Will Internet and Power Cuts in Iran Spark Nationwide Protests?

The recent protests in Iran, sparked by a call from exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, have escalated significantly, with thousands taking to the streets in a show of support for the monarchy. This surge in public sentiment represents a major test for Pahlavi’s influence over the Iranian populace, as citizens express their discontent with the government's handling of the economy and other grievances. The situation has led to internet blackouts and violent clashes, resulting in numerous casualties and detentions.

Last updated: 16 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The protests in Iran have reached a critical point, with reports indicating that over 100,000 individuals demonstrated on the night of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi's call to action. This represents a significant rallying of support for the prince, who is often referred to as ‘Reza Shah II’ by supporters. Demonstrations have been widespread, affecting not only urban centres but also rural areas across the country. In response, authorities have cut off internet access and telephone lines to suppress communication among protesters.

The situation has escalated into violence, with at least 41 reported fatalities and more than 2,270 individuals detained since the protests began. Recent incidents include the stabbing death of a police colonel in Tehran's suburbs and a shooting that killed two security force members in Lordegan. In another attack, five individuals were killed at a police station in Chenaran, northeast of Tehran. The Iranian government, facing the most severe economic crisis since the 1979 revolution, appears to be struggling to quell the unrest.

Key takeaways

Protests have erupted across Iran following a call to action from Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.
Over 100,000 demonstrators participated in the protests, indicating significant public support for the crown prince.
Authorities have cut internet and phone access to hinder communication among protesters.
Violence has led to at least 41 deaths and over 2,270 arrests amid ongoing demonstrations.
The Iranian government is attempting to address economic issues with a controversial subsidy plan.

Timeline: how we got here

Understanding the timeline of events leading up to the current protests can provide context to the ongoing situation in Iran:

February 1979: The Islamic Revolution leads to the overthrow of the monarchy, with Reza Pahlavi's father fleeing Iran.
September 2022: Protests erupt over the economic crisis and government policies.
October 2023: Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi calls for mass demonstrations, leading to widespread protests across the nation.
Mid-October 2023: Government cuts internet access amid escalating violence and protests.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

This week has seen a significant escalation in protests, with the public openly supporting the monarchy in ways that were previously unthinkable. The government’s response has included severe crackdowns, resulting in fatalities and injuries among both protesters and security forces.

What was already established

The protests have been fuelled by longstanding grievances over economic conditions in Iran, including high inflation and unemployment rates. The Iranian government has struggled to manage the economic fallout from sanctions and has faced criticism for its inadequate responses to public discontent.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For UK citizens, the situation in Iran may have indirect implications, particularly concerning global oil prices and geopolitical stability. As Iran is a significant player in global oil markets, any escalation in unrest could lead to fluctuations in oil prices that affect consumers and industries in the UK.

Businesses and jobs

Businesses with ties to Iran or those affected by the wider Middle Eastern market may face disruptions. Companies may need to monitor developments closely to assess risks to supply chains and market stability.

Policy and regulation

The UK government may need to review its diplomatic relations and policies regarding Iran, especially in light of human rights concerns arising from the current protests and government crackdowns. This could lead to discussions around sanctions or other forms of diplomatic engagement.

Numbers that matter

41: the number of reported deaths related to the ongoing protests.
2,270: the number of individuals detained since the protests began.
100,000: the estimated number of participants in protests sparked by Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi's call.
90 million: the population of Iran, a significant portion of which is affected by the economic crisis.
£5: the monthly subsidy proposed by the Iranian government to help offset economic burdens on households.

Definitions and jargon buster

Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi: The son of the last Shah of Iran, who fled the country during the 1979 revolution and now advocates for a return to monarchy.
Islamic Revolution: The 1979 revolution that resulted in the overthrow of the Pahlavi monarchy and the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Revolutionary Guard: An elite military force in Iran responsible for protecting the Islamic Republic's political system.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, the situation in Iran is likely to remain volatile. Continued protests are expected, especially in response to government actions. Observers should monitor developments closely, particularly regarding any further government crackdowns or changes in public sentiment.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Over the next few months, the Iranian government may attempt to implement economic reforms to address public grievances. However, if these efforts are perceived as insufficient, the potential for ongoing protests and unrest remains high, which could further destabilise the region.

Signals to watch

Government announcements regarding economic policies and subsidies.
Casualty figures and the response from security forces during protests.
International responses, particularly from Western nations regarding human rights concerns.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about the situation in Iran through reliable news sources.
Consider the implications of regional instability on global markets.
Engage in discussions about human rights and support for international efforts to promote democracy.

Don’t

Make assumptions about the outcomes of the protests without following developments closely.
Ignore the potential economic repercussions of the unrest in Iran.
Contribute to misinformation regarding the situation in Iran.

Checklist

Review current news articles for the latest updates on Iran.
Evaluate any business or investment ties to Iran and assess risks.
Stay aware of potential changes in UK government policy regarding Iran.
Engage with organisations focused on human rights to support their efforts.
Discuss the implications of the situation with peers and colleagues.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The situation in Iran is fluid and rapidly changing. The potential for increased violence and government crackdowns remains high, and public sentiment can shift quickly in response to developments. Additionally, the international community's response could significantly influence the situation, adding another layer of uncertainty.

Bottom line

The protests in Iran signal a growing discontent among the populace regarding the economic crisis and government policies. As Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi gains support, the Iranian government faces a challenging landscape that could lead to further unrest. It is crucial for UK citizens and businesses to understand the implications of these events, both for regional stability and global economic conditions.

FAQs

What sparked the recent protests in Iran?

The recent protests in Iran were sparked by a call from exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, urging citizens to demonstrate against the government's handling of the economy and other grievances.

How has the Iranian government responded to the protests?

The Iranian government has responded by cutting off internet access and telephone lines, and has deployed security forces to suppress protests, resulting in violence and multiple fatalities.

What are the implications of the protests for the UK?

The protests in Iran may affect global oil prices and geopolitical stability, which could have indirect implications for UK consumers and businesses, particularly those with ties to the Middle Eastern market.