Is Trump's Warning Influencing Our Response to Protests?

The recent anti-government demonstrations in Tehran mark the largest protests seen in Iran for decades, with thousands of protestors expressing their discontent across the capital and surrounding areas. While security forces in Tehran exhibited a level of restraint, the violent crackdown on protests in smaller cities has raised concerns about the Iranian government's approach to dissent.

Last updated: 01 November 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The atmosphere in Tehran remains charged as protests continue to unfold, drawing attention from various international observers and human rights organisations. Recent reports indicate that the demonstrations, which began nearly two weeks ago, have resulted in the deaths of over 40 individuals, with many more wounded. Although security forces have shown some restraint in the capital, this has not been the case in smaller provinces, where violent confrontations have led to significant casualties.

The Iranian government is facing mounting pressure, not only from domestic dissent but also from international scrutiny. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has responded to the unrest by framing the protests as foreign-inspired sabotage, thereby deflecting blame away from domestic issues. This narrative aims to consolidate support for the regime by portraying the unrest as an external threat.

Key takeaways

• Protests in Tehran are the largest seen in decades, with significant turnout across various districts.
• Over 40 individuals have reportedly died since the protests began, with violence particularly rampant in smaller cities.
• The Iranian government has adopted a dual approach, showing restraint in the capital while responding violently elsewhere.

Timeline: how we got here

The current wave of protests has historical roots, with significant events leading up to this moment:

• September 2022: Protests erupt following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody, leading to over 500 fatalities.
• October 2023: Anti-government demonstrations begin, escalating quickly across Tehran and other urban areas.
• Late October 2023: Reports of over 40 deaths emerge as protests intensify, with a notable disparity in police response between Tehran and smaller cities.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

This week, reports indicate a strategic shift in the Iranian regime's response to protests, with security forces in Tehran adopting a more restrained stance compared to the violent crackdowns observed in other parts of the country. This selective approach suggests an attempt to manage the narrative and limit international backlash.

What was already established

Historically, the Iranian regime has utilised a layered security approach to suppress protests, often escalating from conventional police forces to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) when unrest is perceived as a national security threat. The government's repeated framing of protests as foreign instigated remains consistent with its long-standing narrative to justify its repressive measures.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

As the situation in Iran evolves, UK consumers and households may feel the effects indirectly through shifting geopolitical dynamics. Increased tensions in the Middle East could impact oil prices and supply chains, potentially leading to higher costs for consumers in the UK.

Businesses and jobs

For UK businesses, particularly those with ties to Iran or the Middle East, the ongoing unrest may disrupt trade relationships. Companies may need to reassess their operational strategies and risk management practices, especially if sanctions or restrictions are imposed in response to the Iranian government's actions.

Policy and regulation

The UK government may face pressure to respond to human rights violations occurring in Iran. This could lead to new sanctions or diplomatic initiatives aimed at holding the Iranian authorities accountable for their actions against protestors.

Numbers that matter

• 40+: Estimated number of fatalities reported since the onset of the protests.
• 500: Approximate number of fatalities during the 2022 protests following Mahsa Amini's death.
• 16 million: Population of Tehran's metropolitan area, highlighting the scale of potential unrest.

Definitions and jargon buster

• IRGC: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a branch of Iran's armed forces tasked with protecting the Islamic Republic.
• Basij: A paramilitary volunteer militia in Iran, often involved in domestic repression and enforcement of government policies.
• Foreign-inspired sabotage: A term used by Iranian officials to describe protests they perceive as instigated or supported by external entities.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, observers should monitor the frequency and intensity of protests, especially in smaller provinces where the government has deployed a heavier security presence.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Over the next few months, the situation could escalate further, dependent on the regime's response to ongoing protests. Increased international scrutiny and potential sanctions may shape Iran's internal and external policy decisions.

Signals to watch

• Reports of crackdown intensity in various regions.
• Statements from Iranian leadership regarding internal security and foreign relations.
• Responses from international bodies and governments, particularly concerning human rights violations.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about the situation through reliable news sources.
• Monitor changes in international policy regarding Iran.

Don’t

• Avoid jumping to conclusions about the situation based on unverified social media reports.
• Do not overlook the potential implications for global markets, especially in energy.

Checklist

• Check for updates on casualty figures and protest locations.
• Review any relevant economic forecasts related to oil prices.
• Stay aware of potential shifts in UK government policy towards Iran.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The situation in Iran remains fluid, and the potential for escalation is significant. While the regime's current restraint in Tehran may be a tactical decision, it could shift rapidly in response to perceived threats. Furthermore, international reactions, particularly from the United States and European nations, could impact the Iranian government's future actions.

Bottom line

The ongoing protests in Iran reflect deep-seated discontent with the government and its policies. As the situation develops, it will be essential for international observers to remain vigilant about potential human rights violations and the implications for regional stability. The Iranian regime's response will likely shape the future landscape of protests and government legitimacy.

FAQs

What are the main reasons for the protests in Iran?

The protests in Iran are primarily driven by public discontent over government policies, socioeconomic issues, and perceived human rights violations, including the handling of protests after Mahsa Amini's death.

How has the Iranian government responded to the protests?

The Iranian government has adopted a selective approach, showing restraint in major cities like Tehran while responding violently to protests in smaller regions, leading to significant casualties.

What is the potential impact of these protests on UK consumers?

The protests and subsequent government responses could impact global oil prices and supply chains, potentially leading to increased costs for UK consumers and businesses.