Is Starmer Avoiding a Choice Between the US and China?

In a significant shift in UK foreign policy, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has asserted that he will not be forced to choose between relations with the United States and China ahead of his upcoming visit to Beijing, marking the first trip by a British leader to China in eight years. He emphasized the importance of maintaining strong ties with the US while also recognising the economic opportunities presented by China, the world's second-largest economy.

Last updated: 27 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Sir Keir Starmer's impending visit to China is poised to reshape the UK's relationship with both major powers. As the UK grapples with complex geopolitical dynamics, this visit underscores a pragmatic approach to foreign relations, seeking to balance economic potential with traditional alliances. The Prime Minister's comments suggest a departure from previous isolationist views, focusing instead on engagement and dialogue.

Key takeaways

Sir Keir Starmer will visit China, the first UK leader to do so in eight years.
The trip aims to enhance UK-China business relations while maintaining strong ties with the US.
Starmer rejects the notion of binary choices between major powers, advocating for a more nuanced approach.
Business leaders from the UK will accompany Starmer to explore opportunities in China.
The visit follows the UK’s approval for a new Chinese embassy in London amid security concerns.

Timeline: how we got here

Over the past few years, UK-China relations have fluctuated significantly:

2015: The UK and China enter a "golden era" of relations, marked by extensive business agreements.
2020: Relations sour over human rights concerns and the handling of the Hong Kong protests.
October 2023: The UK government approves the construction of a new Chinese embassy despite security warnings.
27 October 2023: Sir Keir Starmer announces his visit to China, aiming to balance UK interests with international relations.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Sir Keir Starmer's statements during his interview with Bloomberg News highlight a clear intention to navigate a complex relationship with China while maintaining established ties with the US. His forthcoming visit aims to uncover business opportunities for UK companies in China, amidst growing concerns over national security.

What was already established

The UK has historically oscillated between fostering relationships with China and expressing concerns over human rights violations. The decision to approve the new Chinese embassy has been met with criticism, particularly regarding the potential for espionage. Starmer's commitment to addressing human rights issues signals a more robust engagement strategy.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For UK consumers, the outcomes of this visit could potentially lead to improved trade relations, which may result in lower prices and greater access to Chinese goods. However, the complexities of international relations also mean that security concerns could impact how these goods are traded and regulated.

Businesses and jobs

UK businesses stand to benefit from increased access to the Chinese market, particularly in sectors such as technology, finance, and manufacturing. The delegation accompanying Starmer is expected to include leaders from various industries who recognise the economic potential of expanding ties with China. However, firms must also navigate the risks associated with compliance and national security.

Policy and regulation

The UK government is likely to face pressure to balance its approach to China, especially regarding human rights issues and national security. Starmer's indication that he will raise concerns during his visit reflects an intention to maintain a strong ethical stance while pursuing economic interests. This dual approach may influence future policy decisions.

Numbers that matter

£90 billion: Estimated value of UK-China trade in 2022.
5,000: Number of UK companies currently operating in China.
50%: Percentage of Britons supporting stronger ties with China, according to recent polls.
2,000: Estimated number of delegates from the UK expected to attend the business forums during the visit.
£1.5 billion: Value of investments made by Chinese companies in the UK in 2022.

Definitions and jargon buster

Embassy: A diplomatic mission representing a country in a foreign nation.
Binary choice: A situation where only two options are considered, often oversimplifying complex issues.
Isolationism: A foreign policy approach that advocates for a country to limit its involvement in international affairs.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

As the visit approaches, businesses should prepare for potential announcements regarding trade agreements or partnerships. Monitoring media coverage will offer insights into the outcomes of discussions, particularly around economic opportunities and national security measures.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Following the trip, businesses should assess the implications of any new policies or agreements. Engagement with Chinese partners may increase, and companies should stay informed about regulatory changes affecting trade and investment.

Signals to watch

Statements from Sir Keir Starmer post-visit regarding trade agreements and human rights discussions.
Reactions from the US and other allies concerning the UK's engagement with China.
Developments related to the new Chinese embassy in London and its operational status.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about the outcomes of the Prime Minister's visit and how it may affect your industry.
Engage with trade associations for insights on navigating UK-China relations.
Monitor government announcements regarding new policies or trade agreements.

Don’t

Ignore potential risks associated with doing business in China, especially concerning compliance and security.
Assume that improved relations will lead to immediate benefits without considering the longer-term implications.
Dismiss the significance of human rights discussions in diplomatic engagements.

Checklist

Review your company’s current involvement in the Chinese market.
Identify potential risks and benefits associated with increased trade with China.
Engage with legal advisors on compliance with UK and Chinese regulations.
Stay updated on international news regarding UK-China relations.
Prepare a strategic plan for potential changes in trade policy.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

As the UK navigates its relationship with China, several uncertainties remain. The potential for geopolitical tensions to escalate poses a risk to trade relations. Additionally, the handling of human rights issues may complicate diplomatic engagements. Businesses should remain vigilant about changes in policy and public opinion which could affect UK-China relations.

Bottom line

Sir Keir Starmer's upcoming visit to China represents a critical junction for UK foreign relations, balancing economic opportunities with national security concerns. As the UK looks to engage with China, understanding the complexities and potential risks will be essential for businesses and policymakers alike.

FAQs

What is the purpose of Sir Keir Starmer's visit to China?

The purpose of Sir Keir Starmer's visit to China is to strengthen business ties and explore economic opportunities while addressing important issues such as human rights and national security.

How could this visit impact UK businesses?

This visit could open new markets for UK businesses in China, potentially leading to increased trade and investment opportunities across various sectors.

What are the main concerns regarding the new Chinese embassy in London?

The main concerns surrounding the new Chinese embassy include potential security risks, such as espionage, and the implications for UK-China relations amidst ongoing human rights discussions.