Are Off-the-Shelf Drones Transforming Jihadist Warfare in West Africa?

The rise of drone strikes by jihadist groups in West Africa, particularly by affiliates of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, is alarming for regional security and stability. With at least 69 recorded drone strikes since 2023, these groups are enhancing their capabilities to conduct warfare from the skies, raising concerns among security analysts and governments in the region.

Last updated: 02 February 2024 (BST)

What’s happening now

The use of drones by jihadist groups in West Africa has escalated significantly, with recent reports indicating that these militants are employing commercially available quadcopters rigged with explosives for both attack and reconnaissance purposes. The latest incidents highlight this troubling trend, including a coordinated assault on a military base in Nigeria's Borno state on 29 January, where nine soldiers were killed. This marks a critical development in the operational tactics of these groups, enabling them to conduct attacks with reduced risk and increased precision.

Key takeaways

• At least 69 drone strikes have been recorded in Burkina Faso and Mali by al-Qaeda affiliates since 2023.
• The Islamic State's West Africa Province (Iswap) has conducted approximately 20 drone attacks, primarily in Nigeria.
• Jihadists are using commercially available drones, which are smuggled into the region despite strict government controls.

Timeline: how we got here

Since the beginning of 2023, the situation regarding drone warfare in West Africa has evolved rapidly. Below is a brief timeline highlighting key events:

• January 2023: Reports emerge of increased drone usage by jihadist groups in West Africa.
• 29 January 2024: Iswap launches a two-pronged attack on a military base in Borno state, Nigeria, killing nine soldiers.
• 29 January 2024: The Islamic State of Sahel Province (ISSP) attacks the international airport in Niamey, Niger, with possible drone involvement.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The recent attacks on military installations in Nigeria and Niger indicate a significant escalation in drone warfare capabilities among jihadist groups. The use of drones for both offensive and reconnaissance purposes suggests a tactical shift that could enhance their operational effectiveness.

What was already established

Prior to these attacks, it was known that jihadist groups in the Sahel region were increasingly adopting unconventional tactics, including the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and suicide bombings. However, the integration of drone technology represents a marked evolution in their operational capacity.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

While the direct impact of these developments on UK households may seem remote, the implications for global security and stability are significant. Increased instability in West Africa could lead to heightened security concerns, affecting international travel and foreign investments.

Businesses and jobs

For UK businesses operating in or with ties to West Africa, the rise of drone warfare could necessitate reassessments of risk management strategies. Companies may need to consider increased security measures and potential disruptions in supply chains due to ongoing conflicts.

Policy and regulation

The UK government may need to reassess its foreign policy and support mechanisms for West African nations grappling with rising jihadist threats. This could include increased military and humanitarian assistance, as well as collaboration on counter-terrorism strategies.

Numbers that matter

• 69 drone strikes by al-Qaeda affiliates in Burkina Faso and Mali since 2023.
• Approximately 20 drone attacks conducted by Iswap in Nigeria.
• 9 soldiers killed in the Borno state military base attack on 29 January 2024.
• 4 military personnel injured in the ISSP attack on Niger's international airport.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Drone Warfare: The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to conduct military operations, including surveillance and attacks.
• Iswap: Islamic State West Africa Province, an affiliate of the Islamic State operating primarily in Nigeria.
• JNIM: Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, an al-Qaeda affiliate active in West Africa.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, military responses to the drone threat will likely increase, with regional governments focusing on counter-drone technologies and intelligence operations to preempt further attacks.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Over the next few months, it will be crucial for West African nations to collaborate on security measures to counteract the drone capabilities of jihadist groups, potentially involving international partnerships for technology and training.

Signals to watch

• Increased reports of drone activity in conflict zones.
• Military responses to drone strikes, including targeted operations against jihadist leaders.
• International support measures for West African governments.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about the security situation in West Africa if travelling or doing business in the region.
• Engage with local authorities about safety measures and protocols.

Don’t

• Underestimate the potential for escalated violence in the region.
• Ignore advice from security experts regarding risk management.

Checklist

• Review travel plans and security assessments if travelling to or engaging in business in West Africa.
• Monitor news and updates from reliable sources regarding the situation.
• Consult expert analyses on potential risks and operational changes.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The evolving nature of drone warfare in West Africa presents several uncertainties. The exact scale of drone capabilities among jihadist groups is difficult to quantify, and ongoing conflicts may result in rapidly changing dynamics. Moreover, the international response to these developments remains uncertain, with varying levels of commitment from global powers to address the root causes of extremism in the region.

Bottom line

The increasing use of drones by jihadist groups in West Africa is a significant escalation in their operational capabilities, posing new challenges for regional security. Governments must enhance their military readiness and international cooperation to counteract this emerging threat effectively.

FAQs

What jihadist groups are using drones in West Africa?

Both al-Qaeda affiliates like Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State affiliates such as Iswap are increasingly using drones for attacks and reconnaissance in West Africa.

How many drone strikes have been recorded in the region?

Since 2023, there have been at least 69 drone strikes attributed to al-Qaeda affiliates and around 20 by Islamic State affiliates in West Africa.

What are the implications of drone warfare in West Africa?

The rise of drone warfare can lead to increased casualties, greater operational effectiveness for jihadist groups, and heightened instability, impacting both regional security and international relations.