is delicate, and miscalculations could lead to wider regional implications. Moreover, humanitarian assessments may not fully capture the scale of the crisis, thus complicating international responses.

Bottom line

The unfolding situation in Yemen highlights the fragility of alliances and the potential for increased conflict. With Saudi Arabia's ultimatum to the UAE and the STC's determination to assert its control, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict. Those with interests in the region should prepare for volatility.

FAQs

What is the current situation regarding the UAE's military presence in Yemen?

Saudi Arabia has demanded that the UAE withdraw its forces from Yemen within 24 hours, following airstrikes on the port of Mukalla that targeted weapons shipments alleged to support the STC.

What role does the Southern Transitional Council play in Yemen?

The Southern Transitional Council (STC) seeks independence for southern Yemen and has been involved in military operations against both the Houthis and other groups, asserting its importance in the ongoing conflict.

How are the humanitarian conditions in Yemen affecting the UK?

The ongoing civil war has led to one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, which could affect global supply chains and energy prices, with potential implications for UK consumers and businesses.