What Caused Somalia's Anger Towards the UAE?

Somalia's diplomatic efforts have intensified amid a significant geopolitical shift following Israel's recognition of Somaliland as an independent state. The Somali government is rallying international support against this recognition, leading to a sharp decline in relations with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has previously played a crucial role in Somalia's security and economy. This article explores the current circumstances, implications for the region, and the potential future of Somali-UAE relations.

Last updated: 06 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Somalia's government is currently engaged in multifaceted diplomatic efforts to counter the fallout from Israel's recognition of Somaliland, which has been celebrated as a historic achievement by the breakaway region. Somalia's leadership perceives this recognition as a direct affront to its territorial integrity and is seeking support from other nations to oppose it. This diplomatic campaign has resulted in the cancellation of all port management and security agreements with the UAE, a country that has historically been a significant ally.

Key takeaways

Somalia has severed port agreements with the UAE, citing sovereignty concerns.
Israel's recognition of Somaliland has intensified Somalia's diplomatic initiatives.
The UAE has played a significant role in Somalia's economic and security landscape.
Relations between Somalia and the UAE have been deteriorating since 2024.
Somalia's federal government lacks control over certain semi-autonomous regions.

Timeline: how we got here

Understanding the timeline surrounding these developments is crucial for grasping the complex dynamics at play:

**Late December 2022:** Israel becomes the first country to recognise Somaliland's independence, leading to celebrations in Hargeisa.
**2024:** Ethiopia signals a willingness to recognise Somaliland, raising Somali suspicions regarding UAE's involvement.
**October 2023:** Somalia's government announces the cancellation of agreements with the UAE, accusing it of undermining Somalia's sovereignty.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Somalia's decision to cancel agreements with the UAE marks a significant shift in diplomatic relations, reflecting the government's growing frustration with perceived foreign interference and the implications of Israel's actions regarding Somaliland.

What was already established

The longstanding partnership between Somalia and the UAE has been marked by mutual interests, particularly in security and economic development. However, increasing tensions and suspicions have strained this relationship over the years.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The broader geopolitical shifts in the Horn of Africa may influence trade routes and security in the region, which could have indirect effects on UK consumers, particularly concerning imports from the Horn of Africa and potential changes in shipping costs.

Businesses and jobs

UK businesses involved in trade with Somalia or the region may need to reassess their strategies in light of these evolving dynamics. The instability could impact supply chains and necessitate increased due diligence when engaging with Somali ports.

Policy and regulation

For UK policymakers, the unfolding situation necessitates close monitoring of diplomatic relations in the region and potential shifts in alliances. The UK's historical ties with both Somalia and the UAE could influence its diplomatic approach moving forward.

Numbers that matter

3,000 km: The length of Somalia's coastline, vital for trade and security operations.
30 years: The duration since Somaliland declared independence from Somalia.
1,864 miles: The equivalent distance of Somalia's coastline in miles, highlighting its strategic maritime significance.
2020: The year when the Abraham Accords were established, leading to shifts in diplomatic relations in the region.

Definitions and jargon buster

Somaliland: A self-declared independent region in northern Somalia that has not received international recognition.
Abraham Accords: A series of agreements to normalise relations between Israel and several Arab nations.
UAE: United Arab Emirates, a federation of seven emirates located on the southeast corner of the Arabian Peninsula.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the upcoming weeks, Somalia's diplomatic efforts are likely to intensify as it seeks to solidify alliances with other nations opposing the recognition of Somaliland. Expect continued media coverage and potential regional summits addressing these issues.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Over the next several months, the impact of these diplomatic tensions will unfold, particularly regarding the stability of Somalia and its relationships with both the UAE and Somaliland. Observers should watch for potential shifts in regional partnerships.

Signals to watch

Statements from Somali and UAE officials regarding future cooperation or reconciliation.
Developments in Somaliland’s international engagements, particularly with Israel.
Reactions from other regional powers, such as Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about developments in Somalia and the Horn of Africa.
Monitor changes in trade routes and shipping policies that may affect your business.
Engage with experts who understand the complexities of Somalia's political landscape.

Don’t

Assume stability in the region without ongoing analysis of political developments.
Dismiss the importance of local alliances and their impact on international relations.
Overlook the potential economic implications of geopolitical shifts.

Checklist

Assess your business's exposure to Somali ports and trade routes.
Review partnerships and alliances in light of the evolving political situation.
Engage with diplomatic channels to understand potential impacts on your operations.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While Somalia's government has made a decisive move against the UAE, it is crucial to note that the federal government has limited authority over the semi-autonomous regions. As such, the long-term efficacy of these decisions remains uncertain, as local administrations may not align with the federal stance. The situation is fluid, and ongoing developments may alter the current trajectory of diplomatic relations.

Bottom line

The recent diplomatic fallout between Somalia and the UAE underscores the complexities of regional politics in the Horn of Africa, exacerbated by Israel's recognition of Somaliland. As Somalia seeks to reassert its sovereignty and rally support against this recognition, the path forward remains fraught with challenges, particularly regarding the influence of external actors and the internal dynamics within Somalia itself.

FAQs

Why did Somalia cancel agreements with the UAE?

Somalia cancelled its agreements with the UAE due to perceived interference in its sovereignty, particularly in light of Israel's recognition of Somaliland as an independent state.

What impact does Israel's recognition of Somaliland have on Somalia?

Israel's recognition of Somaliland is seen by Somalia as an infringement of its territorial integrity, prompting diplomatic efforts to rally opposition from other countries.

How does this situation affect trade and security in the region?

The deterioration of relations between Somalia and the UAE could impact trade routes and security operations in the region, affecting stability and economic conditions.