Are Iranian Protesters Just Vandals Seeking Trump's Approval?

The ongoing protests in Iran, which began on 28 December 2022, have escalated into the largest anti-government movement in years, with demonstrators calling for significant political change. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has labelled the protesters as "troublemakers" and "vandals," accusing them of acting in support of US President Donald Trump. The protests, driven by economic grievances, have reportedly resulted in at least 51 deaths among demonstrators, with a significant number of arrests and a complete internet blackout hindering communication and information flow.

Last updated: 12 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The situation in Iran remains highly volatile as protests continue to spread across the country. Demonstrators are expressing their discontent over economic conditions and political repression, with chants of "death to the dictator" directed at Khamenei. The protests have gained support from various sectors, including students and shopkeepers frustrated by the declining currency. As the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatens to suppress the unrest, the risk of violence against protesters is intensifying, particularly during the ongoing internet blackout.

Key takeaways

• Protests have entered their second week, with significant participation across Iran.
• Over 51 protesters have reportedly been killed, with thousands arrested.
• Khamenei has characterised the protesters as acting against the state and foreign interests.

Timeline: how we got here

The protests began on 28 December 2022, triggered by economic hardships, particularly the plummeting value of the Iranian rial. Key dates include:

• 28 December 2022: Protests commence in Tehran.
• 30 December 2022: Demonstrations spread to other cities.
• 4 January 2023: Reports of over 48 deaths among protesters.
• 6 January 2023: Khamenei addresses the nation, dismissing protesters.
• 9 January 2023: Internet blackout imposed, limiting communication.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent reports indicate that the IRGC has issued warnings against the continuation of protests, suggesting a crackdown may be imminent. Additionally, the internet blackout has escalated, complicating efforts for protesters to communicate and coordinate.

What was already established

It was previously known that the protests stemmed from economic issues exacerbated by governmental policies. The regime's violent response to dissent has been a recurring theme, with significant casualties reported during previous uprisings, such as those following Mahsa Amini's death in 2022.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The protests in Iran may have indirect effects on the UK, particularly in terms of oil prices and geopolitical stability in the region. Should the unrest escalate, it could lead to further fluctuations in energy prices, impacting UK households and businesses.

Businesses and jobs

For UK businesses, especially those involved in trade with Iran, the instability poses risks to supply chains and market access. Companies may need to reassess their engagement strategies in light of potential sanctions and heightened tensions.

Policy and regulation

The UK government may face pressure to respond to human rights violations in Iran, particularly if reports of violence against protesters escalate. Diplomatic efforts to address the situation could also intensify, potentially affecting UK-Iran relations.

Numbers that matter

• 51: Reported deaths among protesters since the protests began.
• 2,277: Individuals arrested during the protests, according to HRANA.
• 67: Locations across Iran where protests have been verified.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC): A branch of Iran's armed forces, tasked with protecting the Islamic regime.
• Human Rights Activist News Agency (HRANA): An organisation that reports on human rights issues in Iran.
• Internet blackout: A governmental strategy to restrict access to the internet, often implemented during civil unrest.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, international observers should monitor developments closely, particularly regarding the regime's response to the protests and potential escalations in violence.

Medium term (1–6 months)

In the coming months, the situation may evolve, with the possibility of increased international diplomatic efforts aimed at addressing human rights abuses and economic sanctions against Iran.

Signals to watch

• Government announcements regarding the protests and security measures.
• Reports from human rights organisations about casualties and arrests.
• Changes in international diplomatic relations, particularly with the US and EU.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about developments in Iran through reliable news sources.
• Support human rights organisations working to document abuses in Iran.

Don’t

• Assume that information from Iran is fully accurate during the internet blackout.
• Engage in speculation about the outcomes without verified information.

Checklist

• Stay updated on the latest news regarding the protests.
• Follow social media accounts of human rights organisations for real-time updates.
• Be aware of potential shifts in international relations that could affect the situation.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

It is essential to consider the limitations of available information due to the internet blackout, which restricts reporting and communication. The situation is fluid, and the potential for misinformation is high as various narratives emerge from within and outside the country.

Bottom line

The protests in Iran highlight deep-seated grievances against the government, exacerbated by economic mismanagement and political repression. As the situation evolves, it remains crucial for observers and international actors to monitor developments closely and advocate for the protection of human rights.

FAQs

What triggered the protests in Iran?

The protests were initially triggered by economic grievances, particularly related to the collapsing currency and rising costs of living.

How many people have been affected by the protests?

At least 51 protesters have been reported killed, with over 2,277 arrested since the protests began on 28 December 2022.

What is the government's response to the protests?

The Iranian government, led by Khamenei and the IRGC, has condemned the protests, labelling them as acts of vandalism and treason, while threatening to use force against demonstrators.