Is Wales' Finance Secretary Ignoring the Economy? Insights from the First Minister

Eluned Morgan, the First Minister of Wales, has expressed a significant ideological divide with her predecessor, Mark Drakeford, particularly regarding economic priorities. While Drakeford focused on direct support for the poor, Morgan aims to alleviate poverty through job creation and skills development. This nuanced difference comes against a backdrop of declining Labour support ahead of the upcoming Senedd election.

Last updated: 27 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Eluned Morgan's comments highlight a critical shift in Welsh Labour's approach to economic policy as the party prepares for the Senedd election on 7 May 2024. Morgan, who has taken a more proactive stance on economic growth, is positioning herself and her administration to focus on job creation and skills development. This approach contrasts sharply with the previous leadership under Drakeford, who was more focused on immediate social welfare interventions. The implications of this ideological split could have significant repercussions for Labour's electoral prospects, especially as recent polling indicates that the party has slipped behind rivals such as Plaid Cymru and Reform.

Key takeaways

• Eluned Morgan distinguishes her economic agenda from Mark Drakeford's focus on direct welfare support.
• The upcoming Senedd election on 7 May 2024 poses challenges for Labour, with polls suggesting a loss of support.
• Morgan aims to tackle poverty by prioritising job creation and skills training.

Timeline: how we got here

Since Eluned Morgan took office as First Minister, several key events have shaped the current political landscape:

• 2018: Mark Drakeford becomes First Minister, focusing on social welfare policies.
• 2022: Eluned Morgan hosts an international investment summit, signalling a shift towards economic growth.
• 2023: Morgan publicly states her differences with Drakeford on economic priorities.
• 7 May 2024: Upcoming Senedd election, with Labour facing challenges in polling against rivals.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Eluned Morgan's recent comments on her economic priorities reveal a clear departure from Mark Drakeford's focus on immediate social support. This distinction has become particularly relevant as Labour navigates a challenging electoral landscape, with polling showing a decline in support.

What was already established

Mark Drakeford's leadership was characterised by a strong commitment to social welfare and direct intervention for the disadvantaged. His tenure saw significant efforts to improve support for those in need, but now Morgan is advocating for a strategy centred on sustainable economic development.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

As Eluned Morgan prioritises job creation and skills training, the impact on Welsh households could be profound. Increased job opportunities may lead to higher household incomes and reduced poverty levels. However, if Labour continues to lose ground to rival parties, there could be uncertainties regarding funding for these initiatives.

Businesses and jobs

For Welsh businesses, Morgan's focus on economic growth could translate into a more favourable environment for investment and job creation. However, the transition may require businesses to adapt to new policies and initiatives aimed at enhancing workforce skills and employment opportunities.

Policy and regulation

The ideological shift in Welsh Labour may prompt changes in policy direction. Upcoming consultations and legislative actions could reflect Morgan's emphasis on economic development, potentially leading to new regulations aimed at supporting businesses and creating job opportunities.

Numbers that matter

• £25 billion: The Welsh government's budget, which Mark Drakeford oversees as finance secretary.
• 7 May 2024: The date of the upcoming Senedd election, crucial for Labour's future.
• Recent polls indicate Labour has fallen to fourth place, trailing behind Plaid Cymru and Reform.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Senedd: The Welsh Parliament, responsible for devolved legislative powers in Wales.
• Plaid Cymru: A political party in Wales that advocates for Welsh nationalism and independence.
• Reform: A political party in Wales focused on reforming governance and policies.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, Morgan's administration will likely focus on consolidating support for its economic agenda as the election approaches. This may involve announcements of new initiatives aimed at job creation and skills training.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the election date nears, Labour will need to evaluate its strategies to regain support from disillusioned voters. Morgan may also seek to differentiate her policies further from those of her predecessor to solidify her leadership identity.

Signals to watch

• Polling results leading up to the 7 May election.
• Any announcements regarding new economic initiatives or support programmes from Morgan's administration.
• Responses from rival parties, particularly Plaid Cymru and Reform, to Labour's evolving policies.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about Labour's evolving policies and how they may impact local communities.
• Engage with community initiatives that promote job creation and skills development.
• Consider how changes in government may affect business operations or employment opportunities.

Don’t

• Assume that Labour's current polling decline will remain unchanged; watch for shifts in public opinion.
• Neglect to participate in local discussions about economic policies and community needs.
• Ignore the potential impact of rival parties' strategies on Labour's future.

Checklist

• Review upcoming community meetings or forums discussing economic policies.
• Engage with local business leaders about the impact of government policies on the economy.
• Follow Labour's announcements closely to stay updated on their economic agenda.
• Explore opportunities for skills training in your area.
• Consider your voting options for the upcoming Senedd election.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The political landscape in Wales is fluid, and Labour's polling may fluctuate as the election approaches. Additionally, economic conditions, such as inflation or unemployment rates, could influence public perception of Morgan's economic strategy. Uncertainties surrounding funding for new initiatives may also affect the feasibility of her plans to create jobs and provide skills training.

Bottom line

Eluned Morgan's distinct focus on job creation and skills development marks a significant shift in Welsh Labour's economic strategy. As the party faces a challenging electoral environment, understanding this ideological divergence from Mark Drakeford's legacy will be crucial for voters. The coming months will be pivotal in determining Labour's approach to poverty alleviation and economic growth in Wales.

FAQs

What is Eluned Morgan's key economic focus?

Eluned Morgan's key economic focus is on creating jobs and providing skills training to alleviate poverty, contrasting with Mark Drakeford's emphasis on direct welfare support.

When is the next Senedd election?

The next Senedd election is scheduled for 7 May 2024, a crucial date for Welsh Labour as they navigate declining poll numbers.

How has polling affected Labour's position in Wales?

Recent polling indicates Labour has fallen behind rival parties like Plaid Cymru and Reform, prompting Eluned Morgan to reassess the party's economic and social strategies.