Is Trump's Economic Progress a Mixed Bag of Hiring Woes and High Prices?

As Donald Trump campaigns for a second term, he has made improving the economy a central promise. A year into his presidency, many voters share their experiences regarding economic changes, revealing a mixed landscape where some feel improvements while others express ongoing struggles. This article explores what voters across the political spectrum are saying about the current state of the economy and whether their lives have improved since Trump returned to the White House.

Last updated: 10 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Trump's return to the presidency has sparked a renewed focus on economic policies, with many voters reflecting on their personal financial situations one year later. While some people report a positive turnaround in prices for essential goods, others express dissatisfaction with the current job market and rising costs. Overall, the sentiment is mixed, highlighting significant disparities in experiences across the country.

Key takeaways

• Some voters report improved prices for basic food items since Trump returned to office.
• Concerns about the job market persist, particularly among recent graduates.
• Voters express frustration over inflation and the rising cost of living.

Timeline: how we got here

The following timeline outlines key milestones in the economy since Trump took office again on 20 January 2023:

• 20 January 2023: Donald Trump reinstated as President of the United States.
• February 2023: Reports indicate rising inflation rates, particularly in fuel and food sectors.
• June 2023: Economic relief packages are introduced, aiming to tackle inflation concerns.
• September 2023: Voter sentiments regarding the economy begin to shift, with mixed responses reported.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent interviews with voters reveal a divided opinion on the economy, with some individuals reporting improvements in their local food prices, while others remain sceptical about Trump's assertions regarding job creation and economic growth.

What was already established

Concerns regarding inflation have been ongoing, with voters previously expressing frustration over rising costs for essential goods and services. The job market has also been a focal point, with reports suggesting challenges for new graduates in finding stable employment.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

While this article focuses primarily on the American perspective, the implications of the US economy can be felt globally, including in the UK. Increases in the cost of living in the US could potentially affect UK imports, especially in food and energy sectors, leading to price adjustments for consumers.

Businesses and jobs

For UK businesses, particularly those exporting to the US, the economic climate in America could impact trade relationships. If US consumers are struggling, demand for UK goods may decline, affecting jobs and revenues in various sectors.

Policy and regulation

Trump’s economic policies and their effectiveness will be closely watched as they may influence transatlantic trade agreements and economic strategies in the UK, especially in the context of the ongoing discussions surrounding post-Brexit trade frameworks.

Numbers that matter

• Childcare costs in the US reported at around $25,000 per year, impacting family budgets significantly.
• Some voters reported food prices dropping, notably from highs of $11 (£8.22) for eggs earlier in the year.
• Inflation rates have fluctuated, causing mixed perceptions about economic improvement.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Inflation: The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, eroding purchasing power.
• Shrinkflation: A phenomenon where products shrink in size or quantity while prices remain the same.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

As the administration continues to address economic concerns, voters will be monitoring any new policies or economic relief measures that may be introduced, particularly around inflation and job creation.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Looking ahead, it will be crucial to observe trends in employment rates, inflation statistics, and consumer confidence as the next election approaches. The effectiveness of Trump's economic strategies will likely play a significant role in his campaign.

Signals to watch

• Employment rates and job creation statistics.
• Inflation rates and consumer price indices.
• Public sentiment regarding the economy through surveys and polls.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about economic updates and policy changes from the government.
• Review personal budgets regularly to adapt to changing economic conditions.
• Consider diversifying income sources or savings strategies.

Don’t

• Don't overlook changes in the cost of living when budgeting.
• Don't hesitate to seek professional financial advice if needed.
• Don’t rely solely on political rhetoric; focus on personal economic realities.

Checklist

• Evaluate your current financial situation and adjust budgets accordingly.
• Research available support resources for families and individuals facing economic hardship.
• Track job openings relevant to your skills and industry.
• Monitor local and national economic news for updates that may affect your situation.
• Maintain savings for emergencies amidst economic uncertainty.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

There is considerable uncertainty regarding future economic conditions, particularly with ongoing geopolitical tensions that could influence the US economy. Additionally, the effectiveness of Trump's policies remains to be fully assessed, and public sentiment can shift rapidly based on new developments.

Bottom line

As voters reflect on their economic experiences since Trump returned to office, the mixed responses highlight the complexities of the current economic landscape. Individuals are experiencing varied impacts, and as the election draws near, how these sentiments evolve will likely shape the political discourse in the coming months.

FAQs

What impact has Trump's presidency had on the economy so far?

Many voters report mixed experiences, with some seeing improvements in food prices while others are concerned about inflation and job availability.

Are there signs of economic recovery under Trump?

While some indicators suggest a decline in inflation rates, many individuals still struggle with rising costs, especially in essential goods and services.

How do voters perceive job opportunities currently?

Recent graduates and job seekers express frustration over the job market, citing difficulties in finding stable employment despite claims of job growth from the administration.