Is Bangladesh's Youth Turning Against India?

The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh, particularly following the July 2024 uprising that ousted Sheikh Hasina, has created a significant shift in the country's relationship with India. The rise of anti-Indian sentiment among the youth, driven by perceived Indian interference in Bangladeshi politics, is reshaping national discourse and is evident in the graffiti that adorns the walls of Dhaka University. As the nation gears up for its first genuine electoral experience on 12 February, the political landscape remains fraught with uncertainty, particularly regarding the implications for India-Bangladesh relations.

Last updated: 06 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

In the wake of Sheikh Hasina's resignation, Bangladesh is undergoing a pivotal moment in its history, with Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus stepping in as the leader of the interim government. The upcoming elections are set against a backdrop of deepening anti-Indian sentiment, particularly among the younger demographic, who feel that India's involvement in Bangladeshi politics has long been detrimental to their democratic aspirations. The political discourse is increasingly charged, leading to graffiti slogans that echo these sentiments, such as "Dhaka, not Delhi."

Key takeaways

Sheikh Hasina's resignation marks a significant political shift in Bangladesh.
The upcoming elections on 12 February 2024 will be pivotal for the country's democratic future.
Anti-Indian sentiment is on the rise, particularly among younger Bangladeshis.
The Awami League, Hasina's party, has been barred from contesting in the elections.
India's support for Hasina's regime has led to perceptions of betrayal among Bangladeshi citizens.

Timeline: how we got here

The political crisis in Bangladesh has evolved rapidly over the past few years, with significant milestones shaping the current landscape:

2014: Controversial elections marred by allegations of one-party dominance and Indian endorsement.
2018: Another disputed election further solidified perceptions of India's interference.
2024: Widespread protests lead to Sheikh Hasina's resignation amid violent crackdowns, with the UN reporting approximately 1,400 deaths.
August 2024: Hasina flees to India, where she remains in exile.
12 February 2024: Scheduled elections, marking a critical juncture for Bangladesh's democracy.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent developments include the significant rise in anti-Indian sentiment among young Bangladeshis, as seen through political graffiti and public discourse on social media. The interim government under Yunus is also exploring new alliances to counteract the Awami League's absence from the electoral process.

What was already established

It has been long established that India has maintained a close relationship with the Awami League and Sheikh Hasina’s administration, often perceived as an endorsement of authoritarian practices that have eroded democracy in Bangladesh. Historical grievances over border issues and water-sharing disputes have also contributed to the deteriorating relationship.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

As political tensions escalate, UK businesses with interests in Bangladesh may face uncertainties, particularly in trade and investment opportunities. Consumers may experience indirect impacts, such as fluctuations in product availability or prices due to supply chain disruptions that could arise from political instability.

Businesses and jobs

UK companies operating in Bangladesh may need to reassess their risk exposure in light of the changing political climate. The potential for economic sanctions or heightened scrutiny on trade agreements could affect sectors reliant on Bangladeshi exports.

Policy and regulation

UK policymakers will need to monitor the evolving situation closely, as instability in Bangladesh could have broader implications for regional security and trade. Diplomatic efforts may focus on encouraging democratic processes and addressing human rights concerns.

Numbers that matter

1,400: Estimated number of deaths during the 2024 security crackdown.
30%: The popular vote share commanded by the Awami League prior to its disqualification from upcoming elections.
4,096km (2,545 miles): Length of the border shared between India and Bangladesh, highlighting the geographical ties despite political rifts.
£13.5 billion: The current bilateral trade volume between India and Bangladesh, which could increase with improved diplomatic relations.
54: The number of rivers shared between India and Bangladesh, underscoring the interdependence of the two nations.

Definitions and jargon buster

Awami League: The oldest political party in Bangladesh, historically associated with pro-independence sentiments and secular policies.
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP): The main opposition party in Bangladesh, traditionally seen as more conservative and nationalist compared to the Awami League.
Jamaat-e-Islami: An Islamist political party in Bangladesh that has been part of various coalitions and has a controversial history regarding its role during the Bangladesh Liberation War.
Hegemony: Dominance of one group over others; in this context, refers to India's perceived influence over Bangladeshi politics.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, the focus will be on the upcoming elections scheduled for 12 February 2024. The interim government will need to ensure a fair and inclusive electoral process to restore public trust and legitimacy.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Post-election, the new government will likely need to navigate complex relationships with India, especially in light of ongoing anti-Indian sentiment within the population. Establishing diplomatic channels to address historical grievances will be crucial.

Signals to watch

Election outcomes and the formation of a new government.
Public sentiment towards India, particularly in response to political rhetoric.
Developments in India-Bangladesh diplomatic relations, especially regarding trade and security.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about the evolving political landscape in Bangladesh.
Engage with local communities to understand their perspectives and grievances.
Monitor trade developments and adjust business strategies accordingly.

Don’t

Assume that past relationships will dictate future interactions between India and Bangladesh.
Ignore the rising anti-Indian sentiment among the younger population.
Overlook the importance of inclusive governance in restoring public trust.

Checklist

Review and update risk assessments for investments in Bangladesh.
Engage with local stakeholders to build relationships and understand concerns.
Prepare contingency plans for potential trade disruptions.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The evolving political situation in Bangladesh is fraught with uncertainty, particularly regarding the outcome of the upcoming elections and their implications for India-Bangladesh relations. Analysts caution against oversimplifying the relationship, as historical grievances and recent events may create challenges in rebuilding trust. The potential for civil unrest and political violence remains a concern as public sentiment continues to harden.

Bottom line

The current political climate in Bangladesh presents both challenges and opportunities for India-Bangladesh relations. With the upcoming elections serving as a critical juncture, stakeholders must navigate the complexities of public sentiment and historical grievances to foster a more constructive partnership. A reset in relations, while difficult, is not impossible and will require sincere engagement from all parties involved.

FAQs

What sparked the recent political upheaval in Bangladesh?

The July 2024 uprising, driven by widespread discontent with Sheikh Hasina's increasingly autocratic rule, ultimately led to her resignation and increased anti-Indian sentiment among the populace.

How has India's role influenced Bangladeshi politics?

India's support for Sheikh Hasina's regime during her tenure is viewed by many Bangladeshis as complicity in the erosion of democracy, fostering feelings of betrayal and resentment.

What are the implications of the upcoming elections for Bangladesh?

The elections on 12 February 2024 will be significant for restoring democratic processes in Bangladesh, especially as it represents the first genuine electoral experience for many young voters.