Is Zelensky's Peace Deal Really 90% Ready?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that a peace agreement to end the ongoing conflict with Russia is "90% ready," highlighting the critical importance of the remaining 10% in determining the future of both Ukraine and Europe. This announcement comes amidst escalating tensions, including allegations from Russia regarding a drone attack targeting President Putin’s home, which Kyiv denies. The situation remains fragile, with both leaders expressing contrasting narratives on the path to peace.

Last updated: 01 January 2024 (BST)

What’s happening now

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues to dominate the international landscape, with President Zelensky indicating optimism regarding a potential peace agreement. However, he emphasised that Ukraine seeks a fair resolution and is unwilling to compromise its sovereignty. In stark contrast, President Putin remains defiant, reiterating Moscow's commitment to its military objectives, which complicates the peace process. Tensions have escalated with Russia claiming evidence of Ukrainian drone attacks, which Kyiv firmly denies, potentially jeopardising ongoing negotiations.

Key takeaways

Zelensky claims a peace agreement is "90% ready", with crucial elements still to be negotiated.
Russia alleges Ukraine conducted drone strikes against Putin's residence, which Ukraine denies.
Peace negotiations are expected to resume, with upcoming meetings involving US and European officials.

Timeline: how we got here

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has persisted since 2014, but significant escalations occurred in February 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion. The following critical dates mark the timeline of events leading to the current situation:

February 2022: Russia invades Ukraine, leading to widespread conflict.
December 2022: Initial talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials occur.
January 2023: Peace negotiations stall amid military escalations.
January 2024: Zelensky announces the peace agreement is "90% ready."

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

In his New Year address, Zelensky reiterated the urgency of finalising the peace agreement, stressing that Ukraine would not accept peace at any cost. Meanwhile, Russia has presented claims regarding drone attacks, which they assert could affect their stance in negotiations. The Kremlin is reportedly reviewing its position based on these allegations, which adds a layer of uncertainty to the peace talks.

What was already established

Prior to these latest developments, the conflict had already seen extensive military engagements, with Russia maintaining control over significant portions of Ukrainian territory, particularly in the Donbas region. Negotiations had previously faltered over issues such as territorial integrity and security guarantees, with Zelensky insisting on firm commitments from international allies.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

As the conflict continues, the UK feels the repercussions through rising energy prices and inflation largely driven by the ongoing war. UK households are closely monitoring the situation, as any escalation could further exacerbate the cost of living crisis.

Businesses and jobs

UK businesses are affected by supply chain disruptions, particularly those reliant on energy or materials from Eastern Europe. The uncertainty surrounding the conflict has made market conditions unpredictable, impacting hiring and investment decisions across various sectors.

Policy and regulation

The UK government remains engaged in discussions regarding sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine. Upcoming consultations and decisions in Parliament will be crucial in shaping the UK’s response, especially as international allies convene to discuss collective security measures.

Numbers that matter

75%: Percentage of the Donetsk region currently controlled by Russian forces.
99%: Percentage of the Luhansk region under Russian control.
15 years: Proposed duration of US security guarantees discussed with Ukraine.
600: Estimated number of North Korean soldiers reported to have died supporting Russia.

Definitions and jargon buster

Donbas: A region in Eastern Ukraine comprising Donetsk and Luhansk, currently facing severe conflict.
Security Guarantees: Promises from one country to protect another in case of military aggression.
Special Military Operation: The term used by Russia to describe its invasion of Ukraine, downplaying the conflict's nature.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

As discussions resume, the immediate focus will be on clarifying the terms of the peace agreement and how both sides can address their security concerns. The world will be watching to see if Russia's claims regarding drone attacks will affect negotiations.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Over the next several months, the effectiveness of international diplomatic efforts will be crucial in shaping the outcome of the conflict. Observers will look for signs of compromise, especially regarding the Donbas region, which remains a major sticking point.

Signals to watch

Statements from Zelensky and Putin regarding peace negotiations.
International meetings and commitments made by allies supporting Ukraine.
Changes in military engagements in the Donbas region.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about the latest developments in the conflict.
Support initiatives aimed at humanitarian aid for Ukrainian civilians.
Engage with local discussions on the implications of the war for the UK economy.

Don’t

Ignore the potential impact of the conflict on global markets.
Assume that a quick resolution is imminent; the situation remains complex.
Spread unverified information regarding military actions or peace negotiations.

Checklist

Review the latest news and statements from both Ukrainian and Russian officials.
Monitor energy prices and their fluctuations in response to the conflict.
Consider the implications of the war on personal finances and investments.
Engage in discussions about international policy regarding the conflict.
Support local organisations providing aid to those affected by the war.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While Zelensky’s announcement of a near-complete peace agreement is promising, the situation remains highly volatile. Russia's claims regarding Ukrainian drone attacks could disrupt negotiations and lead to further military actions. The peace process also relies on the willingness of both parties to compromise, which has not been evident thus far. The geopolitical landscape is fluid, with numerous factors that could influence the trajectory of the conflict, including international diplomatic engagements and domestic pressures within both Ukraine and Russia.

Bottom line

The potential for a peace agreement in Ukraine is on the horizon, but significant obstacles remain. The contrasting narratives from Ukraine and Russia highlight the fragility of the situation. For UK readers, staying informed and understanding the implications of the conflict is essential as it continues to shape the geopolitical landscape and economic conditions.

FAQs

What is the status of the peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia?

Ukrainian President Zelensky has stated that a peace agreement is "90% ready," but negotiations face challenges, particularly regarding territorial control in the Donbas region.

How does the conflict impact the UK?

The ongoing war affects the UK through rising energy prices and inflation, with potential ramifications for households and businesses as the situation evolves.

What are security guarantees?

Security guarantees are commitments made by countries to protect another nation from military aggression, which Ukraine is seeking from its allies as part of any peace agreement.