Can Aston Villa Make It to the Europa League Last 16?

The 2024 UEFA Europa League final is set to take place on 20 May at the Besiktas Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey. As the league phase approaches its conclusion, the four British teams have experienced a mix of success and disappointment. Aston Villa has already secured their place in the last 16, while Nottingham Forest is fighting for a playoff spot, Celtic is on the brink of qualification, and Rangers have been eliminated.

Last updated: 29 January 2024 (BST)

What’s happening now

The current situation in the Europa League is tense as the final round of matches in the league phase approaches. Aston Villa has made significant progress, with their recent 1-0 victory over Fenerbahce securing them a comfortable position in the knockout stages. Unai Emery's side is not only through to the last 16 but also in a strong position to rest key players for their final group game against RB Salzburg.

Nottingham Forest, however, faces a more precarious situation after losing 1-0 to Braga. Although they remain mathematically in contention for a top-eight finish, they will need to win their next match against Ferencvaros and rely on favourable results elsewhere. Celtic is also in a tight spot after their 2-2 draw with Bologna, needing a victory against Utrecht to ensure their progression. Conversely, Rangers, having secured only one point from six games, are out of contention and will play for pride in their final match against Porto.

Key takeaways

Aston Villa has qualified for the last 16 with 18 points from seven matches.
Nottingham Forest is in the playoff zone but needs a win to secure their position.
Celtic must win against Utrecht to guarantee progression.
Rangers have been eliminated and will play their final match without any chance of advancement.
All matches on the final day kick off at 20:00 GMT on 29 January.

Timeline: how we got here

Here's a brief timeline of key events leading up to the final matches of the Europa League group stage:

20 October 2023: The group stage commenced, with teams vying for positions in the knockout rounds.
3 November 2023: Aston Villa began their campaign strongly, establishing themselves among the top contenders.
10 November 2023: Nottingham Forest and Celtic faced challenges but remained in contention for playoff spots.
1 December 2023: Rangers struggled throughout the group stage, securing only one point.
29 January 2024: The final round of matches will determine the last playoff teams and confirm the last 16.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent matches have clarified the standings in Group E, particularly Aston Villa's secure position in the last 16 and Nottingham Forest's need for a win to maintain playoff hopes. Celtic's draw against Bologna complicates their path to the knockout stage, while Rangers' elimination is now officially confirmed.

What was already established

The overall structure of the tournament, with the top teams progressing to the knockout rounds and the lower-ranked teams moving to playoff matches, has been clear since the start of the group stage. The rules regarding points and qualifying positions have guided team strategies throughout the competition.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The performance of British teams in the Europa League can impact fan engagement, local business revenues, and even travel arrangements for supporters hoping to attend matches. Successful teams often lead to increased merchandise sales and heightened interest in local pubs and restaurants during match days.

Businesses and jobs

For businesses connected to football, such as hospitality venues, the success of teams like Aston Villa can boost attendance and sales. Conversely, teams like Rangers, now eliminated, may see less business activity as fans turn their attention away from the competition.

Policy and regulation

UK football clubs must also navigate regulations set by UEFA, especially regarding financial fair play and player transfers. The performance of clubs in European competitions can influence future investments and strategies within the clubs, impacting local economies and job markets.

Numbers that matter

Aston Villa: 18 points secure them a spot in the last 16.
Nottingham Forest: Currently in 16th place, needing a win to ensure playoff participation.
Celtic: 8 points, sitting 24th and also requiring a win against Utrecht.
Rangers: 1 point from six matches, confirming their elimination.
Upcoming matches: All final games kick off at 20:00 GMT on 29 January.

Definitions and jargon buster

Europa League: A European football competition for club teams, below the UEFA Champions League in hierarchy.
Playoff: A series of matches that determine which teams qualify for the next round.
Knockout stage: The phase in a tournament where teams compete in elimination matches.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

As the final matches of the league phase unfold, clubs will focus on securing their standings. Aston Villa will look to maintain momentum, while Nottingham Forest and Celtic will aim for crucial wins to advance.

Medium term (1–6 months)

The transition into the knockout stage will bring heightened competition, and clubs must prepare for potential new signings and strategies as they face tougher opponents. This will also be critical for financial planning within clubs.

Signals to watch

Match results from the final day of the league phase on 29 January.
Performance metrics of teams in upcoming knockout matches.
Injury updates and player transfers leading into the knockout stage.

Practical guidance

Do

Follow the matches closely to see how your team performs.
Engage with local businesses offering match day promotions.
Keep updated on player conditions and team announcements.

Don’t

Miss the final matches as they will define playoff positions.
Underestimate the importance of fan support for the clubs.
Neglect the implications of financial regulations on club operations.

Checklist

Check the match schedule for 29 January.
Engage with your local football community.
Monitor team updates and player performances.
Consider attending local matches or events.
Stay informed about UEFA regulations impacting your club.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The unpredictability of final match outcomes poses risks for teams like Nottingham Forest and Celtic, who must secure wins to guarantee progression. Additionally, regulatory changes by UEFA could impact how clubs operate in the future. The current standings could shift dramatically based on the final results, making it essential for fans and clubs alike to remain vigilant.

Bottom line

The upcoming matches on 29 January will be pivotal for the British sides still in contention for the knockout stages of the Europa League. With Aston Villa already through, the focus shifts to Nottingham Forest and Celtic, who are both in critical positions. The outcomes will not only determine their immediate futures but could also have lasting implications for the clubs and their supporters.

FAQs

What is the Europa League?

The Europa League is a prestigious European football competition where club teams compete for the title, typically ranking below the UEFA Champions League.

When is the final of the Europa League?

The final of the Europa League will take place on 20 May 2024 at the Besiktas Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey.

Which British teams are still in contention?

Aston Villa has qualified for the last 16, while Nottingham Forest and Celtic are fighting for playoff spots. Rangers have been eliminated from the tournament.