Is Semenyo a Must-Have in This Week's FPL Team?

The return of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) brings exciting decisions for managers, especially in light of the upcoming Manchester derby. Historically, matches between Manchester City and Manchester United have produced an average of 3.1 goals per game since the 2020-21 season. However, recent trends at Old Trafford suggest potential for low-scoring encounters, as two of the last five league fixtures there ended in 0-0 draws. This creates uncertainty for FPL managers, particularly those with assets from both teams.

Last updated: 14 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As FPL resumes, managers are evaluating their line-ups ahead of the critical Manchester derby on Saturday. With many teams featuring key players from both Manchester City and Manchester United, the choice of starting these assets is pivotal. The outcome of this match could significantly affect FPL standings, given the attacking prowess both teams are capable of, despite recent inconsistencies in goal-scoring from United at home.

Key takeaways

Manchester derbies have historically been high-scoring, averaging 3.1 goals per match since 2020-21.
Recent league matches at Old Trafford have seen two 0-0 draws in the last five encounters.
FPL managers are advised to consider form and match-up stats when selecting players for the derby.

Timeline: how we got here

Since the start of the 2020-21 season, several key matches have shaped the expectations for future derbies:

2020-21: City dominated with a 2-0 win at Old Trafford.
2021-22: United managed a surprise 2-0 victory at the Etihad Stadium.
2022-23: A high-scoring affair saw City winning 6-3 at home.
2023-24: City continued their dominance with a 3-0 victory at Etihad Stadium.
October 2023: The next derby takes place at Old Trafford, highlighting the contrasting home forms of both teams.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent performances have shifted the focus towards the attacking capabilities of Manchester City, particularly with new signings like Antoine Semenyo making an impact. Conversely, Manchester United’s struggle to maintain clean sheets may provide opportunities for City’s attackers.

What was already established

The historical trend of Manchester derbies being high-scoring remains, but the recent form at Old Trafford indicates a potential for low-scoring matches, as two recent games there ended in stalemates. This duality presents a dilemma for FPL managers weighing their options.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The Manchester derby not only engages football fans but also impacts local businesses, with increased foot traffic expected in Manchester on match day. Pubs and restaurants often see a surge in customers, affecting local economies.

Businesses and jobs

The derby is a significant event for local businesses, offering them a chance to boost sales through match day promotions and viewing parties. This can lead to temporary job opportunities in the hospitality sector.

Policy and regulation

Local authorities often implement measures to ensure public safety during large events like the Manchester derby, which may include increased policing and traffic management. However, there are currently no specific new regulations announced for this match.

Numbers that matter

3.1: Average goals per derby match from the 2020-21 to 2024-25 seasons.
0: Number of goals scored in two of the last five league matches at Old Trafford.
54: Total points scored by the selected team of the week in the latest FPL round.

Definitions and jargon buster

FPL: Fantasy Premier League, a game where managers create teams using real Premier League players and earn points based on their performances.
Clean sheet: A match where a team does not concede any goals.
Bonus points: Additional points awarded to players based on their performances in a match.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Monitor player performances in the upcoming matches, particularly focusing on the Manchester derby. Consider the implications of injuries or form on team selections.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Assess the overall performance trends of key players throughout the season, adjusting team strategies in accordance with fixture difficulty and player form.

Signals to watch

Player injuries and recovery times.
Changes in manager tactics or formations, particularly in response to derby results.
Upcoming fixture schedules that may influence player rotation.

Practical guidance

Do

Research player form and historical performance in derbies.
Consider starting attacking assets from both Manchester clubs if expecting a high-scoring match.

Don’t

Overlook form and fitness; avoid starting players who are struggling or recently injured.
Assume past performances will directly predict future results without considering the current context.

Checklist

Review player form over the last three matches.
Check for any injury news ahead of the match day.
Evaluate the implications of match location on team performance.
Stay updated on any tactical changes announced by managers.
Consider the potential for bonus points based on players' roles in upcoming fixtures.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

As always in fantasy football, unpredictability reigns. Despite historical data suggesting high-scoring games, recent form at Old Trafford raises the potential for a low-scoring match. Additionally, injuries or tactical changes could significantly influence outcomes, making it essential to remain flexible with team selections.

Bottom line

FPL managers face a critical decision-making moment with the upcoming Manchester derby. The historical data suggests a potential for goals, yet recent trends at Old Trafford indicate the possibility of a scoreless affair. Remaining agile in team selection and monitoring player performances closely will be crucial for success.

FAQs

Will there be a lot of goals in the Manchester derby?

While historically Manchester derbies average 3.1 goals, recent matches at Old Trafford have seen two 0-0 draws, making predictions uncertain for this encounter.

Which players should I consider for the derby?

Key players to consider include Erling Haaland, Bruno Guimaraes, and Antoine Semenyo, all of whom have shown strong performances leading up to the match.

How can I prepare my FPL team for the weekend?

Review player form, check for injuries, and consider starting players from both Manchester clubs if you anticipate a high-scoring game.