What Does Starmer's China Reset Reveal About His Foreign Policy?

This week, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer embarked on a significant visit to China, which some refer to as engaging with China's "looking up economy." This term describes the country's tightly controlled state where the Chinese Communist Party's presence is pervasive, indicating that any substantial change must come from a clear directive from the top. Starmer's visit aims to foster diplomatic relations and explore new opportunities, especially following a long hiatus since the last UK prime minister visited China in 2018.

Last updated: 22 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Sir Keir Starmer's three-day trip to China has garnered significant attention, highlighting the UK’s desire to strengthen ties with the Asian superpower. During his visit, he met with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang in Beijing, followed by a trip to Shanghai. The UK government views this visit as a crucial step towards rebuilding relations that have been strained in recent years, particularly due to China’s human rights record and geopolitical maneuvers.

Key takeaways

Starmer’s visit marks the first by a UK prime minister in five years, signalling a shift in diplomatic strategy.
Chinese state media provided extensive coverage of the visit, indicating a warm reception.
Agreements reached include halving tariffs on UK whisky exports and potential visa changes for British visitors.
Concerns remain regarding China's human rights record and cybersecurity threats.
The visit aims to position the UK as a key player in a multipolar world.

Timeline: how we got here

The relationship between the UK and China has evolved significantly over the past few years. Key dates include:

2018: Theresa May’s last visit to China as Prime Minister.
2021: The UK imposed sanctions on Chinese officials over human rights abuses.
2022: Increased tensions over China's actions in Hong Kong and the Uyghur region.
October 2023: Sir Keir Starmer's visit aimed at re-establishing diplomatic ties.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

During his visit, Starmer announced several tentative agreements, including the potential abolition of visa requirements for British tourists visiting China for under 30 days. However, this change has yet to be confirmed by the Chinese government, which has only stated that it is "actively considering" the proposal.

What was already established

Prior to this visit, relations between the UK and China were at a low point, particularly due to accusations of human rights violations and security threats. The UK government had imposed sanctions on Chinese officials and expressed strong concerns over Hong Kong's political situation. Thus, the current visit is a marked shift towards engagement, albeit cautious.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For UK consumers, the potential halving of whisky tariffs could lead to lower prices for imported spirits. Additionally, improved relations may foster increased trade opportunities, impacting the availability of goods and services. However, concerns regarding human rights and cybersecurity remain at the forefront of the public discourse.

Businesses and jobs

Businesses accompanying the Prime Minister are optimistic that the visit could lead to new opportunities in the Chinese market, which is increasingly important for UK exports. The removal of sanctions on certain parliamentarians may also ease tensions, allowing for smoother business negotiations. However, companies must remain vigilant regarding the risks associated with operating in China.

Policy and regulation

Starmer’s visit signals a potential shift in UK foreign policy, focusing on increased engagement with China while balancing relationships with other global powers. Upcoming consultations and discussions will likely shape how the UK navigates its position in the international arena.

Numbers that matter

£600 million: The estimated value of whisky exports from the UK to China that could benefit from reduced tariffs.
30 days: The proposed length of stay for UK visitors to China without a visa, pending confirmation.
8 years: The gap between the last UK prime minister's visit and Starmer's recent trip.
18 minutes: The amount of airtime dedicated to Starmer's visit by Chinese state media, indicating its significance.
2: The number of significant meetings with top Chinese leaders during the visit.

Definitions and jargon buster

Looking up economy: A term used to describe China's controlled and state-driven economic environment, indicating a focus on positive growth and engagement.
Tariff: A tax imposed on imported goods, affecting prices and trade relations.
Uyghurs: An ethnic minority group in China facing significant human rights abuses, particularly in the Xinjiang region.
Sanctions: Restrictions placed on individuals or countries to influence behaviour, often related to human rights or security concerns.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the coming weeks, it will be crucial to monitor the Chinese government's response to the proposed visa changes and any further announcements regarding trade agreements. The UK government will also likely provide updates on the outcomes of discussions held during the visit.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Over the next few months, UK businesses should prepare for potential changes in trade regulations and tariffs. The success of Starmer’s visit will be assessed based on the tangible outcomes and agreements reached, particularly in sectors like technology and trade.

Signals to watch

Official announcements regarding the visa proposal for British visitors.
Changes in trade tariffs affecting UK exports to China.
Reports on human rights conditions and international reactions.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about developments related to UK-China trade agreements.
Engage with businesses that may benefit from improved relations.
Monitor government communications regarding security and trade policies.

Don’t

Ignore concerns regarding human rights abuses in China.
Assume that improved relations will lead to immediate benefits.
Overlook the potential risks associated with doing business in China.

Checklist

Review the impact of tariff changes on your business.
Consider the implications of visa changes for travel plans.
Stay updated on UK government policy shifts regarding China.
Evaluate your business's exposure to risks associated with China.
Engage with trade partners to discuss potential opportunities.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While the visit has been framed positively, critics remain sceptical about China's trustworthiness and the implications of closer ties. Human rights issues, cybersecurity threats, and the potential backlash from the United States all present challenges that could complicate the UK's diplomatic strategy. The evolving geopolitical landscape means that any agreements made could be subject to change based on international developments.

Bottom line

Sir Keir Starmer's visit to China represents a critical opportunity for the UK to re-establish ties with a key global player. However, the complexities of international relations require a careful balancing act. The outcomes from this visit will shape the future of UK-China relations and significantly impact various sectors within the UK.

FAQs

What is the significance of Sir Keir Starmer's visit to China?

Sir Keir Starmer's visit is significant as it marks the first by a UK prime minister in five years and aims to strengthen diplomatic and trade ties with China amidst a complex geopolitical landscape.

What agreements were made during the visit?

Agreements announced include halving tariffs on UK whisky exports and potential changes to visa requirements for British visitors to China, although these changes are not yet confirmed.

What are the concerns surrounding the UK-China relationship?

Concerns include China's human rights record, particularly regarding the Uyghurs, cybersecurity threats, and the geopolitical ramifications of closer ties with a state viewed as a potential adversary by some Western nations.