Are Middle Powers Ready for New Challenges in a Shifting Global Order?

In a reflective keynote speech at Columbia University's Journalism School in January 2002, the speaker detailed the profound impact of American policy on global stability, particularly post-World War II. Highlighting the duality of American power, the speech drew poignant contrasts between the experiences of those within the "Imperial Citadel" of the US and those who feel its weight from the peripheries. This perspective remains relevant as the dynamics of global power shift once again.

Last updated: 20 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As geopolitical tensions rise and the landscape of global politics shifts, the reflections from 2002 resonate deeply today. The United States' approach to international relations is once again under scrutiny, especially as the current administration adopts a more unilateral stance reminiscent of past interventions. The underlying question remains: how will this affect the fragile balance of power and influence, particularly for nations that have historically been sidelined?

Key takeaways

• The duality of American power creates disparate experiences for those living within and outside its influence.
• Historical interventions by the US have shaped perceptions of its role on the global stage.
• The notion of a "rules-based international order" is increasingly questioned, especially among middle powers.

Timeline: how we got here

The past few decades have seen significant events that have shaped the current geopolitical climate:

• 1945: End of World War II; emergence of the US as a global superpower.
• 1947-1951: The Marshall Plan aids Europe's economic recovery.
• 1953: CIA orchestrates a coup in Iran to protect American oil interests.
• 1989: Collapse of communist regimes in Eastern Europe, signifying a victory for US-led ideals.
• 2001: September 11 attacks; the US embarks on a global "War on Terror."
• 2020: The emergence of "America First" policies under President Trump, signalling a shift in US foreign policy.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent discussions at international forums, such as Davos, highlight the growing discontent among allied nations regarding the US's unilateral approach to foreign policy. The current administration's intentions to prioritise national interests over collaborative efforts reflect a significant shift from traditional diplomatic practices.

What was already established

The historical narrative of American interventionism has long been established. From the Monroe Doctrine to Cold War tactics, the US has often positioned itself as a dominant force, sometimes at the expense of smaller nations. This pattern has created a legacy of distrust that continues to shape international relations.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

As the UK grapples with its own geopolitical positioning post-Brexit, the implications of American policies will directly affect trade agreements, economic stability, and consumer prices. The uncertainty around tariffs and trade relations could lead to increased costs for households.

Businesses and jobs

UK businesses, especially those dependent on transatlantic trade, may face challenges if American policies shift towards protectionism. Companies must adapt to changing regulations and potential market access issues as the US prioritises its own interests.

Policy and regulation

The UK government must navigate its relationship with the US carefully, balancing national interests with the need for collaboration on global issues such as climate change, security, and trade. Upcoming consultations and negotiations will be critical in defining this relationship.

Numbers that matter

• 2%: The percentage of GDP that NATO members were originally expected to spend on defence, which has now increased to 5% in response to US pressure.
• 60: The number of years since WWII, showcasing the long-standing nature of US influence and the evolution of international relations.
• 1954: The year of the CIA's involvement in the Guatemalan coup, illustrating a longstanding history of American interventionism in Latin America.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Monroe Doctrine: A US policy established in 1823 asserting that further European intervention in the Americas would be viewed as acts of aggression.
• Rules-based international order: A framework of international norms and agreements intended to promote peace and cooperation among nations.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Monitor the outcomes of recent international discussions regarding trade and security, as both the US and UK adapt their policies in light of shifting power dynamics.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Anticipate potential changes in the UK's foreign policy as they respond to the US's evolving stance on global issues, particularly in trade and military alliances.

Signals to watch

• New trade agreements or tariffs announced by the US that could impact the UK economy.
• Statements from NATO regarding collective defence spending commitments.
• Public sentiment and political discourse surrounding the UK's relationship with the US.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about international developments and how they may impact local economies.
• Engage with policymakers to advocate for fair trade practices and strong international relationships.

Don’t

• Ignore the implications of American foreign policy on global stability.
• Assume that historical patterns of intervention will not repeat themselves.

Checklist

• Review current trade agreements and their terms.
• Understand the implications of defence spending commitments.
• Monitor public sentiment regarding international relations.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The unpredictability of US foreign policy under the current administration raises significant risks for allied nations. The potential for arbitrary decisions and unilateral actions could destabilise existing alliances and lead to unexpected consequences. Additionally, the long-standing legacy of American interventionism suggests that historical patterns may resurface.

Bottom line

As the world witnesses a shift in the dynamics of power, the reflections from the past remind us that the security and stability of nations are fragile. The experiences shared by the young Pakistani student at Columbia provide a critical lens through which to view American actions and their global implications. The challenge ahead is for middle powers like the UK to navigate these turbulent waters effectively.

FAQs

What is the rules-based international order?

The rules-based international order refers to a framework of international norms and agreements that aim to promote peace and cooperation among countries, largely influenced by American ideals after World War II.

How has American foreign policy evolved over the years?

American foreign policy has shifted from a focus on collective security and alliances to a more unilateral approach that prioritises national interests, often at the expense of international cooperation.

What are the implications of the Monroe Doctrine?

The Monroe Doctrine established the US's right to intervene in the Western Hemisphere, asserting dominance over its neighbours and often leading to military interventions in the name of protecting American interests.