Will Snow and Ice Disrupt Your New Year's Celebrations?

The UK is bracing for a significant cold spell as Arctic air moves in, bringing snow and ice warnings issued by the Met Office. Regions including Aberdeenshire are already experiencing heavy snowfall, with forecasts suggesting that snow could spread to parts of Northern Ireland, England, and Wales by the end of the week. This cold weather is expected to last over a week, with amber and yellow health alerts in place, particularly affecting vulnerable populations.

Last updated: 05 January 2024 (BST)

What’s happening now

The UK is currently in the grip of a cold snap, with temperatures plummeting and heavy snow affecting various parts of the country. The Met Office has issued a yellow warning for Northern Scotland, where snow accumulations could reach up to 30 cm in higher areas. Amber cold health alerts from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) have been activated for North-West and North-East England, indicating that the health risks associated with cold weather are heightened, particularly for the elderly and vulnerable.

Key takeaways

Arctic air is set to affect the UK, bringing cold temperatures and snow.
Amber and yellow health alerts are in place, warning of increased health risks.
Significant snowfall is forecasted for Northern Scotland, with potential for widespread snow across the UK next week.

Timeline: how we got here

The current weather situation has developed rapidly over the past few days, with the following key events:

1 January 2024: Arctic air begins to flow into the UK, leading to a drop in temperatures.
2 January 2024: Heavy snow starts affecting Aberdeenshire, prompting Met Office warnings.
3 January 2024: Amber cold health alerts issued for North-West and North-East England.
4 January 2024: Yellow warnings expanded across Northern Scotland, indicating potential snowfall of 30 cm.
5 January 2024: Ongoing forecasts suggest more widespread snow across England and Wales next week.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

As of this week, the Met Office has confirmed that Northern Scotland will experience significant snowfall from Thursday morning, with forecasts indicating that snow showers will continue into the weekend. The forecast also hints at further snow across other regions, including Northern Ireland and parts of Northern England, by the end of the week.

What was already established

Prior to this week, the UK had seen fluctuating temperatures, but there were no severe weather warnings in place. The recent cold snap marks a drastic change, with the UKHSA issuing alerts due to the anticipated health risks associated with the drop in temperature.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The cold weather will have immediate implications for UK consumers and households. With temperatures expected to be as low as -3 to -5°C, the ability to maintain indoor heating levels of 18°C may be challenging. This could lead to increased energy bills as households attempt to stay warm.

Businesses and jobs

Businesses, particularly in the transport and logistics sectors, may face disruptions due to snow accumulation and hazardous driving conditions. Delays in deliveries and potential road closures could impact supply chains across the UK, affecting both small businesses and larger corporations.

Policy and regulation

Local authorities may need to implement emergency measures to assist vulnerable populations during this cold spell. The UK government has previously activated winter weather plans, which may include opening shelters for the homeless and ensuring that critical services can operate despite the weather conditions.

Numbers that matter

Snow accumulations of 2-10 cm at lower levels and 20-30 cm over higher ground in Northern Scotland.
Temperatures expected to be between 0 to 7°C in many parts of the UK.
Amber health alerts affecting millions in North-West and North-East England.

Definitions and jargon buster

Met Office: The United Kingdom's national weather service, providing forecasts and weather warnings.
UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA): A government body responsible for public health protection and emergency response.
Amber cold health alert: A warning indicating that cold weather may pose health risks to vulnerable populations.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, residents should prepare for continued cold weather and possible snow. It is advisable to keep updated on weather forecasts and heed any public warnings.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the winter progresses, residents may need to consider energy conservation measures and how to maintain safe living conditions during extreme weather events. Local councils might announce additional support measures as necessary.

Signals to watch

Updates from the Met Office regarding weather warnings.
Changes to health alerts from the UKHSA.
Local council announcements about winter support services.

Practical guidance

Do

Keep informed about weather conditions and health alerts.
Ensure heating systems are functional and safe.
Dress warmly and have emergency supplies ready.

Don’t

Don’t travel unless necessary, especially during heavy snowfall.
Don’t neglect vulnerable members of the community—check on elderly neighbours.
Don’t ignore public health warnings regarding cold weather risks.

Checklist

Check heating systems and ensure they are working efficiently.
Stock up on essential supplies, including food and medications.
Have a plan for emergency situations, including contact information for local services.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While forecasts suggest significant snowfall and cold temperatures, weather predictions can change rapidly. It is important to remain flexible and prepared for unexpected developments, including changes in the severity of the weather system and its impact on different regions.

Bottom line

The current cold snap in the UK, marked by snow and ice warnings, poses significant challenges for residents. With temperatures expected to drop sharply and health alerts in place, it is crucial to stay informed and prepared for the potential impacts of this severe weather.

FAQs

How cold does it have to be to snow?

Snow can occur when temperatures are at or below 0°C. However, snow can also fall when temperatures are slightly above freezing, depending on atmospheric conditions.

How do cold weather health alerts work?

Cold weather health alerts are issued by agencies like the UKHSA to warn the public about the potential health risks associated with low temperatures, especially for vulnerable groups.

What should I do during a snow warning?

During a snow warning, it’s best to avoid unnecessary travel, ensure your home is warm, and keep an eye on updates from local authorities regarding services and safety.