Is Wales Ready for a Once-in-a-Century Change?

As Wales approaches a transformative Senedd election in May 2026, the number of politicians in Cardiff Bay will increase from 60 to 96, accompanied by significant changes to constituencies and the voting system. This "once in a century change" could reshape the political landscape, with polls indicating potential challenges to Labour's longstanding dominance from parties like Plaid Cymru and Reform. Engaging voters with these developments remains a critical challenge for campaigners.

Last updated: 02 November 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As the new year begins, the political climate in Wales is charged with anticipation for the upcoming Senedd elections. With the restructuring of the Welsh Parliament, the upcoming vote is poised to be a pivotal moment in its history. The transition to a new voting system and a significant increase in the number of Members of the Senedd (MSs) from 60 to 96 is designed to enhance representation and governance. However, the challenge of ensuring voter awareness about these changes is substantial.

Key takeaways

The number of MSs is increasing from 60 to 96, with a new voting system in place.
Constituencies will be reduced from 40 to 16, each with six MSs.
The reforms are backed by Welsh Labour, Plaid Cymru, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats.
Voter turnout has historically been low, partly due to lack of awareness about electoral changes.
The upcoming election could challenge Labour’s long-standing dominance in Welsh politics.

Timeline: how we got here

The journey towards these significant changes began with the devolution of powers to Wales in 1999. Key milestones include:

1999: Establishment of the National Assembly for Wales, with 60 Assembly Members.
2011: The Wales Act granted further powers, leading to more responsibilities for the Assembly.
2014: The Wales Act 2014 allowed the Assembly to vary its income tax.
2021: A review was initiated to assess the adequacy of the Senedd's representation and capacity.
2026 (May): The upcoming election will implement the changes, with the new voting system and constituency structure.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent discussions have highlighted the urgency for informed voter engagement ahead of the May elections. The electoral reform is expected to reshape the political dynamics significantly, with the potential for new party coalitions and altered voter sentiment. The infrastructure changes to accommodate the additional MSs are also underway, with an estimated cost of £4.2 million to upgrade the debating chamber.

What was already established

The need for reform has been long acknowledged, with critics arguing that the current number of MSs does not adequately represent the population of Wales. The Labour Party has historically maintained a stronghold in Welsh politics, but recent polling indicates that this could change, with other parties gaining momentum. The previous elections have seen turnout rates of less than 50%, signalling a need for increased voter engagement and clarity.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The changes in the Senedd are likely to have implications for consumers and households, particularly in areas of social policy and public services. A more representative parliament may lead to policies that better reflect the needs and desires of the Welsh population. This could include initiatives addressing economic disparities, healthcare access, and education reforms.

Businesses and jobs

For businesses, the electoral reforms could result in a shift in regulatory frameworks and economic policies. The increase in MSs may lead to more diverse viewpoints and approaches, which could influence sectors ranging from construction to technology. The new voting system may also affect the ways businesses engage with local governments and lobby for their interests.

Policy and regulation

The transition to a new governance structure presents both opportunities and challenges for policy-making in Wales. The Welsh Government will need to ensure that the new MSs are adequately briefed on their roles and responsibilities. This might involve significant outreach and education efforts to help both new and returning politicians understand the complexities of their duties in a more expansive parliament.

Numbers that matter

60 to 96: Increase in the number of MSs.
40 to 16: Reduction in the number of constituencies.
£4.2 million: Estimated cost for renovations to the Senedd chamber.
Less than 50%: Historical voter turnout in previous Senedd elections.
6 MSs: Each new constituency will be represented by six MSs under the new proportional system.

Definitions and jargon buster

MS: Member of the Senedd, the elected representatives in the Welsh Parliament.
Senedd: The Welsh Parliament, responsible for making laws and overseeing the Welsh Government.
Proportional system: An electoral system where parties gain seats in proportion to the number of votes they receive.
Electoral Reform Society: An organisation advocating for improvements in democratic processes and voting systems.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, campaigners and political parties must ramp up efforts to inform the public about the new voting system and constituency changes. This will involve community outreach, social media campaigns, and public forums to discuss the significance of the upcoming election.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the election date approaches, the focus will shift towards mobilising voters and ensuring registration. Political parties will likely intensify their campaigning strategies, particularly if polls continue to indicate a shift in voter sentiment. The effectiveness of these efforts will be crucial in determining turnout rates.

Signals to watch

Polling data leading up to the election, particularly any shifts in public support for Labour and other parties.
Voter registration statistics and engagement levels in the weeks before the election.
Public forums and debates that may influence voter perceptions and understanding of the changes.

Practical guidance

Do

Engage with local community groups to learn about the changes.
Stay updated on party platforms and their positions on key issues.
Register to vote early to ensure your participation in the election.

Don’t

Assume prior knowledge; seek information about the changes actively.
Ignore the importance of your vote; every vote counts in this pivotal election.
Wait until the last minute to register or learn about the new system.

Checklist

Check your voter registration status.
Understand the new voting system and how it affects your constituency.
Research the candidates and parties standing in your area.
Attend local meetings or discussions about the upcoming election.
Share information about the changes with friends and family.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While the reforms are aimed at improving representation, there are uncertainties surrounding how effectively they will be communicated to voters. The potential for confusion is high, particularly with the significant changes to constituencies and the voting system. Critics argue that the increased number of politicians may not necessarily translate to better governance. Additionally, low turnout remains a critical risk, as historical trends suggest that many voters are unaware of the electoral process and its implications.

Bottom line

The upcoming Senedd election in May 2026 represents a significant shift in Welsh politics, with the potential to reshape governance and representation in Wales. However, the challenge of engaging voters and ensuring they are informed about the changes is paramount. As Wales stands on the brink of this transformation, the emphasis on voter education and participation will be crucial in determining the future political landscape.

FAQs

What changes are being made to the Senedd elections in 2026?

The number of Members of the Senedd will increase from 60 to 96, with constituencies reducing from 40 to 16. A new proportional voting system will also be implemented.

Why is voter turnout historically low in Welsh elections?

Voter turnout has been less than 50% in previous elections, often due to a lack of clarity regarding the electoral process and insufficient media coverage about changes.

What is the significance of the upcoming election?

This election is considered a "once in a century change" for Wales, with the potential to reshape the political landscape and challenge Labour's historic dominance.