Will Welsh Police Powers Be Ignored in Major Reforms?

The ongoing debate around the devolution of policing powers to Wales has intensified following the UK Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's clear stance against granting the Welsh Parliament authority over how policing is managed. This situation highlights internal divisions within the Labour party, particularly as First Minister Eluned Morgan advocates for more devolved powers to ensure Wales' policing aligns with its unique needs. The proposed overhaul of policing, which could reduce the number of forces by two-thirds, raises significant questions about the future of law enforcement in Wales.

Last updated: 14 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As the Labour party grapples with its stance on policing devolution, the Home Secretary has firmly rejected the notion of transferring powers to the Welsh Parliament. This decision comes amidst calls from Welsh leaders for a system that better reflects local needs. Mahmood's recent white paper proposes significant changes to policing across England and Wales, potentially leading to major structural reforms, including substantial mergers of police forces. The Welsh government has expressed concerns that these plans might overlook local priorities, particularly in rural areas where community policing is vital.

Key takeaways

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood opposes devolving policing powers to the Welsh Parliament.
First Minister Eluned Morgan has called for devolution to align policing with Wales' health and education systems.
The Labour party remains divided over the issue, with some members supporting devolution and others prioritising urgent crime issues.

Timeline: how we got here

The debate over policing devolution in Wales has been ongoing for several years, with key moments including:

2019: The Welsh Government commission on justice argues for the devolution of policing, noting no rational basis for Wales being treated differently from Northern Ireland and Scotland.
October 2023: Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood publishes a white paper proposing major changes to policing structures, including the potential merger of police forces.
October 2023: First Minister Eluned Morgan calls for urgent devolution of policing in a speech warning against the rise of pro-independence parties.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The latest developments include the publication of the Home Office's white paper, which could lead to significant reductions in the number of police forces in England and Wales. Mahmood's firm rejection of devolution for Welsh policing also marks a critical moment in the ongoing discussions.

What was already established

Prior to these developments, there was an established consensus among many Welsh politicians advocating for the devolution of policing to allow for tailored approaches that reflect the needs of Welsh communities. The Labour party's internal divisions regarding this issue have been apparent for some time, with different factions advocating varying degrees of devolution.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The proposed changes to policing could affect crime rates and community safety in Wales. If local forces are merged, there may be concerns about response times and the ability of officers to engage with their communities effectively. Welsh households may also see changes in how policing priorities are set and funded.

Businesses and jobs

For businesses, the restructuring of police forces may impact local crime prevention strategies and the overall safety environment in which they operate. There could also be implications for jobs within the police as forces consolidate and restructure, potentially affecting local employment levels.

Policy and regulation

On a policy level, the Home Office's engagement with Welsh authorities regarding policing governance suggests a shift towards more collaborative discussions, albeit without conceding to calls for devolution. This may lead to new frameworks for cooperation but could also exacerbate tensions if local needs are not adequately addressed.

Numbers that matter

4: The number of police forces in Wales that may be merged into one under proposed restructuring.
66%: Potential reduction in the number of police forces across England and Wales according to the Home Office white paper.
3: Number of independent commissions that have recommended devolving justice and policing to Wales.

Definitions and jargon buster

Devolution: The transfer of powers from a central government to a regional or local government.
Senedd: The Welsh Parliament, responsible for making decisions on devolved matters.
Home Office: The UK government department responsible for immigration, security, and law and order.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, stakeholders in Wales will likely engage in discussions regarding the implications of the white paper and the structure of policing moving forward. Observers should monitor statements from both the Home Office and Welsh government for any emerging agreements or conflicts.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As plans for police force restructuring develop, the impact on local communities and policing effectiveness will become clearer. The response from local politicians and the public will be critical in shaping the final outcomes.

Signals to watch

Responses from Welsh MPs and local authorities regarding the proposed changes.
Public opinion on policing and safety in Wales, particularly relating to community engagement.
Any announcements from the Home Office regarding further consultations with Welsh ministers.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about local police developments and community safety initiatives.
Engage with local representatives regarding policing issues that affect your community.
Support initiatives that promote local accountability in policing.

Don’t

Assume that changes will automatically improve policing effectiveness without considering community needs.
Neglect the importance of local voices in discussions about policing structures.
Overlook the potential impact on crime rates and community safety when assessing the proposed reforms.

Checklist

Review your local police priorities and how they align with community needs.
Participate in community forums to discuss policing issues.
Stay updated on government announcements regarding policing reforms.
Advocate for transparency in the decision-making process around policing changes.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While the proposed reforms aim to streamline policing, there are significant uncertainties regarding their efficacy and impact on local communities. Merging police forces could dilute local knowledge and engagement, particularly in rural areas. Additionally, any political shifts following the upcoming elections could influence the direction of these reforms and their implementation.

Bottom line

The future of policing in Wales hangs in a delicate balance as the debate over devolution intensifies. The Home Secretary's refusal to grant powers to the Welsh Parliament complicates the situation, leaving local leaders to negotiate the best path forward. Moving ahead, it will be crucial for Welsh citizens to advocate for a policing structure that meets their unique needs while remaining engaged in the ongoing discussions about these transformative changes.

FAQs

Will policing powers be devolved to Wales?

Currently, the Home Secretary has stated that policing powers will not be devolved to Wales, despite calls from Welsh leaders for more local control.

What is the proposed change to police forces in Wales?

The recent white paper suggests that the number of police forces in England and Wales could be reduced by about two-thirds, potentially merging existing forces.

What are the benefits of devolving policing to Wales?

Proponents argue that devolving policing would enable the Welsh government to create policies that are more in line with local health and education systems, ensuring a tailored approach to law enforcement.