Will Zimbabwe's President Secure an Extended Term?

The recent approval by Zimbabwe's cabinet of draft legislation that could allow President Emmerson Mnangagwa to extend his stay in office until at least 2030 has significant implications for the country's political landscape. Under the proposed changes, presidential elections would shift from direct public votes to selections by Members of Parliament (MPs), with terms extended from five to seven years. This move raises questions about governance, democracy, and potential legal challenges regarding constitutional amendments, especially given the contentious nature of Mnangagwa's leadership.

Last updated: 09 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The Zimbabwean cabinet's approval of the draft legislation marks a pivotal moment in the nation's governance. If enacted, it would allow President Mnangagwa to serve additional terms potentially extending his presidency until 2037. This proposal is seen as an effort by the ruling Zanu-PF party to entrench its power, especially given its dominance in both chambers of parliament. The Justice Minister, Ziyambi Ziyambi, indicated that public consultations would precede parliamentary debate, but the outcome is anticipated to favour the ruling party, raising concerns about the true democratic process in Zimbabwe.

Key takeaways

• The proposed legislation could extend Mnangagwa's presidency until at least 2030.
• Presidential elections may shift from direct public votes to being determined by MPs.
• Potential legal challenges could arise regarding the need for a referendum on term limit changes.

Timeline: how we got here

Understanding the timeline of events leading to this legislative proposal is crucial for grasping its significance:

• 1980: Zimbabwe gains independence; Robert Mugabe becomes prime minister.
• 2013: A new constitution is adopted, introducing presidential term limits.
• 2017: Mnangagwa ascends to power after a military coup ousts Mugabe.
• 2023: Mnangagwa wins a disputed second term.
• October 2023: Cabinet approves draft legislation to potentially extend Mnangagwa’s presidency.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The most significant development is the approval of the draft legislation by Zimbabwe's cabinet, which has sparked debates about its implications for democracy and governance. Public consultations are set to be held, but the ruling Zanu-PF party's control over parliament suggests a favourable outcome for the proposed changes.

What was already established

Previously, constitutional experts have argued that any change to the term limits necessitates a referendum, as established in the 2013 constitution. Critics of Mnangagwa have highlighted that amendments benefiting a sitting president could be legally challenged. Furthermore, the public's discontent has been evident, as shown by the recent death of Blessed Geza, a prominent critic of Mnangagwa's ambitions.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For UK residents with ties to Zimbabwe, the political stability of Zimbabwe can affect diaspora remittances and trade relations. The potential extension of Mnangagwa’s presidency may lead to continued economic challenges, which could impact Zimbabweans abroad and their families back home.

Businesses and jobs

For UK businesses engaged in trade with Zimbabwe, the proposed changes might signal an unstable business environment, particularly if legal challenges arise. Economic reform efforts may stall, affecting sectors reliant on foreign investment and trade.

Policy and regulation

The UK's engagement with Zimbabwe may also be affected by these developments. Should the situation deteriorate due to political instability or civil unrest, the UK government may need to reassess its diplomatic and economic strategies towards Zimbabwe.

Numbers that matter

• 2: The maximum number of seven-year terms proposed for future presidents.
• 5: The current length of presidential terms in Zimbabwe.
• 2030: The year through which Mnangagwa could potentially extend his presidency.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Zanu-PF: Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front, the ruling political party in Zimbabwe.
• Referendum: A direct vote in which an entire electorate is invited to vote on a particular proposal and can result in the adoption of a new law.
• MPs: Members of Parliament, elected officials who represent the electorate in parliament.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Public consultations regarding the proposed legislation will likely take place, providing an opportunity for citizens to voice their opinions. Observers should monitor these sessions for signs of public sentiment regarding the changes.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the bill progresses to parliament, scrutiny will increase, especially from legal experts and opposition parties. The potential for legal challenges could emerge, which would impact the timeline of the proposed changes.

Signals to watch

• Public reaction during consultations.
• Debates in parliament regarding the proposed legislation.
• Potential legal challenges or calls for a referendum.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about the legislative process and public consultations.
• Engage with community leaders and organisations advocating for democratic governance.
• Monitor news for updates on potential legal challenges to the proposed legislation.

Don’t

• Ignore the implications of governance changes on economic stability.
• Assume that public sentiment will be adequately reflected in parliamentary debates.
• Engage in partisan politics without understanding the broader implications for democracy.

Checklist

• Have you reviewed the proposed changes to the legislation?
• Are you aware of the public consultation dates and venues?
• Have you engaged with civil society organisations advocating for democratic reforms?

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

There are significant uncertainties surrounding the proposed legislative amendments. Legal experts have raised concerns about the constitutional validity of extending term limits, which could lead to protracted legal battles. The political climate remains volatile, with the potential for civil unrest should the public feel disenfranchised. Furthermore, the recent death of a prominent critic of Mnangagwa signifies the risks faced by dissenters, complicating the political landscape further.

Bottom line

The proposed changes to presidential term limits in Zimbabwe are indicative of a broader struggle over power and democratic governance. The potential for President Mnangagwa to extend his presidency raises serious questions about the future of democracy in Zimbabwe, and it is crucial for both Zimbabweans and the international community to remain vigilant as events unfold.

FAQs

What are the key changes proposed in the legislation?

The proposed legislation aims to extend presidential terms from five to seven years and change the election process from direct public voting to selection by Members of Parliament (MPs).

When could President Mnangagwa potentially leave office?

If the legislation passes, President Mnangagwa could remain in office until at least 2030, with the possibility of extending his presidency further.

What legal challenges may arise from these proposals?

Legal experts suggest that a referendum may be necessary for any changes to term limits, which could lead to challenges regarding the constitutionality of the proposed amendments benefiting a sitting president.