Could McSweeney's Exit Spell Trouble for the PM?

The recent departure of Morgan McSweeney as Sir Keir Starmer's chief adviser has sparked a wave of speculation regarding the future direction of Labour Party politics. McSweeney's influence over Starmer's leadership has been profound, and his exit raises critical questions about Sir Keir's ability to navigate the political landscape without his trusted strategist. This situation becomes even more pressing given McSweeney's controversial advice regarding Lord Mandelson's appointment as the UK's ambassador to Washington.

Last updated: 10 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The resignation of Morgan McSweeney marks a significant turning point for Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour Party. McSweeney played a pivotal role in Starmer's rise, having been instrumental in shaping the party's strategy and direction. However, his advice regarding the controversial appointment of Lord Mandelson has been a major misstep, leading to his departure. This incident illuminates the fragility of Starmer's leadership and the challenges he faces in maintaining unity and direction within the party.

Key takeaways

McSweeney's departure leaves a power vacuum in Starmer's inner circle.
The controversy over Lord Mandelson's appointment highlights vulnerabilities in Labour's leadership structure.
Starmer's ability to lead effectively without his chief strategist is now in question.

Timeline: how we got here

The timeline of events leading to McSweeney's departure is critical to understanding the current political climate within Labour:

2015: Jeremy Corbyn becomes Labour leader, ushering in a left-leaning agenda.
2020: Sir Keir Starmer is elected as Labour leader, with McSweeney's support helping to solidify his position.
Autumn 2024: McSweeney advises on Lord Mandelson's appointment, which becomes controversial due to Mandelson’s past connections.
October 2023: McSweeney resigns amid fallout from the Mandelson incident.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

McSweeney’s resignation is a significant event, particularly as it comes at a time when Labour is preparing for upcoming elections. His exit is perceived as a loss of strategic depth for Starmer, who may struggle to find a suitable replacement quickly. McSweeney's loyalists have expressed frustration, arguing that the criticism directed at him overlooks the collective responsibility of the advisory team.

What was already established

McSweeney's reputation as a formidable strategist has been well-documented. His role in shaping Labour's centrist pivot and managing party dynamics during Starmer's leadership has been pivotal. However, the recent controversy surrounding Lord Mandelson has cast a shadow over his legacy, revealing the complexities and challenges of political advisement in a turbulent environment.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For the general public, McSweeney's resignation may seem distant, but the ramifications could affect Labour's electoral strategies and policies that directly impact households. Voter sentiments towards Labour's leadership could hinge on how effectively Starmer manages to reposition the party post-McSweeney.

Businesses and jobs

The political uncertainty can create a ripple effect impacting business confidence. Labour, under Starmer, has aimed to appeal to the business community, and any perceived instability could hinder that relationship, affecting hiring and investment decisions.

Policy and regulation

Starmer's leadership will face scrutiny regarding upcoming policy decisions, particularly in light of the criticism over the Mandelson appointment. The Labour Party will need to reassess its strategies to maintain credibility and public support.

Numbers that matter

37: The number of Scottish Labour MPs who may influence Starmer's leadership prospects.
1: The single most significant strategic advisor (McSweeney) now absent from Starmer’s team.
2015: The year when Labour's leadership shifted dramatically under Jeremy Corbyn.

Definitions and jargon buster

McSweeney: Morgan McSweeney, former chief adviser to Sir Keir Starmer.
Labour Party: A major political party in the UK, traditionally representing the working class.
Lord Mandelson: A prominent Labour politician with a controversial past, recently recommended for a diplomatic role.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate aftermath of McSweeney's resignation, Sir Keir Starmer will need to consolidate his leadership and reassure party members. This involves addressing the concerns raised by the Mandelson controversy while seeking to maintain a cohesive strategy as elections approach.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Starmer will likely need to redefine Labour's identity and messaging, focusing on gaining traction in key voter demographics. The party must address potential divisions and present a united front ahead of crucial elections.

Signals to watch

Reactions from Labour backbenchers, especially Scottish MPs.
Polling results reflecting public sentiment towards Labour’s leadership.
Strategic decisions made by Starmer regarding party direction and policy.

Practical guidance

Do

Monitor updates on Labour's leadership and strategy shifts.
Engage with local party activities to gauge grassroots sentiment.
Stay informed on upcoming elections and Labour's campaign strategies.

Don’t

Dismiss the importance of McSweeney’s departure; it could have wider implications.
Assume that the current turmoil will not affect electoral outcomes.
Overlook the role of public perception in shaping Labour’s future.

Checklist

Review Labour's recent polling data.
Assess the party's communication strategy post-McSweeney.
Identify key constituencies where Labour must regain support.
Engage with party members for feedback on leadership changes.
Stay updated on any statements from Sir Keir Starmer regarding future plans.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

There are significant uncertainties surrounding the impact of McSweeney's exit. The reaction from Labour MPs and the general public could vary, and the effectiveness of Starmer's leadership without McSweeney remains to be seen. Additionally, the implications of Lord Mandelson's past may continue to haunt the party, influencing voter perceptions and party unity.

Bottom line

The departure of Morgan McSweeney represents a critical juncture for Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour Party. As Labour grapples with its identity and strategic direction, Starmer's leadership will be put to the test in the coming weeks and months. How he navigates these challenges will determine the party’s viability heading into future elections.

FAQs

Who is Morgan McSweeney?

Morgan McSweeney was Sir Keir Starmer's chief adviser, known for his significant influence on Labour's strategy and direction during Starmer's leadership.

What led to McSweeney's resignation?

McSweeney resigned following controversial advice regarding the appointment of Lord Mandelson as the UK ambassador to Washington, which generated substantial backlash.

How will Labour be affected by McSweeney's departure?

The Labour Party may face challenges in maintaining its strategic direction without McSweeney, impacting its approach to upcoming elections and party cohesion.