Will US and Russia's Resumed Military Contact Change Global Dynamics?

The US and Russia have recently agreed to re-establish high-level dialogue between their armed forces, marking a significant development in international relations. This renewed military communication aims to foster stability and transparency as both nations navigate ongoing tensions, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine and nuclear arms control.

Last updated: 29 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The agreement to revive high-level military dialogue was announced following meetings held in Abu Dhabi between senior US and Russian military officials, including General Alexus Grynkewich, the top US and NATO general in Europe. This dialogue aims to provide "consistent military-to-military contact" as both countries work towards a "lasting peace." The announcement comes in the context of broader negotiations concerning the extension of the New START nuclear arms treaty, which is set to expire shortly.

Key takeaways

The US and Russia are resuming high-level military dialogue to enhance communication and avoid misunderstandings.
This agreement follows a suspension of military communications in 2021 due to the Ukraine conflict.
The revival of talks may help facilitate negotiations on nuclear arms control and reduce the risk of escalation.

Timeline: how we got here

The relationship between the US and Russia has been tumultuous over the past few decades, characterised by periods of heightened tension and attempts at dialogue. Here’s a brief timeline of key events leading up to the current situation:

2010: The New START treaty is signed, limiting both nations to 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads.
2021: Military communication channels are suspended prior to Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
October 2023: High-level military dialogue is re-established following meetings in Abu Dhabi.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The significant news this week is the formal agreement to restart high-level military communications between the US and Russia. This development is seen as a constructive step towards de-escalation amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.

What was already established

Prior to this agreement, military contacts between the two nations had been largely suspended since 2021, following exacerbated tensions due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Previous attempts at dialogue had focused on preventing misunderstandings and reducing the risk of military escalation.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The renewed dialogue between the US and Russia may have indirect effects on UK consumers, particularly in terms of energy prices and security. As major players in global geopolitics, the actions of the US and Russia can influence market stability and energy supply chains in Europe, including the UK.

Businesses and jobs

For UK businesses, particularly those in the defence and energy sectors, the re-establishment of military dialogue may lead to increased stability in international relations. This could enhance investor confidence and promote economic activity, although ongoing tensions may continue to pose risks.

Policy and regulation

The UK government will likely monitor developments closely, especially regarding arms control and international security policies. Any changes in US-Russia relations could lead to shifts in UK defence strategies and diplomatic approaches to NATO and European security matters.

Numbers that matter

1,550: The maximum number of strategic nuclear warheads allowed under the New START treaty.
700: The cap on the number of deployed strategic bombers and missiles for both countries under the treaty.
2: The number of countries possessing over 90% of the world's nuclear weapons, highlighting the significance of US-Russia relations.

Definitions and jargon buster

New START: A bilateral treaty between the US and Russia aimed at reducing and limiting strategic offensive arms.
NATO: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a military alliance of North American and European countries.
Military-to-military contact: Direct communication channels established between armed forces to reduce the risk of conflict.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, the focus will likely be on the outcomes of the renewed military dialogue and any resulting agreements regarding nuclear arms control. Observers should watch for announcements from both governments regarding further negotiations.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Should the dialogue prove fruitful, we may see an extension of the New START treaty or new agreements that address broader security concerns. Additionally, ongoing discussions may lead to additional channels of communication being established.

Signals to watch

Statements from military officials regarding the outcomes of ongoing dialogues.
Changes in military deployments or activities in response to renewed talks.
Reactions from NATO and other allied nations concerning US-Russia relations.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about developments in US-Russia relations, especially concerning military and nuclear policies.
Monitor government statements for updates on any policy changes that may affect international security.

Don’t

Assume that renewed dialogue will immediately resolve all tensions; change may take time.
Neglect to consider how these developments could impact UK security and economic interests.

Checklist

Review news sources regularly for updates on military dialogues.
Engage with policy discussions regarding defence strategies that may arise from these talks.
Consider the broader implications for UK relations with both the US and Russia.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While the resumption of dialogue is a positive step, it is essential to approach these developments with caution. There are uncertainties surrounding the effectiveness of the renewed communications, especially given the history of tensions and breakdowns in dialogue. Additionally, the potential for miscalculations or provocations remains a concern as both nations navigate complex geopolitical landscapes.

Bottom line

The re-establishment of high-level military dialogue between the US and Russia offers a glimmer of hope for improved relations amid ongoing tensions, particularly related to the Ukraine conflict and nuclear arms control. As these talks unfold, their implications will be significant for the UK and global security. Being informed about these developments is crucial for understanding their potential impact on international relations.

FAQs

What is the significance of the US-Russia military dialogue?

The US-Russia military dialogue aims to prevent misunderstandings and escalation, fostering stability between the two largest nuclear powers.

How does the New START treaty impact nuclear arms control?

The New START treaty limits both the US and Russia to 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads, providing a legal framework for nuclear arms control that is critical for global security.

What are the potential benefits of renewed US-Russia talks?

Renewed talks may facilitate arms control negotiations, reduce tensions, and help prevent military escalations, ultimately contributing to international peace and stability.