Will Uganda's Youth Support an 81-Year-Old for Another Term?

Young people are playing a pivotal role in Uganda's election campaign, passionately supporting their chosen candidates, whether it's the ruling party's long-time leader or the opposition's youthful challenger. The upcoming election serves as a reflection of the generational divide in Ugandan politics, where the voices of the young are increasingly demanding change amid a backdrop of longstanding leadership. This election could define Uganda's political landscape for years to come.

Last updated: 15 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As Uganda prepares for its presidential elections on 26 October 2023, the political atmosphere is charged with energy, especially among the youth. With the median age of Ugandans at just 17, young voters are at the forefront of the campaign, actively engaging in rallies and discussions. The contest features a rematch between 81-year-old President Yoweri Museveni, who has held power for over 40 years, and 43-year-old Bobi Wine, a former pop star turned politician. While Museveni's campaign focuses on stability and continuity, Bobi Wine’s National Unity Platform (NUP) aims to channel the frustrations of the youth, calling for a "Protest Vote" against the status quo.

Key takeaways

The election on 26 October 2023 is a rematch between Yoweri Museveni and Bobi Wine.
Young supporters are central to both campaigns, reflecting a significant generational divide.
Museveni's administration has faced criticism for repression and suppression of dissent.
Bobi Wine appeals to youth frustrations and calls for a transformative change.
The outcome may have broader implications for Uganda's political future beyond this election.

Timeline: how we got here

The political landscape in Uganda has evolved significantly over the past few years, leading up to the current election. Key milestones include:

2021: Bobi Wine challenged Museveni in the presidential elections, which were marred by violence and allegations of electoral fraud.
2022: Bobi Wine's National Unity Platform gained traction among young voters, highlighting issues of unemployment and governance.
October 2023: The presidential election takes place, featuring Museveni versus Bobi Wine once again.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The current campaign has intensified with both candidates ramping up their outreach efforts, particularly targeting youth through social media and public gatherings. Bobi Wine is seen as the voice of a generation seeking change, while Museveni's party emphasises stability and continuity from decades of governance.

What was already established

Historically, Museveni’s regime has faced criticism for a lack of genuine electoral competition, with past elections often labelled as neither free nor fair. The political system remains largely dominated by older leaders, creating a disconnect with the youth, who make up a significant portion of the electorate.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For UK consumers, the political stability of Uganda affects trade relations and investment opportunities. A stable Uganda could enhance economic ties, while political unrest could deter foreign investment and affect aid.

Businesses and jobs

UK businesses operating in Uganda may face challenges depending on the election outcome. A government that prioritises youth employment and economic opportunities could create a more favourable environment for UK investments.

Policy and regulation

Changes in Uganda's political landscape could lead to shifts in regulatory frameworks impacting business operations, trade policies, and human rights considerations, which are increasingly scrutinised by international observers.

Numbers that matter

40 years: Duration of Museveni’s presidency, marking the longest continuous leadership in Uganda's history.
17: The median age of Ugandan citizens, highlighting the youth bulge in the population.
54: Number of people reported to have died during the 2021 election violence, showcasing the potential for unrest during elections.
Over 60%: Proportion of Uganda's population that is under 25, underscoring the importance of youth in shaping political outcomes.
Various protests: Neighbouring countries have seen significant youth-led protests, which could inspire similar movements in Uganda.

Definitions and jargon buster

NUP: National Unity Platform, the main opposition party led by Bobi Wine.
NRM: National Resistance Movement, the ruling party in Uganda.
Protest Vote: A term used to describe voting against the incumbent in favour of change.
Youth bulge: A demographic pattern where a significant proportion of the population is comprised of young people.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate aftermath of the election, observers should monitor the reaction from both camps, particularly regarding any unrest or challenges to the results. International responses, especially from human rights organisations, will also be crucial.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Following the election, the newly elected government will need to address pressing youth issues, including unemployment and education. The level of engagement with young people will be a significant factor in determining political stability.

Signals to watch

Responses from the youth demographic post-election.
International reactions regarding the election's legitimacy.
Any signs of unrest or significant protests following the election results.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about the election process and results.
Engage in discussions about governance and civic engagement.
Support initiatives that promote youth participation in politics.

Don’t

Ignore the significance of the youth vote in shaping future policies.
Dismiss the potential for unrest or protests in the aftermath of the election.
Overlook the importance of international scrutiny on Uganda's electoral process.

Checklist

Review the main candidates and their platforms.
Understand the implications of the election results for the youth.
Monitor local and international news for updates on the election.
Engage with community discussions about the future of Uganda.
Consider the impact of global perspectives on Uganda's political landscape.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While the elections are set to take place, the environment remains fraught with risks. Observers have highlighted the potential for violence and repression, particularly against dissenters. The outcome could be influenced by both domestic and international pressures, making it difficult to predict the political landscape post-election. The situation remains fluid, particularly with the growing influence of youth activism that challenges existing power structures.

Bottom line

The upcoming Ugandan elections represent not just a contest between two candidates but a broader struggle between generational ideals and political realities. The outcome will have lasting implications for the youth of Uganda and the country’s political future, as they assert their desire for change in a landscape dominated by long-standing leaders.

FAQs

What is the significance of the youth vote in Uganda's elections?

The youth vote in Uganda is significant as it represents a large portion of the electorate, with many young people seeking change from the traditional leadership that has dominated politics for decades.

How has the political climate changed leading up to the 2023 election?

The political climate has become increasingly charged, with youth activism rising and the opposition gaining traction. The 2023 elections are seen as a critical moment for asserting youth voices in governance.

What are the potential impacts of the election outcome on Uganda's future?

The election outcome could shape policies regarding youth employment, governance, and civil rights, influencing Uganda's trajectory for years to come.