Will 2025's Cooler Temperatures Be Followed by More Heat Records?

In 2025, global temperatures remained significantly elevated, influenced by the La Niña weather pattern, but were slightly lower than the record highs of 2024. Despite this temporary cooling, the last three years have been the warmest on record, highlighting the urgent need to address climate change as humanity's carbon emissions continue to rise. This data from the European Copernicus climate service and the Met Office underscores the importance of immediate action to mitigate further temperature increases.

Last updated: 15 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The current climate data indicates that while 2025 did not surpass the extreme temperatures observed in 2024, the global average temperature still exceeded 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. This notable warmth persists despite the natural cooling effects of La Niña, a phenomenon that typically lowers global temperatures. The implications for UK residents are significant, as the nation grapples with rising temperatures and increased frequency of extreme weather events linked to climate change.

Key takeaways

• 2025 was warmer than any year prior to the last three record-breaking years.
• Global average temperature reached over 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels.
• La Niña slightly cooled temperatures in 2025, but the long-term trend remains concerning.
• Extreme weather events continue to escalate, indicating ongoing climate impacts.
• Experts warn that we are approaching the critical 1.5°C limit set by international agreements.

Timeline: how we got here

Understanding the current climate situation requires a look at recent history:

• 2015: Nearly 200 countries agreed to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
• 2023: Record temperatures were set, prompting widespread concern among scientists.
• 2024: The hottest year on record, significantly influenced by El Niño conditions.
• 2025: Temperatures remained high but were slightly lower than in 2024 due to La Niña.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent reports indicate that despite the cooling effects of La Niña, the global temperature in 2025 remains alarmingly high. Scientists express concerns that if current trends continue, we may exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold by the end of this decade. The data suggests that the effects of climate change are intensifying, leading to more frequent and severe weather events.

What was already established

It has long been understood that human activities, particularly carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels, are driving long-term global warming. Previous studies have shown a clear correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and rising temperatures, with the last decade consistently breaking temperature records.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

As global temperatures rise, UK households may experience increased energy costs due to the demand for cooling in warmer summers and heating in milder winters. Additionally, the risk of extreme weather events, such as flooding and heatwaves, poses a threat to infrastructure and public safety.

Businesses and jobs

Increased temperatures could disrupt supply chains, particularly in agriculture and construction, where weather conditions play a critical role. Businesses may need to adapt to changing regulations aimed at reducing emissions, impacting hiring and operational costs.

Policy and regulation

The UK government will likely face pressure to enhance its climate policies to meet international commitments. Upcoming consultations and legislative measures may focus on reducing emissions and promoting sustainable practices across various sectors.

Numbers that matter

• 1.4°C: The global average temperature rise above pre-industrial levels recorded in 2025.
• 2024: The warmest year on record, surpassing previous highs by significant margins.
• Nearly 200 countries: The number of nations that agreed to limit global warming to 1.5°C in 2015.
• Three consecutive years: The duration over which record global temperatures have been observed.
• El Niño: A weather pattern that contributed to heightened temperatures in 2023 and 2024.

Definitions and jargon buster

• La Niña: A climate pattern characterized by cooler ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, often leading to decreased global temperatures.
• El Niño: A climate pattern associated with warmer ocean temperatures in the Pacific, which typically raises global temperatures.
• Pre-industrial levels: Refers to global temperatures before widespread industrial activity, typically defined as the late 1800s.
• Greenhouse gases: Gases in the Earth's atmosphere that trap heat, such as carbon dioxide and methane.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Immediate actions may involve monitoring local climate policies and engaging with community initiatives aimed at reducing emissions. This is also a time for individuals and businesses to assess their carbon footprints and explore sustainability options.

Medium term (1–6 months)

In the medium term, stakeholders should prepare for potential changes in government regulations and adapt their practices accordingly. This may involve investing in renewable energy, enhancing energy efficiency, and participating in carbon reduction strategies.

Signals to watch

• Government announcements regarding climate policy changes.
• Regional climate impact reports detailing local weather patterns and projections.
• Trends in global temperature data released by climate monitoring organisations.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about climate trends and government policies.
• Reduce personal and organisational carbon footprints through energy efficiency.
• Engage in community efforts to promote sustainability.

Don’t

• Ignore the potential impact of climate change on daily life and business operations.
• Assume that warming trends will stabilise without intervention.
• Delay personal or organisational efforts to reduce emissions.

Checklist

• Assess your carbon footprint and identify areas for improvement.
• Explore renewable energy options for your home or business.
• Engage with local environmental groups or initiatives.
• Stay updated on climate-related news and policies.
• Consider implementing sustainable practices in your daily life.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While current climate data shows a concerning trend, uncertainties remain regarding the long-term implications. Natural climate variability, such as the El Niño and La Niña cycles, complicates predictions. Additionally, while carbon emissions are the primary driver of warming, other factors, including atmospheric particles and cloud cover, may also significantly influence temperature trends. Ongoing research is necessary to fully understand these dynamics.

Bottom line

The climate data from 2025 highlights a persistent trend of rising global temperatures that calls for immediate action to mitigate climate change impacts. With the world on track to exceed critical temperature thresholds, it is crucial for individuals, businesses, and governments to prioritise sustainability efforts now to secure a more stable climate future.

FAQs

What is the significance of the 1.5°C limit?

The 1.5°C limit is a target set by nearly 200 countries to avoid severe climate impacts, aiming to maintain global warming below this threshold to mitigate disastrous weather events.

How do El Niño and La Niña affect global temperatures?

El Niño typically raises global temperatures, while La Niña tends to cool them. These weather patterns influence climate variability, impacting temperature fluctuations each year.

What can individuals do to combat climate change?

Individuals can reduce their carbon footprints by adopting energy-efficient practices, using renewable energy sources, and supporting local sustainability initiatives to combat climate change.