Will Snow and Ice Make a Comeback This January?

A significant winter weather pattern is currently affecting the UK, with snow and cold temperatures dominating the early part of January. This has created a winter wonderland in some areas, while the potential for more snow and ice remains in the forecast. With competing weather systems battling for dominance, UK residents can expect a mix of conditions, including the possibility of further wintry weather as the month progresses.

Last updated: 14 January 2024 (BST)

What’s happening now

As we navigate deeper into January, the UK is experiencing a clash of air masses resulting in unpredictable weather. Following a significant cold snap at the start of the month, which brought heavy snowfall and biting temperatures, milder Atlantic air has since been ushered in. However, forecasts suggest that colder conditions may return, leading to potential snowfall across various regions. The immediate future sees a predominance of mild, moist air from the Atlantic, but colder influences from the east threaten to reshape the weather landscape again.

Key takeaways

The UK is currently experiencing a mix of mild and cold weather patterns.
Recent snow has created winter wonderland conditions in many areas.
Colder temperatures and the possibility of snow are expected to return later in January.
Flooding has occurred due to a combination of rain and snow melt in some regions.
The balance of weather systems creates uncertainty in forecasts for the coming weeks.

Timeline: how we got here

Understanding the current weather situation requires a look back at recent developments:

1 January 2024: Harsh winter weather brings Arctic winds and heavy snowfall across the UK.
5 January 2024: A notable shift in the jet stream allows milder Atlantic air to enter, raising temperatures to seasonal averages.
10 January 2024: Widespread rainfall and snow melt lead to localised flooding in various areas.
14 January 2024: Forecasts indicate a potential drop in temperatures, with the risk of more snow as competing air masses vie for dominance.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of colder air from eastern Europe influencing the UK's weather patterns. This could lead to a significant drop in temperatures and the return of wintry conditions, potentially resulting in further snowfall.

What was already established

Earlier in January, the UK experienced a notable cold snap, with heavy snowfall in several regions. The transition to milder Atlantic weather brought temporary relief but also introduced risks such as flooding due to rapid snow melt.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

As temperatures fluctuate, consumers can expect mixed weather conditions impacting daily life. The initial snowfall created picturesque scenes, but as milder conditions brought rain, flooding concerns emerged in some areas. Households may need to prepare for possible snow later in the month, which could disrupt travel plans and daily activities.

Businesses and jobs

For businesses, the weather can significantly impact operations, especially in sectors such as transport and retail. Disruptions due to snow or flooding may hinder supply chains and customer access. Companies should remain flexible in their planning as weather conditions are expected to remain changeable.

Policy and regulation

Local authorities may need to implement response plans for flooding or snow-related issues as conditions evolve. These responses could include road maintenance, public safety advisories, and support for vulnerable populations affected by the winter weather.

Numbers that matter

10 cm: Average snowfall recorded in parts of northern England during the recent cold snap.
5°C: The rise in temperature observed with the arrival of milder Atlantic air.
30%: Estimated chance of snowfall returning to the UK as cold air masses approach.
2: Number of competing weather systems influencing current conditions across the UK.
50%: Likelihood of flooding in areas with already saturated ground due to recent rainfall.

Definitions and jargon buster

Jet stream: Fast-flowing air currents in the atmosphere that influence weather patterns.
Air mass: A large body of air with uniform temperature and humidity characteristics.
Cold snap: A sudden and brief period of cold weather.
Flooding: Overflow of water onto normally dry land, often caused by heavy rain or snow melt.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, expect a mix of weather conditions, with mild temperatures dominating before a potential shift towards colder air. Residents should stay updated on local forecasts for the latest information.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As we progress through winter, monitoring weather patterns will be crucial. The potential for significant cold spells should be acknowledged, especially as the month of January unfolds.

Signals to watch

Watch for updates on temperature predictions as the month progresses.
Keep an eye on local weather advisories regarding flooding or snowfall.
Track the movement of the jet stream to anticipate changes in weather patterns.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about local weather conditions and advisories.
Prepare for potential travel disruptions due to snow or flooding.
Check on vulnerable neighbours, especially during colder spells.

Don’t

Ignore warnings about flooding or severe weather.
Make unnecessary travel plans during adverse weather conditions.
Assume temperatures will remain stable; stay updated as conditions change.

Checklist

Review your emergency supplies in case of severe weather.
Have a contingency plan for travel during snowy conditions.
Ensure heating systems are functioning properly before the cold returns.
Keep up to date with local news for weather updates.
Monitor local community resources for support during winter weather.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

Weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, especially with competing air masses influencing conditions. The timing and extent of colder weather, as well as its potential impacts, can vary significantly. Residents should remain cautious and be prepared for rapid changes in weather, particularly in terms of snowfall and flooding risks.

Bottom line

The winter weather across the UK is characterised by significant variability, with current mild conditions expected to give way to colder temperatures and potential snowfall. As January progresses, residents should remain vigilant and prepared for any winter weather developments that may arise.

FAQs

Will there be more snow later this month?

Forecasts indicate that there is a possibility of more snow as temperatures drop towards the end of January, especially in higher ground areas.

What should I do if flooding occurs in my area?

Stay informed through local news and follow guidance from authorities to ensure safety during flooding events.

How can I prepare for potential snow and ice?

Ensure your home heating is functioning, keep emergency supplies on hand, and stay updated on weather forecasts to manage travel plans.