What Will the US Choose in Its Complex Next Move on Iran?

As tensions escalate in Iran, President Trump faces a critical decision regarding US involvement in the ongoing protests against the Iranian government. Recently, he indicated a readiness to "rescue" protesters if violence were to be used against them, framing the US military's potential response as "locked and loaded." With a violent crackdown now unfolding, the world watches closely for Trump's next move, particularly as he considers various military and diplomatic options.

Last updated: 03 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

In recent days, Iran has witnessed a severe crackdown on protests, prompting President Trump to reassess the US's role in the situation. His administration is reportedly compiling a range of military options, with senior officials set to brief him shortly. The president's prior claims of being "locked and loaded" suggest a readiness to respond strongly if he deems it necessary. However, the potential for military action carries significant risks, especially given Iran's established military capabilities and the complexities of its regional influence.

Key takeaways

• President Trump is weighing military options in response to Iran's violent crackdown on protesters.
• Potential military actions could include airstrikes or cyber operations aimed at disrupting Iran's command structures.
• The administration may also explore diplomatic channels, although the effectiveness of such negotiations is uncertain amid ongoing violence.

Timeline: how we got here

The situation has unfolded rapidly, with key events including:

• **August 2023**: Protests begin in Iran, calling for government reform and an end to repression.
• **September 2023**: Reports of violent crackdowns emerge, escalating calls for international support for protesters.
• **Late September 2023**: President Trump signals readiness to assist Iranian protesters if violence continues.
• **October 2023**: Trump prepares for briefings on military responses while considering diplomatic options.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent developments indicate a more severe crackdown in Iran, with accounts of violence rising amid internet blackouts. President Trump has reiterated his administration's readiness to act, reflecting a shift towards considering military options, although the specifics remain unclear.

What was already established

Prior to this escalation, the US had been monitoring the situation closely, with diplomatic channels remaining open. Trump's administration had expressed interest in reform discussions regarding Iran's nuclear programme, suggesting a complex interplay between military readiness and diplomatic efforts.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

As the geopolitical situation intensifies, UK households may experience indirect effects, including fluctuations in oil prices and potential impacts on energy security. Increased military action in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies, affecting fuel prices and household budgets.

Businesses and jobs

UK businesses, particularly those involved in energy and defence, could see shifts in operations depending on the US's military decisions. Increased tensions may lead to supply chain disruptions or changes in market dynamics, affecting employment and investment opportunities.

Policy and regulation

The UK government may need to reassess its stance on Iran and potential sanctions or diplomatic initiatives. Upcoming consultations on foreign policy could be influenced by developments in US-Iran relations and the UK’s own strategic interests in the region.

Numbers that matter

• **30**: The approximate number of hours B-2 stealth bombers can operate on missions to strike targets in Iran.
• **8**: The number of American servicemen who died during a failed rescue operation in Iran in 1980, highlighting the risks of military intervention.
• **46**: The years since the 1980 hostage crisis, indicating the long-standing complexities of US-Iran relations.

Definitions and jargon buster

• US Military Options: Various strategies the US could employ, ranging from airstrikes to covert operations.
• Axis of Resistance: A coalition of anti-Western groups in the Middle East, including Iranian allies.
• Cyber Operations: Covert actions aimed at disrupting or damaging a country's digital infrastructure.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Expect to see initial military assessments from the Pentagon and potential actions based on the severity of the protests and the Iranian government's response. The US may consider limited strikes aimed at specific targets.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Continued monitoring of the situation in Iran will be critical. The US administration may attempt to balance military readiness with diplomatic negotiations, seeking to leverage any military actions to gain concessions in nuclear talks.

Signals to watch

• Reports on the level of violence against protesters in Iran.
• Statements from US officials regarding military readiness and diplomatic efforts.
• Responses from the Iranian government and its media regarding US actions.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about developments in Iran and US foreign policy.
• Engage in discussions about the implications of foreign interventions in domestic affairs.
• Consider how global events may influence local economies and energy prices.

Don’t

• Assume that military action will lead to immediate positive changes in Iran.
• Ignore the complexities of US-Iran relations and the historical context of military interventions.
• Underestimate the potential for backlash against US actions within Iran.

Checklist

• Review current news regarding the protests in Iran.
• Understand the potential economic impacts of military actions.
• Follow updates on US foreign policy and military strategy.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

Military action against Iran carries significant risks, including potential escalation into broader conflict and retaliation against US interests. The Iranian regime remains resilient, and military strikes could solidify domestic support for the government rather than weaken it. Additionally, diplomatic avenues may become increasingly challenging if military actions are perceived as aggressive rather than supportive of the protesters.

Bottom line

As President Trump weighs his options in response to the violent crackdown in Iran, the complexities of US foreign policy and the implications of military action loom large. The administration must navigate the balance between showing support for Iranian protesters and avoiding further conflict that could destabilise the region. The path forward is fraught with uncertainty, demanding careful consideration of both military and diplomatic strategies.

FAQs

What military options does President Trump have regarding Iran?

President Trump may consider a range of military options, including airstrikes on specific targets, cyber operations, or covert actions aimed at disrupting the Iranian regime's activities.

How might US intervention affect the protests in Iran?

US intervention could potentially embolden protesters by demonstrating external support; however, it may also strengthen the resolve of the Iranian regime and lead to a rallying effect among its supporters.

What are the risks of military action in Iran?

Military action in Iran carries risks of escalation, potential backlash against US interests, and the possibility of solidifying support for the Iranian regime among its citizens.