Why Did China Oust Its Top Military General?

The recent purging of top generals in China's People's Liberation Army (PLA), particularly Vice-Chairman Zhang Youxia and General Liu Zhenli, raises urgent questions about the motivations behind these actions and their implications for China's military effectiveness, especially concerning ambitions regarding Taiwan and regional conflicts. The shake-up reflects a significant leadership void and ongoing power struggles within the military, exacerbating concerns about decision-making and strategic direction.

Last updated: 05 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The removal of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from their positions has sent shockwaves through the upper echelons of the PLA. With the Central Military Commission (CMC), which oversees the armed forces, now reduced to just two members—Xi Jinping and General Zhang Shengmin—there are serious concerns about the military's cohesion and leadership stability. Analysts are speculating about the motivations behind these purges, ranging from anti-corruption measures to deeper political rivalries. The situation presents a critical juncture for China's military operations and strategic posture, particularly regarding Taiwan.

Key takeaways

The recent purge has left the PLA with only two leaders in the Central Military Commission.
Corruption allegations are cited as the official reason for the removals, but political motivations may also be at play.
The leadership vacuum could hinder military decision-making and operational effectiveness.

Timeline: how we got here

Here’s a brief timeline of key events leading to the current situation:

November 2012: Xi Jinping assumes leadership of China and initiates an anti-corruption campaign targeting various sectors, including the military.
September 2023: Reports emerge about growing tensions and factional struggles within the PLA.
October 2023: Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli are officially announced as under investigation for "serious violations of discipline and law," marking a significant escalation in the anti-corruption campaign.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The purging of Zhang and Liu has been publicly framed as a continuation of Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign, with official statements indicating they are under investigation for unspecified "serious violations." The CMC’s drastic reduction in members has triggered speculation about the stability and future direction of the PLA.

What was already established

It has been known for some time that Xi's anti-corruption campaign has targeted high-ranking officials within the PLA, with prior purges affecting several military leaders. The pervasive culture of suspicion and fear within the military was previously observed, but the extent of this latest upheaval is unprecedented.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

While the immediate impact on UK consumers may not be direct, the geopolitical tensions surrounding China's military ambitions—especially regarding Taiwan—could influence global markets, trade routes, and energy supplies. Heightened tensions may lead to economic instability, affecting consumer prices.

Businesses and jobs

UK businesses with ties to China may face increased risks due to the uncertainty surrounding the PLA's leadership. This could affect supply chains, especially in technology and defence sectors, where collaboration with Chinese firms is significant. Companies may need to reassess their risk exposure and prepare for potential disruptions.

Policy and regulation

The UK government may need to closely monitor developments in China, adjusting its defence and foreign policies accordingly. Increased military activity in the Asia-Pacific region could prompt discussions on alliances and partnerships among Western nations, particularly regarding support for Taiwan.

Numbers that matter

2: The number of remaining members in China's Central Military Commission after the recent purge.
75: The age of Zhang Youxia, reflecting a significant generational leadership change in the PLA.
7: The typical number of members in the CMC, indicating a drastic reduction in military leadership.

Definitions and jargon buster

PLA: People's Liberation Army, the combined military forces of the People's Republic of China.
CMC: Central Military Commission, the top military body in the Communist Party of China.
Corruption: The abuse of entrusted power for private gain, often linked to bribery and unethical conduct.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the coming weeks, analysts will be closely observing the reactions within the PLA and any further purges that may occur. The focus will also be on how these internal changes could affect operational readiness and military strategy.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Over the next few months, the dynamics within the PLA will likely continue to evolve, with potential shifts in focus toward military training and readiness. Observers will be looking for signs of consolidation of power by Xi Jinping and how this affects decision-making regarding Taiwan.

Signals to watch

Public statements from the Chinese government regarding military strategy and operations.
Changes in military exercises or deployments around Taiwan.
Any further announcements of investigations or purges within the military leadership.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about developments in China’s military and political landscape.
Monitor changes in UK-China relations and adjust business strategies accordingly.

Don’t

Assume that the recent purges will lead to a decrease in China's military ambitions.
Ignore the potential impacts on global markets and supply chains related to Chinese military actions.

Checklist

Review your business's exposure to Chinese markets.
Stay updated on UK government policy changes regarding military and trade relations with China.
Consider contingency plans for potential disruptions in supply chains linked to China.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The situation remains fluid, with speculation surrounding the motivations for the purges and the subsequent impact on military operations. While corruption is cited as the primary reason for the removals, the potential for factional infighting and political rivalries complicates the narrative. Observers should remain cautious about drawing conclusions without further evidence of the underlying causes and effects.

Bottom line

The recent upheaval within the PLA signifies a crucial moment in China’s military leadership, raising questions about its future operational capabilities and strategic direction. The power struggles within the military could have far-reaching implications, particularly concerning Taiwan and regional stability. Stakeholders in the UK should remain vigilant and prepared for potential shifts in the geopolitical landscape.

FAQs

What does the purge of PLA generals mean for China's military?

The purge indicates a significant leadership vacuum in the PLA, potentially impacting decision-making and operational effectiveness, especially concerning Taiwan.

How does this affect China's ambitions regarding Taiwan?

While the purge could complicate military operations, analysts believe it does not fundamentally alter China's ambitions to control Taiwan.

What are the implications for UK businesses?

UK businesses may need to reassess their exposure to China, particularly regarding supply chains and geopolitical risks following the military leadership changes.